What strategy does Russia have regarding Iran
The focus on Russia for writing recent notes has a clear reason. Part of the reasons is obvious: Russia is a global military power. It is not a major economic power, but it has the capacity to shape and control many events across continents alongside the United States.
I have deliberately separated China from this analysis and will explain it in my next article. Other powers are less apparent, but they are not less important. Iran is at the center of what I have named the Northern Crisis.
Its government has a geopolitical advantage for protecting its borders, and it demonstrates this duty, like many countries, by deploying armed forces and weapons or sometimes seemingly stationing forces.
These activities are a potential threat to the countries bordering the eastern part of the country: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan, as well as to Turkey in the northwest. The important point for me is that it can also threaten Russia.
Iran’s goals and capabilities are often unclear, but in the complex world of strategy, one must be prepared for the worst-case scenarios, and in this region, the worst is always happening.
Among Iran’s neighbors, Russia alone is in a geopolitical position to operate throughout the region.
Iran is aware of this and therefore feels compelled to act against Russia. They have slightly better relations than before, and it doesn’t seem like they have stronger cooperation.
Of course, Russia has announced that it will counter any attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, a clear attempt to get closer to Iran and intimidate the West.
Meanwhile, Russia regularly sells drones to Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan, equipping northern Iran with weapons that can strike Iranian nuclear facilities.
Russia also participates in meetings with regional governments, including Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Iran, and is getting closer to them.
This policy seems contradictory, a series of decisions that can rarely be described as a strategy. However, a closer look shows that Russia is simultaneously building a significant force while pretending to be harmless and confused.
Engagement with Central Asia has been important for Russia’s regional strategy for years, and now in arming regional governments, Russia’s objectives regarding Iran remain unknown.
Alongside guarantees to defend Iran against the West, this creates a strategy that is dangerous for Russia’s enemies, a large part of the reason being the lack of awareness of its actions.
This also indicates that Russia might be preparing itself for a hypothetical future with Iran, clearly establishing a defensive border in Central Asia. Iran is one of the most powerful forces in the region south of Russia, but any attack by a major power, if successful, would push Iran north towards Russia’s border.
Russia has very few interests with Iran that it would retreat to its defensive border, but it does not want to attack Iran either. Apparently, Russia’s real aim is to contain Iran.
If so, my concerns about Russia have been misplaced.
The point is, I don’t know what is correct because Russia’s strategy regarding Iran is mostly unclear, like its objectives for the defensive border in Central Asia, which worries Iran or at least places it in a state of uncertainty.