What are the obstacles to normalizing Tehran-Cairo relations?
What are the obstacles to normalizing Tehran-Cairo relations?
Recently, amidst the acceleration of communications between Egypt and Iran, the relations between the two countries have significantly improved, while observers believe that this is due to pragmatic reasons rather than a genuine desire to restore normal relations between the two countries.
A day after Israel’s attack on Iran in the early hours of Saturday, Badr Abdel Aty, the Egyptian Foreign Minister, in a phone conversation with his Iranian counterpart, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, reiterated that Cairo condemns any unilateral and provocative actions and policies that threaten the security and stability of the region and lead to escalating tensions.
According to a statement from the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Abdel Aty emphasized the need to prevent tension and take steps that contribute to achieving calm and avoiding dragging the Middle East into a regional war that would have adverse consequences for the peoples of the region.
The statement mentioned that during this phone conversation, there were discussions about Egypt’s efforts, in coordination with Qatar and the USA, to reach a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip and to allow the full and unconditional entry of humanitarian and medical aid into Gaza and the release of hostages and prisoners.
Meanwhile, sources from Al-Araby Al-Jadeed revealed that during a meeting between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and his Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian, on the sidelines of the BRICS summit held in Kazan, Russia, the two sides agreed on new steps to develop areas of cooperation between the two countries, within frameworks that do not put Cairo under regional or American pressure.
In the first meeting between el-Sisi and Pezeshkian, Cairo and Tehran agreed to start diplomatic consultations to explore ways to enhance the level of diplomatic representation within the framework of creating a general atmosphere for the complete normalization of relations between Egypt and Iran in the upcoming period.
Before the meeting of the presidents of Egypt and Iran in Russia, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, during his regional tour that included Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman, also visited Cairo, marking the first visit by an Iranian official at the level of Foreign Minister to Egypt since 2013.
The meeting between el-Sisi and Pezeshkian has been described in official circles as the beginning of a new phase in the development of relations between the two countries. According to this news outlet’s information, during the meeting in Kazan, the two sides agreed to establish a sustainable joint mechanism for security and military coordination on crises of mutual concern, such as the Red Sea, Lebanon, and Gaza, which is the biggest agreement between Cairo and Tehran since the downgrading of relations between the two countries.
Egypt has become an indirect and trusted communication channel between the US, Israel, and Iran after conveying several messages between the American and Israeli governments and Iran. According to sources from Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, Egypt also played a role in recent naval exercises conducted with the participation of Saudi and Iranian forces. According to the Saudi Ministry of Defense, the country recently conducted joint military exercises in the Arabian Sea with several other countries, including Iran and Turkey.
In this regard, Egypt seeks to arrange a meeting with active Yemeni parties to end the Yemen crisis. Relevant Egyptian officials continue to coordinate with Ansarullah officials to understand their stance on the possibility of meeting with groups from the Saudi-backed Yemeni government, the Islah Party, and the country’s Transitional Council.
According to information from Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, Egypt’s communications in this area are conducted with full coordination with Iran and Saudi Arabia, and this has been welcomed by Ansarullah. In this context, political researcher Ammar Fayed told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that Egypt primarily requests Iran to reduce tensions in Bab al-Mandab, as this affects Egypt’s economy.
Fayed continued that Cairo also seeks to prevent the escalation of the ongoing war into a direct confrontation between Tehran and Tel Aviv, as such a confrontation would have repercussions on Egypt’s economy and interests in the Red Sea, Iraq, and elsewhere. However, all these factors do not necessarily mean that Egypt-Iran relations will progress significantly like Egypt-Turkey relations.
The researcher added that strategically, Egypt has more connections with the US and the West, and regionally with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and Israel, and any serious action regarding Iran might have negative consequences for Cairo, which is something that does not endanger Egypt’s situation amidst the current economic conditions.
On the other hand, Essam Abdel Shafi, a political science professor, believes that there are numerous challenges in establishing even tactical or temporary relations between Egypt and Iran at this time for several reasons. Abdel Shafi explained that the first reason is the level of pressure the US can exert on Egypt; it is clear that with Trump’s administration, the pressure he can apply regarding establishing relations with Iran is more intense than that of the current US President, Joe Biden.
The political science professor added that the second reason is Iran’s connection to the Resistance Axis and Egypt’s ties with Israel. Therefore, in my view, Tehran and Cairo are positioned against each other, and as a result, the idea of enhancing relations in this short period is not feasible.
Abdel Shafi stated that the third reason that diminishes the possibility of improving Egypt-Iran relations is that despite the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and the UAE with Iran, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi’s relations with Tehran are tactical, not strategic.
He believes that Saudi Arabia and the UAE do not wish for Egypt-Iran relations to be positive at this stage.
On the other hand, Saeed Shavardi, a researcher on Iranian affairs, noted Iran’s intention to restore relations for a long time and announced that the new government of this country seeks to restore relations with Egypt. If this occurs, the interests of both nations will be served, and numerous opportunities for cooperation in various fields will be available.
Shavardi further pointed out the efforts of the Pezeshkian government to restore relations, including the Iranian Foreign Minister’s visit to Cairo and meetings with Egypt’s President and senior officials. He identified the US and Israel, which view the restoration of Cairo-Tehran relations as a threat to their regime’s security, as the main obstacles in this regard, stating that Washington and Tel Aviv are trying to keep Iran and Egypt apart.
