Where are the protests heading? Will Iran become like Venezuela?
Where are the protests heading? Will Iran become like Venezuela? What will be the future direction of the protests in Iran? Will they stop or diminish? Will the situation return to what is now referred to as the Mahsa Moment? Will more people join the protests, or will this wave of protests subside like those in December 2017 and November 2019, only to rise again later? Or perhaps the authorities will implement a series of structural reforms to prevent the advance of protests.
Earlier, a university study on the protests from 2017 to 2021 indicated that if the demands of the people are not addressed and the main causes of the protests are ignored, it is uncertain whether future waves of protests will remain at previous levels or intensify. It was predicted that another spark would be enough for all protesters, with their diverse views and goals, to take to the streets.
The spark this time was ignited by the death of Mahsa Amini, referred to by some as the Mahsa Moment. Many analysts believe that after this moment, Iranian society will not return to its previous state. A significant portion of the dissatisfied and protesting society once clung to reforms and gradually became disillusioned. Experts now believe that this society has passed a point from which returning is no longer possible.
Mediating Forces
Dr. Abolfazl Delavari, a professor of political science, in a recent meeting titled ‘Analysis and Future Studies of the 2022 Protests’ organized by the Iranian Political Science Association, noted that while these protests have some revolutionary aspects, their structure is not yet such that it can be called a revolutionary movement that would bring Iran into a revolutionary state. He attributed this to the lack of a specific ideology, organization, and centralized leadership. Contrary to some others, he believes that the situation is still reversible.
In his view, what has complicated the current situation in Iran is the simultaneous presence of two points. On one side, there is a movement that has moved beyond many assumptions of previous generations and is creating a vision of a different future. On the other side, there is an established system whose collapse cannot be easily accepted. In such a situation, the current state is concerning if tensions between these two points increase, but it is hopeful if the established system adopts a political mechanism to navigate these dangerous conditions.
Dr. Reza Najafzadeh, a professor of political science, noted that we are gradually witnessing the transformation of the calm advance of social movements into violent advances. He stated that today we are facing a duality: on one side, the risk of civil war, and on the other, the modification and reform of governance structures to open a two-way space between power and society.
He believes that opening paths of interaction away from propaganda and media verbosity requires the humility of power in front of society. The balance of despair may pave the way for violence, but the loneliness of power and the depression of the population close the path to dialogue. He believes that we must continue to explore ways of negotiating with the power institutions. We still and always need mediating forces. It is important for groups deemed credible by power institutions and possessing social, scientific, and cultural authority, such as university professors, to take the initiative in dialogue with influential officials.
Stalemate Situation
Nevertheless, some have little hope for dialogue between the government and the people and the initiation of a series of reforms. Bijan Eshtari, a political analyst, previously referred to this as a stalemate situation in a written piece where he attempted to answer the question of where the protests are heading. In chess, a stalemate often occurs at the end of the game when all pieces are off the board except the king, or if they are there, they cannot make legal moves, and only the king can move, but if it moves, it will be in check.
Eshtari wrote that the reality is that our country is stuck in such a complex situation that it is difficult to predict the future. On one hand, we are dealing with a government that has no solution for the current crisis, not only lacking a solution but also having lost its maneuverability.
According to his writing, despite this, the intensity and scope of the protests have not yet reached a level that disrupts the current balance. Despite the unprecedented civil and peaceful demonstrations in Saqqez and the widespread civil protests by students, large segments of the population have not yet joined the civil protests. However, there is a possibility that this could happen, and if it does, the train of transformation will not stop until it reaches its final destination. But for now, the government is not entirely powerless.
Eshtari noted that parts of the population still support the government, and despite all the losses, the military and police forces are still serving the rulers, and the government is selling oil, and its financial situation has not yet become fragile. He wrote that his personal prediction is that we will enter a stage where both sides have equal strength, meaning that neither the government is strong enough to eliminate the opposition nor the opposition strong enough to overthrow the government.
Venezuelanization Situation
For years, economic experts have warned that Iran is at risk of becoming like Venezuela. These warnings have generally had less of a political direction, or at least the root cause has been more economic, with political consequences. As the general conditions in Iran become more critical, signs of the Venezuelanization of the economy have become more apparent than ever. Zero percent average economic growth, inflation over 40%, declining per capita income, liquidity exceeding 5,500 trillion tomans, reduced economic participation in the labor market, negative gross fixed capital formation, and lack of productivity are just some of the challenges facing Iran’s economy in recent years.
Eshtari, continuing in the same piece about remaining in a stalemate situation, suggested that from a political perspective, Iran is moving towards a Venezuelanization stage. In my opinion, we will reach a stage where the society splits into two parts: the majority opposing the government and the minority supporting the ruling authority and its supporters.
Welfare services will be directed solely towards the supporters of the government. Those who do not support the government will face more pressure, and the government will pursue patronage in the most severe manner possible. In such conditions, the government remains in place, but the opposition is also present and occasionally manifests in the form of temporary uprisings that are suppressed and then flare up again. This is the situation I call the Venezuelanization of Iran.
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