The Slaughter of Peace Talks with Haniyeh’s Elimination
Impact of Haniyeh’s Elimination on Hamas and Palestinian Politics
What Impact Will Ismail Haniyeh’s Death Have on Hamas and Palestinian Politics in General
On the night between July 30 and 31, Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’ political bureau, was killed in Tehran while visiting Iran to attend the inauguration ceremony of Masoud Pezeshkian, the elected president in the 14th presidential elections.
His assassination, attributed to Israel, although the Netanyahu government has neither confirmed nor denied it, represents a severe blow to Hamas, which had lost several of its leadership members in recent months.
But who was Ismail Haniyeh, and what impact will his death have on Hamas and Palestinian politics in general?
Who Was Haniyeh
Born and raised in the Al-Shati refugee camp in Gaza, Ismail Haniyeh has long been one of the most prominent figures of Hamas.
Haniyeh, a member of the organization since its founding in 1987, quickly became one of the most trusted associates of the group’s spiritual leader, Ahmed Yassin.
At the end of the Second Intifada, Haniyeh was one of the figures who worked hard to convince Hamas to participate in the 2006 legislative elections. Eventually, after years of refusing to engage with the Palestinian National Authority’s political system, which Hamas deemed illegitimate, Hamas won these elections, thanks to a mixed electoral system that led to the exclusion of Fatah, which was then led by President Mahmoud Abbas.
Thus, Ismail Haniyeh became the Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority and held this position until spring 2007, when tensions with President Abbas, exacerbated by international opposition to a Hamas-led government, led to an open conflict between the two Palestinian factions. With Hamas taking control of Gaza, Haniyeh remained one of the most prominent figures in the group’s political and administrative leadership in the Strip. However, it was in 2017 that he became the head of Hamas’ political bureau, a position held by Khaled Mashal for over twenty years.
The leadership change marked a significant transformation within the organization. Compared to his predecessor’s network, Haniyeh’s personal network was much more rooted in Gaza, a reality that helped shift part of the organization’s center of gravity towards the Strip, a dynamic that, as we will see, persists today.
However, it is in Hamas’ foreign policy that Haniyeh’s leadership marked the most significant discontinuity.
This was characterized by an opening towards Iran, a country whose relations had been strained, especially after Mashal’s refusal to support Bashar al-Assad in the context of the Syrian civil war that began in 2011.
What Impact Will Haniyeh’s Death Have on Hamas
Although Haniyeh’s assassination still represents a severe blow to Hamas, particularly at a symbolic level, it is unlikely that his killing will affect military operations in Gaza.
The management of the movement’s military wing remains in the hands of the political-military leadership residing in the Strip, which has itself lost prominent figures like Marwan Issa and, according to the Israeli army, Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al-Masri, known as Mohammed Deif, in recent months.
Therefore, more than the conflict, the impact of Haniyeh’s death should be assessed in terms of the implications it might have on ceasefire negotiations, which are at risk of being completely cut off in the short term.
Even if it seemed that negotiations had become entirely ineffective in recent months, there is now concern that Haniyeh’s assassination could end any prospect of an agreement with the Israeli government.
This concern has been expressed in recent days by various international leaders, including US President Biden, who stated that the killing of the Palestinian group’s leader is not helpful for achieving a ceasefire agreement in Gaza.
In fact, although negotiations were mainly conducted by Khalil al-Hayya, the deputy head of Hamas’ political bureau in Doha, Haniyeh’s weight and the influence he exerted over Gaza’s leadership, thanks to his personal contacts, have always been considered critical and essential in the course of negotiation developments. Moreover, Haniyeh’s assassination, in addition to reducing the political bureau’s ability to exert influence over Hamas’ leadership in Gaza, will lead to a further shift of the movement’s center of gravity towards the Gaza Strip.
Although this trend has been ongoing for some time and has accelerated since October 7, the weakening of political leadership in Qatar gives Gaza the opportunity to assume a dominant role.
Haniyeh’s death also creates a vacuum at the top of Hamas’ political hierarchy, which therefore needs to find a replacement.
The three names most mentioned in these hours are Khaled Mashal and Khalil al-Hayya, but Mousa Abu Marzouk, the former deputy head of the political bureau between 1997 and 2014 and the head of Hamas’ delegation in intra-Palestinian reconciliation negotiations, is also being considered. The selection of a new head of the political bureau will also have implications for the prospect of reconciliation with Fatah and, consequently, on the broader political dynamics of Palestine.
What Impact Will It Have on Palestinian Politics
The consequences of Haniyeh’s assassination primarily relate to the fragile intra-Palestinian negotiations, which seemed to have gained momentum in recent months.
Since the brief civil war in 2007, several attempts have been made to reconcile Fatah and Hamas, a process in which Haniyeh often played a pivotal role.
Since his election as political leader, Haniyeh has met with Mahmoud Abbas, the President of the Palestinian Authority, at least twice, in July 2022 in Algeria and a year later in Egypt. It was during this last meeting that Hamas raised demands regarding the reform of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), the body that served as the main political umbrella for Palestinian parties and armed groups until the establishment of the Palestinian Authority in 1994.
The entry of Hamas into the Palestine Liberation Organization, a possibility that remains at the center of negotiations with Fatah in recent months, is an option supported by several members of the movement’s political wing.
However, given that joining the PLO would require Hamas to renounce weapons and terrorism, this would have significant political and ideological implications, as well as the acceptance of positions that the organization has adopted over the past thirty years, including the explicit recognition of Israel.
Although it seems that part of Hamas, like the faction of Mousa Abu Marzouk, is well inclined towards this option, it is hard to believe that figures like Yahya Sinwar would be willing to accept such conditions.
Therefore, Haniyeh’s death risks further exacerbating these internal tensions, which, although they existed before October 7, have undoubtedly intensified with the events of the past ten months.