Harris’s Tough Days
With less than a month remaining until the U.S. presidential election, a new series of polls has been released during Harris’s tough days.
Kamala Harris’s honeymoon period has now officially ended. According to Iran Gate, Donald Trump is on the rise.
A new Quinnipiac poll from Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan showed that he is leading in the latter two states.
The Real Clear Politics polling average now, for the first time in recent months, shows him ahead in Michigan—a state that rejected Hillary Clinton in 2016 but returned to Democratic control in 2020.
What is truly clear, what the Quinnipiac poll and other polls this week clearly show, is how close the race is in every state.
No candidate leads by more than a few percentage points in more than six states, and all these states will play a crucial role in the Electoral College. What does this mean? It means that right now, we don’t know what the outcome of the Electoral College will be.
A shift of just one or two percent in one or two states could completely change the political atmosphere of the race in the coming weeks.
Trump may lose his lead in the Midwestern states, or Harris might witness the collapse of her lead in Pennsylvania.
The former president might lose control of North Carolina.
Truly, anyone could win, and the outcome of the race is entirely uncertain. However, the Senate story is different. The path that Democrats must take to retain the Senate looks increasingly difficult every day.
A Marist Institute poll on Thursday showed that the vulnerable Republican candidates in Florida and Texas, Rick Scott and Ted Cruz, are in stable condition. Both are still at risk, but for now, they have endured.
In the New York Times/Siena poll, both races are even more in favor of the Republicans.
Meanwhile, Tim Sheehy in Montana is gaining ground, and the future of Democratic Senator Jon Tester, one of the few moderate Democrats in the Senate, is at risk.
With the potential loss of Tester’s seat along with the loss of the Senate seat in West Virginia, Republicans gaining control of the Senate seems highly likely.
Democratic candidates are still leading in Maryland, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona, but they may face a 51-49 Republican Senate in January due to unfavorable electoral geography.
Democrats currently have several reasons to be disheartened. Beyond the potential loss of Senate control, there is a broader issue: Kamala Harris and her campaign, along with the Democratic Party in general, have failed to turn their major advantages in fundraising and volunteer recruitment into a commanding lead in the polls.
Additionally, with the debates likely concluded, there is little time left for major changes in the polls before Election Day. In the coming weeks, expect both Trump and Harris to make their final efforts. A third of October has passed, and both candidates should feel a sense of urgency.
Trump may have already revealed his tactic.
On Wednesday, he announced plans to hold a mega campaign rally at Madison Square Garden in New York. His running mate, J.D. Vance, said he would attend the event on Thursday.
The Trump campaign has presented this event as an effort to compete in New York, but it is likely just an opportunity to increase the usual audience numbers and gain more media coverage for a regular campaign rally.
Meanwhile, Harris has dispatched the Walz team, which had been absent from the public eye for several weeks, to Wisconsin to participate in several events on Monday.