Is the region on the brink of a full-scale war?
After the bloodiest day in Lebanon in nearly two decades, the big question now is whether this is the beginning of a much larger war. The central issue is Hezbollah’s arsenal, which is believed to have a stockpile of 150,000 missiles. Does this group have the capability and intention to use them? If the answer to both questions is yes, the region will face a devastating conflict that will shake the world and could plunge the Middle East into the inferno of war.
Western and Israeli intelligence agencies believe that this Shia group has hidden around this number of missiles in the hills of southern Lebanon.
It is estimated that among these missiles, there are about 10,000 precision-guided long-range missiles that could cause serious damage across Israel. The question is whether Hezbollah will eventually unleash this massive arsenal.
So far, this group has only fired a limited number in almost daily exchanges with Israel on the northern border. Israel has vowed escalation after 558 people, including 50 children, were killed in Lebanon on Monday.
Is there now the capability to do this? Israel has inflicted significant damage on Hezbollah’s capabilities over the past week, including eliminating key commanders and communication systems the group used to coordinate such attacks.
Recent attacks have significantly weakened Hezbollah’s wireless and manual communication systems.
But it’s not just their technical capability that matters. Seriously deploying these missiles requires permission from Iran. Hezbollah’s backers in Tehran have funded and supplied much of this group’s aerial equipment.
Hezbollah relies on Iranian money and support to maintain its power and strength.
Observers have long assumed that Iran wants to keep these missiles for a rainy day, as insurance for when Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Is this changing with Israel’s unprecedented attacks? Clues can be found in the remarks of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, who is attending the UN General Assembly in New York. He accused Israel of setting traps and desiring a broader war.
However, his tone was not aggressive. The implication of his statements was that Iran would not fall into such traps, the most important of which is likely allowing Hezbollah to waste that missile arsenal in response to Israeli provocations.
Iran’s Supreme Leader clearly did not encourage Hezbollah to increase its attacks. Foreign powers may find this somewhat reassuring. But war is not an exact science. Hezbollah is an organized entity, but it is currently in turmoil.
This group has been more provoked by Israel in recent days than ever before.
Is it still possible to be driven to much more destructive actions? If this group still retains the capability to unleash its firepower seriously, its leaders might be tempted to do so. This moment remains very dangerous for the region and beyond.