Two Serious Threats Facing the Pezeshkian Government
Less than a week after Masoud Pezeshkian was elected as the President of Iran, and before he has even officially assumed the presidency, shadows of threat and doubt can already be seen looming over the new government.
1. The Threat of Election Losers: From the early hours of Saturday, realizing they had no path to the presidency, they began to react harshly and started threatening the elected president and his supporters.
Initially, these reactions were mostly internal, stemming from disputes between the leadership and the base of the ruling bloc. On the surface, it appeared as a confrontation between the supporters of Saeed Jalili and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, but underneath, it revealed the fears of purists and the far-right of losing their powers and privileges. They even went so far as to question the system’s policies in this election and the performance of the Guardian Council.
This group knew well that the stakes were higher than just Pezeshkian and the reformists. In a way, it was a decision by the system to marginalize radicals and strengthen the moderate and rooted forces of both factions. In more precise and theoretical terms, the larger project that this election could be a step towards realizing is the revival of politics and ending the era of political suspension. Naturally, forces that had gained prominence and platforms during the suspension of politics are worried and fearful of its advancement and realization. On one side, there are the far-right extremists internally, and on the other, the radical opposition who want the public to completely lose hope in reforms and push the majority towards overthrowing and changing the structure.
In this election, both currents were unofficially allied against moderate forces, with media and spokespeople from both sides assisting each other.
After this phase, in recent days, various radical right factions have gradually decided to create an atmosphere and directly confront Pezeshkian and his supporters.
The headlines of the past few days in the Kayhan newspaper, claims of handing over a saddled horse to the fourteenth government, and warnings to Pezeshkian about aligning with Khatami, Rouhani, and moderate and reformist forces represent the official threat and atmosphere creation against the new government, which has begun even before its formation.
Jalili’s statements about the continuation of the shadow government and warnings about intervening where necessary are another example of these movements and threats. However, in the unofficial and virtual realm, the dimensions and explicitness of the atmosphere creation are more extensive.
From direct insults to Pezeshkian voters to threats against the elected president about implementing a project to turn him into another Bani-Sadr, and stirring ethnic issues, along with a series of actions within the government regarding appointments and transfers that will create problems for the future government, these are traceable and analyzable at this level.
2. The Current of Doubt: However, what has become a greater source of concern in the current situation and in the inner circles and discussions of the president-elect’s supporters are the doubts about the mechanism of forming the government and the president’s colleagues. This concern is that external pressures and internal relations may lead capable, skilled, and development-oriented forces to be sidelined, resulting in a cabinet lacking the capacity to change the current situation.
The formation of committees to determine ministers and government officials, which include experienced and influential figures from Khatami and Rouhani’s governments, along with the formation of the policy council for the formation of the fourteenth government, has somewhat alleviated these doubts.
Additionally, clear criteria for the options presented by Pezeshkian to the officials of these committees have been communicated, aligning with the public’s demands and Pezeshkian’s approaches during the elections.
Despite these measures, the shadow of doubts and concerns remains prominent in the new government’s supporters’ campaign. Part of this concern is natural.
The unequal balance of power on one hand and the legacy left by the thirteenth government in various areas, especially the economy and society, along with the unclear outlook of foreign policy, present a situation that requires a collection of committed, skilled, knowledgeable, experienced, and motivated forces to ensure the new government can navigate this difficult and complex path with numerous obstacles at least with the necessary human resources and complete internal cohesion.
However, it seems that forming such a government is faced with two internal obstacles, which can be summed up with the two words ‘greed’ and ‘indifference’.
The fourteenth government, on one hand, faces the internal threat of power-seeking forces whose past performance and positions in Khatami’s and especially Rouhani’s governments are not very positive.
Forces that pursue personal or factional interests over public interests, advancing the government’s policies and approaches, and defending its reformist and development-oriented positions, and during times of hardship, they generally sit on the sidelines, waiting to catch their fish when the waters are muddied.
These forces are the ones known as the ‘Saturday Mujahideen’, who even in the recent elections did not play a significant role and were mostly involved in receiving campaign appointments or taking souvenir photos.
Many of these forces are influenced by a strategy that was initially opposed to supporting Pezeshkian’s candidacy and conflicted with the strategy of opening pathways that led Pezeshkian to the twelfth parliament and subsequently to the presidency. Now, they seem to be intent on inflating demands and quickly forgetting the realities and existing relations in the political structure.
They believe Pezeshkian’s victory was a simple event solely based on the will and desire of the reformists, and now they think they can easily form a government solely with aligned forces and ignore the grand equations.
On the other hand, some influential figures in Pezeshkian’s election campaign, who fully entered this election and are considered theorists and drivers of the path now opened in Pasteur, have taken the path of indifference and are, intentionally or unintentionally, weakening the new government.
Mohammad Javad Zarif, Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi, and Mohammad Fazeli are the most prominent of these figures who have officially stated their absence from Pezeshkian’s government.
It is unclear whether the reason for these figures’ decision is their personal desire or if they have preferred to withdraw and sit on the sidelines after observing the prevailing atmosphere in the new government. If this decision is personal, it is clearly irresponsible.
Because there is no virtue in this sidelining and distancing from power; it is an approach similar to the stance of those who did not come to the polls, arguing to keep their hands clean from blood, allegiance, or compliance.
Just as not voting in this election was an individual decision with national consequences and dangers, the withdrawal of influential figures, especially these three, although seemingly a personal decision, can have negative national and social consequences.
Because these figures were among the most important forces in Pezeshkian’s election campaign, each representing and embodying one of the new government’s slogans and goals.
Zarif represents the approach of foreign de-escalation and the revival of the JCPOA, Azari Jahromi symbolizes reducing censorship, developing the internet, and focusing on the new generation, and Fazeli represents the employment of elites and academics who have faced profiling, dismissal, and suspension in recent years.
In other words, the withdrawal of these three figures and other influential Pezeshkian supporters is not just the withdrawal of three political, scientific, and executive personalities, but it conveys to the audience and the voting public that Pezeshkian, at the very beginning of his work, has abandoned three of his main and fundamental projects, or at least will not utilize his most capable and influential forces to advance them.
If the reason for these figures’ withdrawal is the atmosphere created around Pezeshkian, then the current approach must certainly be reconsidered, and it should be thought about why and how a process has formed that the stars of the victorious 2023 campaign have preferred leaving to staying and fleeing to staying.
Whichever of these two possibilities it may be, the current approach is doubtful and worrying. Something must be done quickly to save the new government from these two internal threats, whether from the greedy seeking plunder or the withdrawn and indifferent.