Turkey 2023 Elections

2023 Turkey Elections

According to Iran Gate, less than a month remains until the Turkish elections, and surveys indicate that the opposition coalition against Erdogan, comprised of six parties, is gaining strength against the current government. On May 14th, the people of Turkey will cast their votes to elect a new president and members of parliament.

How is voting in the presidential and parliamentary elections?

To enter the Turkish parliament, which has 600 seats, a party must secure 7% of the votes or be part of a coalition that can reach this threshold. This is why the existence of coalitions has become very important in Turkish elections, a matter highlighted by the six-party opposition as one of their proposed reforms.

In Turkey, the electoral system is proportional representation rather than simple majority. Thus, people vote for party lists instead of candidates. The number of seats is based on the votes each party receives, not the coalition votes.

In some constituencies, the opposition has agreed to compete under the banner of a single party. Candidates from the Green Left Party, who are competing instead of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party, are part of the Labor and Freedom Alliance.

Following reforms Erdogan made to the political system, it is now the president who determines the government, so there is no prime minister. If Erdogan’s broad People’s Alliance, formed with the Nationalist Movement Party, cannot secure a parliamentary majority, he may face difficulties continuing to govern in the current manner. The pro-Erdogan People’s Alliance currently holds 334 seats in parliament.

Erdogan has served two terms as president, so a third term seems contrary to the Turkish constitution.

However, Turkey’s Supreme Election Council has ruled that Erdogan’s first term is counted from 2018, not 2014, as that was the year the new presidential system began, and parliamentary and presidential elections are now held on the same day.

Opposition politicians had previously asked the Supreme Election Council of Turkey to prevent Erdogan’s candidacy.

Poll results regarding the Turkish elections

According to surveys, over 50% of voters support Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the upcoming race, while Recep Tayyip Erdogan has managed to secure only an average of 44% of the votes in the polls.

A survey published by Aksoy Research shows that the National Alliance has garnered 44.1% support, while the People’s Alliance has obtained 38.2%. The same survey indicates that the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party has 10.3% of the votes.

The Piar Research survey does not differ much from other surveys, showing that as of March 10th, the main opposition bloc has 46.4%, while the Justice and Development Party and the Nationalist Movement Party have secured 37.8% of the votes.

If no candidate obtains more than half of the votes and both candidates proceed to a second round two weeks later, 43% of respondents said Kilicdaroglu would win, while nearly 50% said he would not succeed.

Nevertheless, an increasing number of Turks expect Kilicdaroglu to win. Results show that over three months, the gap has significantly narrowed. The same question regarding Erdogan shows that about 48% expected him to secure his third presidential term, while 45% said he would face defeat.

In response to the question of the likelihood of voting for Kilicdaroglu, nearly 45% responded positively, while over 49% said they would not vote. Meanwhile, close to 44% said they would support Erdogan, and 52% refrained from supporting his candidacy.

Regarding Kilicdaroglu’s 26% lead, data suggests that the fate of the election will be determined by Muharrem Ince and undecided individuals.

One of the most important demographic factors is young voters. About six million of Turkey’s voter population will participate in the elections for the first time next month, a group that has seen nothing but Erdogan’s 20-year rule throughout their lives. About 13 million voters under 25 will participate in the elections. According to Erdal Akaltun, head of the BUPAR Research and Consultancy, eight out of ten young Turks will vote for candidates outside the People’s Alliance led by the Justice and Development Party.

Citing recent survey results, Akaltun said the possibility of a power change in the current order excites young people for the first time.

Edgar Sar, one of the founders of the Istan Pol Institute, points out that most young voters have been influenced by the government’s increasingly authoritarian approach. He notes that Generation Z was 15 years old during the nationwide anti-government protests in Gezi Park in 2013. Since then, this generation has witnessed a period where the Justice and Development Party began its authoritarianism. This generation could not access the social opportunities available to the previous generation.

Turkish surveys are known for being somewhat unreliable, but it seems any chance Kilicdaroglu had of winning in the first round was lost with Muharrem Ince, his former colleague from the Republican People’s Party, deciding to join the presidential race.

Ince, 58, was the Republican People’s Party’s presidential candidate in 2018 but later had disagreements with Kilicdaroglu and founded the secular nationalist Homeland Party in 2021. He has now entered the election race with this party, an action that has led to accusations of reducing opposition votes and being manipulated by Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

However, he has a strong presence on social media, which appeals to the younger generation, especially young voters influenced by his dance moves on TikTok. Another candidate with little chance of significant success is Sinan Oğan, an ultra-nationalist who also has the potential to change the game and votes.

The Role of Women’s Vote in the Turkish Elections

Women’s vote in the Turkish elections has garnered more attention from political analysts than ever before. Political analysts believe the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is losing its votes among conservative women, who have been the core supporters and pillars of this party.

Rasim Sishman, head of the Social Democracy Foundation, told Al-Monitor news website that a survey conducted among 1,067 women shows that only 68.7% of those who voted for the ruling Turkish party in the 2018 elections are likely to vote for this party again.

According to the survey results, 78% of participants will vote for the main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), which is openly seeking conservative women’s votes, and 2% will vote for the Good Party, one of the two political parties with a female leader or vice-leader. Additionally, 14% of voters have not yet decided who they will vote for in the Turkish presidential election.

Sishman and Ali Soslu, director of the ALF Research Institute, believe that the votes of conservative Turkish women will primarily go to larger parties like the Republican People’s Party and the Good Party. In a survey conducted by the same research institute in January, the ruling Justice and Development Party, which has traditionally been the top party among these female voters, ranked second with 26.5% of the vote compared to the Republican People’s Party’s 29.2%.

Over the past two decades, many have considered the ruling Turkish party the only party reflecting the values and beliefs of these conservative women. However, today, many surveys, commentators, and political analysts believe that since 2018, and more precisely since 2020, due to various issues including economic problems, wage disparities between men and women, the ruling party’s behavior towards women’s rights, especially early marriage and domestic violence, this trend has changed.

These conservative women played a crucial role in bringing Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling party to power, but due to the aforementioned issues and based on recent survey results, this group of women is seeking an alternative, as the ruling Justice and Development Party seems too conservative for them.

Promises of Presidential Candidates to Avoid Election Defeat

Kemal Kilicdaroglu recently promised in a television interview to resolve the visa issue for Turkish citizens. He emphasized that if he wins the election, Turkish citizens will be able to travel to Europe without needing a visa within three months.

He also announced that if he wins the election, he will ban the sale of property to foreigners and return about 3.6 million Syrian migrants and hundreds of thousands of Afghan migrants to their countries.

All four Turkish election candidates have announced strict policies regarding the presence of immigrants and refugees in the country. Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s campaign focuses on defending democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. At the same time, with the sharp devaluation of the lira and 80% inflation in Turkey, the influx of migrants in recent years has become a serious social, economic, and political issue in the country.

Granting citizenship to those who buy property in the country has led to a sharp increase in housing prices in major Turkish cities, including Istanbul. Syrian refugees have also raised unemployment rates in some provinces.

However, Erdogan, in a statement containing the Justice and Development Party’s election promises, has pledged to reduce Turkey’s soaring inflation to a single digit and to restore economic growth to the country by encouraging investment. Erdogan’s opponents consider his economic policy the main cause of Turkey’s current rampant inflation.

According to them, his economic view, which emphasizes keeping interest rates low for economic growth even during inflation and currency devaluation, has caused the most harm to Turkey’s economy. Nevertheless, the Justice and Development Party’s election statement contains no promises to return to more conventional economic policies.

How the Opposition Will Change Turkey

The Nation Alliance, led by Kemal Kilicdaroglu, intends to restore Turkey’s parliamentary system and also reform presidential powers, remove the president’s veto power in legislation, sever the position’s ties with political parties, and make the term seven years so that the president is determined by another election.

These six parties also want to restart Turkey’s decades-long efforts to join the European Union and restore mutual trust with the United States after years of strained relations during Erdogan’s era.

They have committed to reducing inflation to below 10% within two years and planning for Syrian refugees to voluntarily return to their homes.

The Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections are being held on May 14th amid the devastating earthquake in Turkey that left over 46,000 casualties and thousands of buildings destroyed in 11 provinces.

The government’s handling of the survivors has drawn much criticism towards Erdogan and the ruling party. Some observers speculate that the aftershocks of the Turkish earthquake could seriously shake the foundations of Erdogan’s power after 20 years.

However, it is still unclear what impact the earthquake’s consequences will have on the elections. The opposition also knows that if they win, they will face significant challenges in this area.