The Afghan Migrant Crisis Becomes Serious

The Afghan Migrant Crisis is Becoming Serious

The Afghan Migrant Crisis is Becoming Serious. According to Iran Gate, a recent claim by an Iranian publication suggests that Afghan migrants in Iran are seeking to have representation in the Islamic Consultative Assembly. If this claim is true, it indicates an intensification of the Afghan illegal migration crisis in Iran, a crisis that threatens the country’s economic, social, and even political security.

The issue of illegal migrants in Iran has been a hot topic from the 1990s to the present, sometimes intensifying and at other times subsiding. However, the return of the Taliban to political power in Afghanistan once again led to a surge of Afghans at the eastern borders of the country, resulting in an unprecedented wave of illegal migrants in Iran.

Experts believe that if the Islamic Republic cannot manage the issue, it will inevitably face various crises of different scales across the country in the not-too-distant future. Some domestic media also believe that a deep and dangerous divide is forming between Iranian citizens and illegal migrants, which will have widespread implications for Iran’s national interests.

The Middle East: The Center of the Migrant Crisis

Large migrations in history have occurred following wars, famines, and pandemics. However, in the current era, the Middle East is by far the host of the largest migrations of this kind. The continuous wars in the region have been the main factor in the formation of millions of migrations throughout the Middle East.

Iran as a Host for War Refugees in the Middle East

Iran is one of the countries involved in this crisis. Not only is Iran recognized as one of the most significant migrant-sending countries in the region and even the world, but it is also one of the main destinations for war refugees and illegal migrants globally. Naturally, Iran has played a role as the primary destination for Afghan migrants and, at times, Pakistani and Iraqi migrants.

However, the issue of Afghan migrants began almost simultaneously with the 1979 revolution in Iran. But in the years following the eight-year war with the Ba’athist regime of Iraq, and as the country became more secure, a new wave of Afghan migrants flowed into Iran. This wave halted with the fall of the Islamic Taliban government after the U.S. attack on Afghanistan, resulting in a negative migration of Afghans residing in Iran.

This trend continued until the end of Hamid Karzai’s government. However, with the change of government in Kabul and the disruption of relative economic stability in the country, the migration market to Iran flourished once again. This trend continued more or less until two years ago, but after the fall of Ashraf Ghani’s government and the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan, an unprecedented wave of Afghan migrants poured into Iran.

This wave has been so intense over the past two years that it has prompted an unprecedented reaction from Iranian citizens against Afghan migrants. Reactions that, from the perspective of sociologists and national security experts, could have serious economic, political, and social security implications for the country.

Citizen-Migrant Divide

Last week, some domestic media reported that the Afghan illegal migrant crisis has entered a new and dangerous phase, referred to as the Iranian-Afghan divide. It seems to have sounded a serious alarm for Iranians. A divide that can encompass various aspects from the economy to politics and lead to a precarious situation.

The exaggerated headlines published in some media indicate that there are entities in the country that, consciously or unconsciously, are fueling this divide. Headlines that, in only a few instances, have a hint of reality but are quickly spread among the people. Experts believe that this xenophobic sentiment, which has always been alive among Iranians, has now turned into Afghanophobia and Arabophobia. However, since the presence of Arabs in Iran is not significant enough to be provocative, the widespread presence of Afghans has caused this sentiment to intensify at an incredible speed.

Population of Afghan Migrants in Iran

One of the false news stories published in the media is the announcement of incorrect and unrealistic numbers for the population of Afghans residing in Iran. In recent days, there have even been claims of more than 10 million Afghans in Iran. Some have also claimed that 75% of births in the outskirts of Tehran are related to Afghan migrant women.

However, the reality is that such statistics are not only exaggerated, but the actual numbers are less than half of 10 million. Some non-governmental surveys indicate the presence of approximately four and a half million Afghans in Iran. Of course, this number is also very concerning and would worry any expert about the implications of the continued presence of this population in the country.

It should be noted that the figure of 4.5 million accounts for 5% of the country’s total population, mainly scattered in the eastern and northern parts of Iran. In other words, one could claim that the demographic composition in many eastern cities of the country has changed significantly and noticeably.

Political and Security Divide

Among the rumors and exaggerated news that have spread rapidly is the use of Afghan illegal migrants to suppress Iranian protesters by the Islamic Republic. Although the Islamic Republic has a history of using foreign forces in cross-border operations, there has never been such an occurrence of using foreign forces in domestic operations. Official and specialized security agencies have not reported any activities in this regard.

However, the very fact that such rumors are spreading indicates the severity of the situation and the deepening of the divide previously mentioned. Yet, one should never overlook the dangers posed by the uncontrolled presence of Afghan migrants in Iran. One of these dangers could be serious threats to the political system governing Iran, including the recent issue raised about migrants’ efforts to have representation in the Iranian parliament.