The Meaningful Silence of China and Russia
It took almost three days after Israel’s military attack on positions in three Iranian provinces, as announced by the General Staff of the Armed Forces, for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs to react to the assault. The spokesperson for Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs also took a stance a few hours after the attack.
Ultimately, neither Beijing nor Moscow condemned the Israeli attack.
The stance of China and Russia was not unlike that of some European countries that have developed strained relations with Iran for various reasons.
Naturally, no politician in Iran, nor the general public, expected the United States, as Israel’s strategic ally, to condemn this attack or to express concern about increasing tensions in the Middle East in the manner of other countries, because the U.S. is part of this crisis.
However, given the various promotions about the strategic relations between Tehran, Moscow, and Beijing, there was an expectation that Russia and China, as core members of BRICS, of which Iran is a member, would officially condemn the attack on our country.
Iran has signed a 25-year cooperation document with China and is on the verge of signing a strategic agreement with Russia.
Some analysts believe that Russia and China are pursuing their own national interests, and they cannot be faulted for that.
According to available statistics, China exported about $15 billion to Israel in 2023, although Russia has less trade with Israel than China, with their total trade reaching about $1 billion in 2023.
Beijing: We Oppose the Violation of National Sovereignty
Lin Jian, the spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in response to a question about Israel’s attack on Iran last Saturday morning, said that China opposes the violation of national sovereignty and the security of other countries, and the constant resorting to force and severity. Chinese media reported that Lin said the current situation in West Asia is extremely tense and that stakeholders should avoid increasing security risks in the region.
He also stated that some events have once again shown the urgency and necessity of a ceasefire and ending the war. The international community, especially influential powers, should play a constructive role and provide the necessary conditions for reducing regional tensions.
Russia: We Are Concerned
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs described the tension between Iran and Israel as a serious threat to regional stability and security in response to Israel’s attack on Iran.
The statement from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs called for restraint from all parties involved and the cessation of violence, expressing readiness to cooperate with all parties to reduce the level of conflict. The statement further emphasized the need to stop provoking Iran into retaliatory actions, which could lead to uncontrollable tensions.
Countries Take Positions Based on Their Interests
Hassan Beheshtipour, an international affairs analyst, says that to analyze China’s stance on Israel’s attack on Iran, we must consider what diplomatic language they used in response to similar actions by Iran in the Promise of Truth operations.
The Chinese stance regarding Iran’s attack on Israel was also similar; they expressed concern and called for the international community to play a role in ending this situation.
My understanding as an analyst is that the Chinese, due to their very close and extensive relationship with Israel, especially in the military field, and their close relations with Iran, do not want to take a position for or against either of these two countries.
They intend to draw attention to the fact that increasing tensions in the Middle East also endangers their interests, as most of China’s energy consumption is supplied from West Asia.
They are trying to pursue a balanced diplomacy and declare their opposition to the expansion of war in the region.
He added that the case of Russia is somewhat different.
Russia has a close policy towards Israel, and the personal relations between Netanyahu and Putin have been ongoing for years.
This relationship did not sour even during Israel’s support for Ukraine amidst Russia’s attack; it merely cooled.
Despite all these conditions, the relations between Russia and Israel did not go beyond a rough patch.
Beheshtipour continued, some were surprised that Russia called the October 7 operation a terrorist act.
Well, this operation was seen as a terrorist act from their perspective, and their stance is not unusual. They do not accept a concept called resistance and view issues from this angle.
The fact that Iran and Russia had a common view on the Syrian war and shared interests does not mean they will have the same view on Yemen. Russia has voted in favor of or at most abstained from the Chapter VII Security Council resolutions on Yemen. These differences are natural. Israel and the U.S. also have differences of opinion, despite Israel being the U.S.’s only strategic ally in the Middle East.
This foreign policy expert explained the mistake of using the term strategic alliance, noting that in Iran, the term strategic ally is used to describe the relationship between Tehran and Moscow and Tehran and Beijing.
But we do not pay attention to the fact that a strategic ally has a very important definition. We can call two or more countries strategic allies if they are at the highest possible level in military, security, political, and economic terms.
Are the four or five billion dollars in trade relations between Iran and Russia at the level of capacity between the two countries? When we read the foundational and upstream documents of Russia in the areas of national security doctrine, foreign policy, and defense that have been published over the years, not once has Iran been mentioned as a strategic partner.
We must approach these issues realistically. As a researcher, I clearly state that the relations between Russia and Israel in the current conditions I mentioned earlier are closer than those between Tehran and Moscow.
He continued, after Russia came under sanctions, its relations with Israel faced some problems and decreased.
But its foundations are much stronger than the relations between Iran and Russia. After these sanctions, Russia became somewhat closer to Iran.
Putin has visited Iran four times over the years, but none of these visits were for meetings. All the visits were work-related and took place on the sidelines of various summits.
Therefore, we must pay attention to the indicators.
Beheshtipour emphasized that a 20-year treaty between Iran and Russia is supposed to be signed, which, if realized, will be an important step towards bringing the two countries closer. We cannot ignore the realities and then expect Russia to take a stance in our favor.
I do not justify the actions of the Russians. Expectations should be based on realities, not imaginations. Naturally, Russia takes positions within the framework of its own interests.
Russia believes that its relationship with Iran will not be damaged.
Mahmoud Shouri, an analyst of Russian affairs, says about Moscow’s stance on Israel’s attack on Iran, naturally, the expectation that the Islamic Republic of Iran, as a country with close relations with Russia, and the expectation that the people of Iran had were beyond this stance.
There was an expectation that Russia would condemn Israel’s attack on Iran, but the Russians act according to the type of relationship they have with Israel and the policy they have defined for themselves regarding Middle Eastern countries.
The expectations of the Iranian people and what Russian politicians pursue are not always aligned.
He emphasized that Russia’s stance on Israel’s attack on Iran was very mild, considering that Iranian territory was attacked. The Russians could have taken a more serious stance.
But there is always an issue: Russia tends to lean towards the opposite side in matters where one side is Iran and the other side is Middle Eastern countries, whether they are Arab countries or Israel.
Because perhaps their perception is that their relationship with Iran will not be damaged in any case, but the relationship with the opposite side could be affected. For this reason, in such cases, the Russians always stand on a side that is not very favorable to Iran.
