What are the obstacles to normalizing Tehran-Cairo relations

What are the obstacles to normalizing Tehran-Cairo relations?

What are the obstacles to normalizing Tehran-Cairo relations?

Recently, amid the acceleration of communications between Egypt and Iran, the relations between the two countries have significantly improved, while observers believe that this is due to pragmatic reasons rather than a genuine desire to restore normal relations between the two countries.

A day after Israel’s attack on Iran in the early hours of Saturday, Badr Abdel Atty, Egypt’s Foreign Minister, in a phone conversation with his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, reiterated that Cairo condemns any unilateral and provocative actions and policies that threaten the security and stability of the region and lead to an escalation of tensions.

According to a statement from Egypt’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Abdel Atty emphasized the necessity of preventing tension and taking steps that contribute to achieving calm, avoiding dragging the Middle East into a regional war that would have dire consequences for the peoples of the region.

The statement mentioned that during this phone conversation, discussions were held about Egypt’s efforts, in coordination with Qatar and the United States, to reach a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip and ensure the full and unconditional entry of humanitarian and medical aid into Gaza, as well as the release of hostages and prisoners.

Simultaneously, sources from Al-Araby Al-Jadeed revealed that in a meeting between Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and his Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian, on the sidelines of the BRICS summit held in Kazan, Russia, the two sides agreed on new steps to expand areas of cooperation between the two countries within frameworks that do not put Cairo under regional or American pressure.

In the first meeting between Sisi and Pezeshkian, Cairo and Tehran agreed to initiate diplomatic consultations to explore ways to enhance the level of diplomatic representation, within the context of creating a general atmosphere for the full normalization of relations between Egypt and Iran in the coming period.

Before the meeting of the presidents of Egypt and Iran in Russia, Abbas Araghchi, during his regional tour that included Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman, also visited Cairo. This visit was the first of its kind by an Iranian official at the level of Foreign Minister to Egypt since 2013.

The meeting between Sisi and Pezeshkian in official circles has been described as the beginning of a new phase in the development of relations between the two countries. According to information from this news outlet, during the meeting held in Kazan, the two sides agreed to establish a sustainable joint mechanism for security and military coordination concerning crises of mutual interest in the Red Sea, Lebanon, and Gaza. This is the largest agreement between Cairo and Tehran since the downgrade of relations between the two countries.

Egypt has become an indirect communication channel and a trusted intermediary for conveying several messages between the U.S. and Israeli governments to Iran. According to sources from Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, Egypt also played a role in the recent naval exercises conducted with the participation of Saudi and Iranian forces alongside each other. According to the Saudi Ministry of Defense, the country recently conducted joint military exercises in the Arabian Sea with several other countries, including Iran and Turkey.

In this regard, Egypt seeks to organize a meeting involving active Yemeni parties on the scene as part of efforts to resolve the Yemen crisis. Relevant Egyptian officials continue to coordinate with Ansar Allah to understand their position regarding the possibility of meeting with groups affiliated with the Saudi-supported government in Yemen, the Islah Party, and the country’s Transitional Council.

According to information from Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, Egypt’s communications in this area are conducted in full coordination with Iran and Saudi Arabia, and this has been welcomed by Ansar Allah. In this context, political researcher Ammar Fayed told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that Egypt primarily wants Iran to reduce tensions in the Bab al-Mandab, as this affects Egypt’s economy.

Fayed continued that Cairo also seeks to prevent the escalation of the ongoing war tension into a direct confrontation between Tehran and Tel Aviv, as such a confrontation would have implications for Egypt’s economy and interests in the Red Sea, Iraq, and elsewhere. However, all these factors do not necessarily mean that Egypt-Iran relations will progress significantly like Egypt-Turkey relations.

This researcher added that strategically, Egypt has more connections with the U.S. and the West and regionally with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and Israel, and any serious action regarding Iran could have negative consequences for Cairo, which is a concern that does not threaten Egypt’s situation given the current economic conditions.

On the other hand, Essam Abdel Shafi, a political science professor, believes that there are many obstacles to establishing even tactical or temporary relations between Egypt and Iran at this time due to several reasons. Abdel Shafi clarified that the first reason is the level of pressure from the U.S. on Egypt. It is evident that with Trump’s arrival, the pressure he could exert on Egypt regarding establishing relations with Iran would be more intense than that from the current U.S. President Joe Biden.

The political science professor added that the second reason is Iran’s connection with the resistance axis and Egypt’s connection with Israel. Therefore, in my view, Tehran and Cairo are positioned against each other, making the idea of enhancing relations in this short period unlikely to be realized.

Abdel Shafi stated that the third reason that diminishes the possibility of improving Egypt-Iran relations, despite the normalization policies carried out between Saudi Arabia and the UAE with Iran, is that Riyadh and Abu Dhabi’s relations with Tehran are tactical, not strategic.

He believes that Saudi Arabia and the UAE do not desire Egypt-Iran relations to be good at this stage.

On the other hand, Saeed Shawardi, a researcher specializing in Iranian affairs, noted Iran’s longstanding intention to restore relations, stating that the new government of the country seeks to restore relations with Egypt, and if this happens, the interests of the two nations will be met, and many opportunities for cooperation in various fields will be created.

Shawardi further pointed to the efforts of Pezeshkian’s government to restore relations, including the visit of Iran’s Foreign Minister to Cairo and meetings with Egypt’s President and senior officials. He identified the U.S. and Israel, which view the restoration of Cairo-Tehran relations as a threat to their security, as major obstacles to this process, stating that Washington and Tel Aviv are trying to keep Iran and Egypt apart.