Harris’s Tough Days
With less than a month until the U.S. presidential election, a new set of polls has been released during Harris’s tough days.
Kamala Harris’s honeymoon period has officially ended. According to Iran Gate, Donald Trump is on the rise.
A new Quinnipiac poll from Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan showed that he is leading in the latter two states.
The Real Clear Politics poll average now, for the first time in recent months, shows him ahead in Michigan, a state that rejected Hillary Clinton in 2016 but returned to Democratic control in 2020.
But what is truly clear, and what the Quinnipiac poll and other polls this week clearly show, is how close the competition is in each state.
No candidate leads by more than a few percentage points in more than six states, and all these states will play a crucial role in the electoral college. What does this mean? It means we currently do not know how the electoral college outcome will turn out.
A change of just one to two percent in one or two states could completely alter the political climate of the competition in the coming weeks.
Trump might lose his lead in the Midwestern states, or Harris might see her lead collapse in Pennsylvania.
The former president might lose control of North Carolina.
Truly, anyone could win, and the outcome of the competition is completely uncertain. The Senate story, however, is different. The path Democrats must take to keep the Senate seems to be getting harder every day.
A Marist Institute poll on Thursday showed that the weak and endangered Republican candidates in Florida and Texas, Rick Scott and Ted Cruz, are in a stable position. Both are still at risk but have held on for now.
In the New York Times Siena poll, both races are even more in favor of Republicans.
Meanwhile, Tim Sheehy in Montana is gaining ground, and the future of Democratic Senator Jon Tester, one of the few moderate Democrats in the Senate, is at risk.
With the potential loss of Tester’s seat along with the loss of the Senate seat in West Virginia, Republicans gaining control of the Senate seems highly likely.
Democratic candidates are still leading in Maryland, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona, but they may face a 51-49 Republican Senate in January due to unfavorable electoral geography.
Democrats currently have several reasons to be discouraged. Beyond the potential loss of Senate control, there is a broader issue. Kamala Harris and her campaign, along with the Democratic Party in general, have failed to turn their major advantages in fundraising and volunteer recruitment into a commanding lead in the polls.
Also, given that the debates are likely over, there is little time left for major changes in the polls before election day. In the coming weeks, expect both Trump and Harris to make their final efforts. One-third of October has passed, and both candidates should feel a sense of urgency.
Trump may have already revealed his tactic.
On Wednesday, he announced plans to hold a mega campaign rally at Madison Square Garden in New York. His running mate, J.D. Vance, has said he will attend the event on Thursday.
The Trump campaign has presented this event as an effort to compete in New York, but it is most likely just an opportunity to increase the usual audience numbers and gain more media coverage for a typical campaign rally.
Meanwhile, Harris has dispatched Tim Walz, who has been absent from public view for a few weeks, to Wisconsin to participate in several events on Monday.
