Why did the twenty-year Vision Document fail?
Why did the twenty-year Vision Document fail?
Throughout its existence, the Islamic Republic of Iran has emphasized more on actions than structures and more on narratives than realities. The same voluntarism that is most evident in the drafting of the Vision Document reveals how one can aspire to achieve a leading regional position in all areas without outlining a mechanism for change in domestic and foreign policies in line with the rapid global processes. This is mainly due to the limited understanding of governance capacities in present-day Iran.
On November 4, 2003, the twenty-year Vision Document of the Islamic Republic was approved during the government of Mohammad Khatami and two years later, in Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s government, it entered the implementation phase. According to this document, Iran was supposed to achieve the top economic, scientific, and technological position in the region by the year 2025 with an Islamic and revolutionary identity. However, over twenty years since setting this goal, not only have the stated objectives not been achieved, but due to the unity of Saudi Arabia and Turkey in the region, Iran has settled for much lower positions compared to its abundant capabilities. But why did this document fail so miserably?
Despite the overall economic indicators of the country showing growth until the end of the eighties, the implementation of sanctions on oil sales and central bank transactions led Iran into its lost decade, the nineties. Initially, although the political system showed willingness to exit the sanctions by electing Hassan Rouhani, the lack of adherence to political and economic requirements resulted in the lifting of sanctions and Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA becoming a nightmare for Iran’s economy in the nineties.
The risks of development for the ruling middle class are considered the driving force of development in the world today. According to Inglehart, the classes that have transitioned from survival values to expressive values pose new demands. Although this class had an upward growth trend until 2009, it was this year after the elections that Iran experienced the decline of this socially developmental force under the shadow of sanctions and the sense of government threat.
The lack of commitment to the requirements of development in today’s world is not a random occurrence but deeply rooted in principles such as politically calculative behavior, constructive relations with the world, belief in the foundation of the economy, and increasing national wealth production. However, what we have seen so far from the Islamic Republic is a clear absence of loyalty to these requirements. The political system relies on exceptionalism rather than rule-based idealism, wishful thinking instead of realism, military presence instead of economic presence, and ideological notions instead of scientific data, striving to establish a new order in the world today without paying attention to its capabilities.
Throughout its existence, the Islamic Republic of Iran has emphasized narratives over realities, actions over structures, and narratives over realities. The same willfulness that is most evident in drafting the vision document is now about how to achieve regional primacy in all areas without outlining a mechanism for change in domestic and foreign policy in line with the rapid global processes. This is mainly due to a limited understanding of governance capacities in present-day Iran, which has led to increasing inefficiencies in recent decades.
