The Return of Bibi
The return of Bibi, with the highest voter turnout in recent decades, handed Netanyahu the key to regaining power. Among the many titles he has been given over the past twenty years in the spotlight, ‘magician’ might be the best, and Netanyahu’s greatest magic was emerging from the ballot box once again.
After a year, he returned to the center of Israel’s political scene. With the completion of the votes, the Likud party secured the most votes by a significant margin, and thus the right-wing coalition managed to secure 65 out of 120 seats, which is four more than the required threshold to form a government.
Yesh Atid, the centrist party of Yair Lapid, the outgoing Prime Minister, came in second with 25 seats, while the far-right electoral cartel, composed of the Jewish Power and Religious Zionist parties, unprecedentedly secured 15 seats, placing them third.
It is noteworthy that these two formations, which were on the fringes of political life until the last elections and could only count on a very small number of parliamentary representatives, can now claim the role of leading the new majority.
After a night of counting and numbers, it was President Isaac Herzog who had to start consultations. Once again, the name of the longest-serving Prime Minister in Israel’s history topped the list.
A Referendum on Netanyahu
Like the four previous elections since 2019, the vote on the first of November was also a referendum on Netanyahu. The former Prime Minister, despite trials for fraud and corruption that he is accused of, and considering that they might be suspended thanks to a new political post, emerged victorious in the elections.
The National Unity, the new party of Defense Minister Benny Gantz, who a few years ago managed to challenge Netanyahu with his Blue and White party, secured 12 seats.
However, what aided the right-wing bloc’s success was the poor performance of Arab parties, which, amidst frustration and division, squandered the votes of Palestinian Israeli citizens, who, despite making up 20% of Israel’s population, are always striving to find a worthy and suitable representative in the political arena.
The Tajamu Balad party, which entered the political competition alone, missed entering the parliament by a few votes. The Labor Party won 4 seats, and the left-wing Meretz party will not enter the parliament. All of these could lead, according to several experts’ interpretation, to the emergence of the most right-wing government in Israel’s history. The initial vote count was not encouraging for the left and Arabs, and Netanyahu’s victory showed that their concerns were not unfounded.
High Turnout Won the Election
Regardless of the results, the most striking figure in this round of elections was the turnout. More than 71% of voters participated in the elections, going to the polls, which is the highest figure since 1999 and six points higher than last year’s elections.
All parties, aware that the country’s political deadlock would paralyze it, repeatedly urged voters to go to the polls and actively participate in the elections. But certainly, Itamar Ben Gvir, the leader of the far-right Jewish Power party, had the most share in setting this record.
He managed to bring those who did not participate in past votes to the polls and also succeeded in attracting the votes of those who previously supported other right-wing parties like Yamina, founded by Naftali Bennett, and New Hope, the former coalition party of Bibi, Gideon Sa’ar.
Bibi, a Hostage to the Right-Wingers
Now that the results are clear, it remains to be seen whether the right-wing coalition will become the government majority and what concessions the Prime Minister is willing to make during negotiations. Ben Gvir has already revealed his cards, stating that he wants to retain the Ministry of Public Security, while his ally Bezalel Smotrich is demanding the Ministry of Defense.
These two are considered very important and sensitive ministries worldwide, and especially in a country like Israel, their importance increases even more, particularly if granted to individuals like Ben Gvir, who has been accused of inciting riots, vandalism, racial incitement, and supporting a terrorist organization 64 times, and has been convicted in eight cases. He has repeatedly called on law enforcement and police forces to shoot at Palestinian protesters within Israel and the West Bank.
However, given the fact that both sides have claimed they are ready to help Netanyahu clear the charges against him of tax fraud and corruption and have reminded him that they will assist him in resolving his numerous judicial problems, it’s not unlikely that they will achieve their demands for the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Public Security.
A situation that has caused concern in some countries to the extent that a Biden administration official told the conservative Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom, ‘We do not want to see someone like Ben Gvir in the government.’
According to Axios, if this demand by the Biden administration is realized, a boycott of an Israeli minister by the United States would represent an unprecedented development in the bilateral relations of the two countries.