Trump very close
Trump very close
Donald Trump, with the experience of his previous 4-year term and a plethora of big and small promises, is soon entering the White House for the second time. The market for bold statements that summarize complex issues in one sentence is bustling. One-liner analyses like ‘Trump is a businessman and will avoid a new war’ are popular.
This unique and powerful figure in American politics, who calls himself the man of great negotiations, had a specific approach to international treaties such as NAFTA, JCPOA, TPP, the Paris Climate Agreement, the UN Human Rights Council, and UNESCO during his first term. By analyzing these, one can predict the performance of the next four years and the thought algorithm of one of the most capricious and unpredictable politicians in the world today.
Trump, with his fanatical supporters who attribute a sort of personality cult to him, has a simple yet complex character. His decisions, like a full-fledged narcissistic populist, are spontaneous, yet like a profit-driven businessman, they have a certain coherence and calculation.
Both the hardline neocons and white supremacists are in his inner circle, but he has no permanent and long-term alliance with anyone. Although his language is at the level of a sixth-grader, he employs a particular cleverness in using words.
The overarching slogan of ‘Make America Great Again’ alongside his populist personality and fascist and supremacist spirit will be the compass for his decision-making and thought algorithm. Moreover, he is now 4 years older and more irritable and has almost succeeded in sidelining the independent Republicans who were a nuisance during his first term in the Justice Department and the Senate.
Therefore, the decisions he will make for or against countries will have more domestic support. For instance, if he wants to enter nuclear negotiations or some kind of diplomatic relations with Iran, he can break the Senate barrier. Is he against war? His electoral slogan that America will not enter a new war is not reliable given his personality cult. Trump and Trumpism will avoid a new war as long as it burdens the American economy, but he will not shy away from a war whose costs are borne by others.
Trump hates bearing the security costs of a lazy Europe and NATO that does not pay its bills, but if NATO pays its bill or if the Arabs cover America’s military expenses, he will easily bypass that promise. As a businessman who has worked with numbers all his life, Trump knows that 5 to 10 percent of the American economy is war-driven, and wars whose bills are paid by allies boost the economy and create jobs.
In fact, a new war, especially in the Gulf region, aligns with the slogan of ‘Make America Great Again.’ It is enough for the hardliners in Trump’s national security team, defense, and foreign ministries to whisper in his ear that the growth of the Gulf’s economic ecosystem means oil dollars not overflowing into the American stock market.
Trump and NAFTA
The NAFTA treaty, known as the North American Free Trade Agreement between Canada, Mexico, and the United States, had entered the implementation phase after several years of back and forth. Trump criticized the important NAFTA treaty with the same words he used to describe the JCPOA as one of the worst deals ever made.
A deal that over two decades had been negotiated with the support of both major parties, approved by the Democratic Congress, and implemented by Democratic Clinton, had many intricacies. Trump, by withdrawing from NAFTA, sought to renegotiate with Canada and Mexico, which they immediately accepted, and with slight adjustments, it was signed and implemented under the new name USMCA. Regarding NAFTA, what happened was an example of the ‘undo’ feature of a populist character, meaning that before Mr. Populist, it probably never occurred to anyone that such a treaty between the world’s first economy and a developing country like Mexico would lead to the overflow of manufacturing jobs to the neighboring country.
In fact, one of the main reasons for NAFTA for its designers was to solve the major problem of illegal Mexican immigration to the US by rebuilding their economy. Additionally, it would diminish the effects of China’s economy after they joined the WTO on the US economy, and more importantly, one-third of US exports would flow to the two neighboring countries. In short, the worst trade deal in history, with a bit of an update, when adorned with Trump’s signature, turned into the best deal the US economy has made and implemented in the past two centuries.
Trump and JCPOA
The same words used by Trump regarding NAFTA were used with more intensity and frequency regarding the JCPOA. As one of the worst deals ever made, this time the ‘undo’ feature of Trump as a populist gained more importance because the JCPOA was the result of years of effort by the Obama administration and its allies across the Atlantic. Of course, one of his excuses for calling the JCPOA the worst deal was the overall lack of benefit to America from the JCPOA agreement.
However, it was clear that the JCPOA, remembered as one of the greatest diplomatic achievements of the past few decades, could never be tolerated by someone who considers himself the best negotiator in history, even if his party members supported it.
He believed that by withdrawing from the JCPOA and applying maximum pressure, Iran would return to the negotiating table. He imagined Iran as a company whose stock value had fallen due to maximum sanctions and that with pressure from its shareholders, a big deal with his signature would be realized.
Of course, the presence of individuals like Nikki Haley, John Bolton, and Mike Pompeo was influential in the decision to withdraw, but his self-centered, under-the-table dealing personality in his thought algorithm even takes precedence over the opinions of his advisors whom he himself chooses.
Undoubtedly, slight changes in parts of the complex JCPOA clauses could have subjected it to the fate of NAFTA, and perhaps an updated version of the JCPOA with Trump’s signature could have turned it from the worst deal in American history to the best deal in the history of humanity, and this opportunity is still available for Trump, the great negotiator, to call himself the signer of a great deal with Iran, even if it has slight changes from the complex JCPOA.
He is interested in depriving the Chinese of cheap, discounted, and smuggled Iranian oil. Even in Trump’s thought algorithm, reviving relations with Iran is not as complex as the discussions between Republicans and Democrats.
That he, like Nixon who initiated relations with China, might be the initiator of relations with Iran is probably more important to him than the complexities of Capitol Hill relations.
Necessarily, self-centered populists like Trump do not see complex issues as simple, but they have the power to easily sell simple solutions to complex issues to their supporters and make those solutions appear special with superlative adjectives like best and worst.
Trump and TTP
One of Trump’s strangest actions, which was in clear contradiction with America’s interests and the slogan of ‘Make America Great Again,’ and clearly revealed his mental algorithm, was his withdrawal from one of the largest free trade cooperation organizations known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which was one of the major achievements of the Obama administration aimed at reducing the dependence of major Pacific Rim countries on the growing Chinese economy.
According to this agreement, US exports would increase, and China would be somewhat contained. His withdrawal from the TPP showed that his mental algorithm operates in a way that sometimes is in clear contradiction with his own slogans and even America’s interests.
In short, Trump is a unique personality, and interacting with him does not follow fixed parameters. His personality is simple yet complex; one cannot rely on his commitment to peace, nor can one have long negotiations with him.
Iran’s slow and steady behind-the-scenes diplomacy will not work against him. He is prone to exaggeration. The Adelsons, bin Salmans, Sheikh Maktoums, Russians, and Chinese know that he is into quick and result-oriented deals.