What is the reality of Afghan migrant statistics?
What is the reality of Afghan migrant statistics?
Narratives about the economic impacts of Afghan citizens migrating to Iran after the Taliban’s rise to power are often contradictory and sometimes exaggerated. Some officials of the Islamic Republic portray the presence of eastern neighbor citizens in Iran as a factor of economic instability. Recently, the government has announced the expulsion of some Afghan migrants, and the fate of those who entered Iran illegally after the Taliban’s takeover remains uncertain.
In past decades, Iran has been one of the main destinations for Afghan citizens migrating, but after the Taliban returned to power in 2023, a new wave of Afghan refugee migration to Iran has emerged. In response to this migration trend, the government has repeatedly officially stated that accepting Afghans in Iran is not possible. Meanwhile, contradictory reactions from the public have also formed on social media, with some supporting the continued presence of Afghan refugees and others opposing it.
Threatening statements from the government against migrants have sometimes paved the way for the use of derogatory language against them on social media. Meanwhile, opponents of migrant presence in Iran refer to data and statistics whose accuracy is unclear, from the actual number of migrants to their use of cash and non-cash subsidies. Officials of the Islamic Republic portray the widespread presence of Afghan migrants in Iran as a factor increasing costs for the government, and in recent years, the government has implemented various measures to counter the trend of illegal refugee migration, including building border walls and mass expulsions.
Eskandar Momeni, the Minister of Interior, recently announced the expulsion of one million illegal nationals and stated that border closures are underway. Despite government officials seriously pursuing the policy of expelling illegal refugees, it is said that this policy has not been very successful. Previously, the head of the Bureau for Aliens and Foreign Immigrants Affairs stated that nearly three million illegal nationals have been expelled from the country in the past three years, but due to the harsh conditions in Afghanistan, these individuals have returned to Iran.
Considering that a significant number of refugees have legally crossed the Iranian border and have never been identified, it is said that the actual number of migrants might differ from official figures. In a situation where contradictory statistics about the status of nationals in Iran exist, each organization or entity announces statistics in a way that justifies its own goals. For example, the Ministry of Interior, which seeks the expulsion of illegal nationals, always announces the highest figures. In October this year, the Strategic Studies and Training Center of the Ministry of Interior published a research report stating that contrary to all existing data, the number of Afghans in Iran is about 10 to 10.5 million.
Validation of Ministry of Interior claims
In September this year, the Strategic Studies Center of the Ministry of Interior published a report on the economic impacts of migrants’ presence in Iran and claimed that the 10.5 million Afghan nationals collectively receive around 80 trillion tomans in subsidies. This research states that bread and education subsidies for the 600,000 Afghan students are also paid from the government’s pocket. In another part of this research, it is claimed that in 2024, at least 100 trillion tomans in subsidies will be allocated to migrants.
However, this research report, which is no longer available online after its publication, in another section emphasized the advantages of foreign labor for the private sector, stating that Iranian employers benefit from the presence of foreign labor because they offer lower wages to migrants and do not pay insurance premiums. In contrast, the government incurs losses due to subsidy payments and the Social Security Organization due to receiving less insurance premiums.
The heavy subsidy payments to migrants have not only been raised by the Ministry of Interior’s Strategic Studies Center. In recent years, some official figures have also claimed amounts that not only do not align with economic realities but each of these claims contradicts the other. For example, Abolfazl Aboutorabi, a member of parliament, said in a TV program this September that the total hidden subsidies and money that foreign nationals take out of Iran annually is 21 billion dollars. This claim was widely shared on social media at the time, and many supporters of Afghan migrant expulsion referred to it.
This member of parliament claimed the withdrawal of 21 billion dollars by nationals, while according to customs data, Iran’s total exports in 2023 were about 494 billion dollars, and such figures do not align with the small scale of Iran’s economy. Statements by Yaqub Rezazadeh, another member of parliament, reveal other contradictions. On October 5th this year, he claimed that 17 million Afghans in Iran receive subsidies, while in none of the official statistics is the number of Afghan migrants stated as 17 million.
Sara Falahi, a member of the National Security Commission of the parliament, also stated that five to eight million Afghan nationals collectively receive more than 250 trillion tomans in hidden subsidies. By hidden subsidies, she means part of the government’s assistance that keeps the prices of goods low in Iran’s economy. The government usually pays subsidies in the form of preferential currency for essential goods or by offering lower rates for refinery feedstock to control prices within Iran.
In the 2024 budget, the preferential currency is set at 15 billion dollars, and it is said that the annual energy subsidy is about 100 to 120 billion dollars. Given that there is no specific criterion for precisely measuring the extent to which refugees benefit from hidden subsidies, it is unclear which of these claims is correct. However, it can be guessed that not all foreigners, especially illegal migrants, fully benefit from these subsidies.
Afghan labor as an advantage for the private sector
Despite all the restrictions the government has imposed on employing illegal nationals in the job market, many employers, especially in the construction sector, retail market, and service centers, use Afghan labor. Since foreign nationals request lower wages compared to Iranian workers, the final cost of goods decreases, and the profit margin of the private sector is strengthened.
Mahmoud Karimi Beiranvand, Deputy Minister of Employment of the Ministry of Labor, announced in 2023 that at least one and a half million workers without work permits and three million workers with work permits are working in Iran. These statistics indicate a greater tendency among employers to hire illegal nationals and reduce production costs. According to data from the Statistics Center, the employment of Afghans in Iran’s job market has grown by more than 45% over the past decade. Afghan workers accounted for about 33% of Iran’s workforce in 2022, and this share likely increased after the second wave of Afghan migration in 2023.
More detailed data from the Statistics Center shows that although they have mostly worked in service and non-specialized sectors, since 2012, their presence in two job groups, technicians and specialists, has more than doubled. Findings from another part of the Statistics Center’s data show that the employment of Afghan nationals has mostly occurred in sectors with lower insurance rates. This reality indicates that one of the main reasons employers favor foreign nationals is to reduce production costs and pay lower wages and insurance premiums. On the other hand, it is unclear whether employers will still be able to hire Iranian workers with higher insurance and wage costs if these types of workers are expelled from the job market.
Working in Iran is no longer profitable
The implementation of maximum pressure policies against the Islamic Republic by Donald Trump, the President of the United States, along with the opposition of the Islamic Republic’s leaders to negotiating with the U.S. over the nuclear program, has increased the dollar rate in Iran’s free market to over 90,000 tomans. With the further depreciation of Iran’s national currency, the value of labor wages in Iran will also be weakened. Based on this, given the current wages, converting rials to foreign currencies and sending them to Afghanistan for Afghan migrants working in Iran is no longer economically viable as it was before.
In this situation, claims about sending money abroad by Afghans also face serious ambiguities. Abolfazl Aboutorabi, a member of parliament, had predicted that about seven billion dollars would be taken out of Iran by Afghan nationals. Assuming the presence of five million Afghans and a dollar rate of 90,000 tomans in Iran, for seven billion dollars to be taken out, each of these nationals would need to have about 126 million tomans. This is while saving this amount is very difficult even for Iranian citizens with salaried jobs. Despite the Iranian government’s strict policies towards Afghan migrants, extensive migrant movement continues at the borders.
Despite political challenges, Afghan migrants play an undeniable role in various sectors of Iran’s job market. Although their presence has reduced production costs for employers, the pressure of illegal nationals on public resources cannot be denied.
Meanwhile, a migrant support organization, the Mixed Migration Center, recently announced that Afghan migrants in Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, and Tajikistan face increasing threats such as arrest and deportation and are also confronted with violence from government officials in these countries. Despite this, the deep economic, social, and human ties between the people of Iran and Afghanistan continue.