The Zangezur Corridor as an Obstacle to Iran-Russia Strategic Relations
The recent stance of senior Russian officials following Vladimir Putin’s visit to Baku regarding the Zangezur communication route in the South Caucasus region has once again heightened discussions about Russia’s approach to the Islamic Republic of Iran. The issue began when, after Ukraine’s attack on Russian soil, the capture of some of its cities, and the changing conditions on the battlefield, Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, made a two-day trip to Azerbaijan for the first time since the start of the war with Ukraine to explore ways to expand strategic cooperation and alliances between Azerbaijan and Russia. During this trip, Putin, along with other agreements, also raised issues about the Zangezur Corridor. Shortly after this visit, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced that Moscow supports the quick signing of a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan and the unblocking of the communication route.
Although after this stance, which openly threatened Iran’s national interests, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic summoned the Russian ambassador in Tehran and conveyed the Islamic Republic’s protest to this so-called strategic partner, the Russians not only did not retract this decision but only stated that while Moscow considers Tehran’s concerns, they emphasized that Moscow’s stance on the Zangezur Corridor is completely firm, and the only thing they intend to do is contact Iran for clarification. In other words, conveying this matter to Iran that the decision has been made and Iranian officials have no choice but to accept it.
Such a stance from Moscow comes at a time when the final text of the comprehensive strategic cooperation document between the two countries is ready to be signed, and both countries are preparing to finalize it. Nonetheless, it seems that Russia’s understanding of strategic relations differs from Iran’s understanding of this type of relationship, and the officials of this country recognize no limitations or red lines other than their own national interests and security. According to scientific texts, strategic relations require the existence or observance of certain necessities and elements, such as the necessity of having strategic interests and objectives in overlapping areas, the presence of a rival enemy or a common threat, an understanding of the international system and the rules of conduct within it, and the presence of political will in leaders, some of these elements are.
However, it seems that by supporting the Zangezur Corridor, Russia has undermined most of these strategic cooperation elements. Primarily, the opening of the Zangezur Corridor is an action completely against the interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran, but currently beneficial for Russia. With the opening of this corridor, Iran’s strategic connection with Europe will be severed, and Iran will not have control over this route, naturally losing the right to transit goods. Moreover, the establishment of the Zangezur Corridor reduces Iran’s neighbors from 15 to 14 countries, consequently affecting Iran’s strategic interests and geopolitical importance in the region. However, this communication route helps Moscow bypass sanctions during the period of Russia’s sanctions by Europe. On the other hand, developments in Ukraine have changed Russia’s position in the South Caucasus, and Moscow desires to extend its influence in Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, something that is implemented through the Zangezur Corridor. Therefore, Iran and Russia’s strategic interests and objectives in this area are not only different but also in conflict.
The presence of a rival enemy or a common threat is another factor of strategic relations. Although in recent years Russia and Iran have been united in animosity towards Western countries, with the new president coming to power in Iran and his stated positions on managing tensions with the West, Russian officials have concluded that before any action by Iran, they should act to open new fronts and show Tehran that they can change the entire regional equation against Iran with just one meeting and a few calls. Russia’s insistence on creating the Zangezur Corridor is, in fact, a gift that Putin gives to Iran’s regional rivals, namely Turkey and Azerbaijan, because Turkey can deliver its goods to Azerbaijan through Zangezur and reach Central Asia via the Caspian Sea, and Azerbaijan finds a direct route towards European countries.
An understanding of the international system and the rules of conduct within it is another element of strategic cooperation. Although both Iran and Russia have a revisionist approach toward Western rules of the international system and want their roles in the international system to be recognized, Russia’s revisionism is within the system framework, whereas Iran’s revisionism is anti-systemic.
Russia, as a country pursuing the identity of a great power, has never sought to step back from managing global crises and issues. In this context, whenever necessary, it has aligned with Western countries and supported multilateral international sanctions against Iran. Now, as Western countries in the form of NATO are supporting Ukraine, Russia, while benefiting from Iran’s support, has not put all its eggs in our country’s basket and, by leveraging its power elements, plays various cards to manage the Ukraine crisis, some of which, like the Zangezur Corridor, are completely detrimental to Iran.
Regarding the presence of political will in leaders, it seems that given the difference in power levels between Iran and Russia, the Kremlin has no intention of elevating its relations with Tehran to the level of strategic relations and prefers to maintain its relationship with Iran at the current level of interest-based relations. In fact, Russia, as a major power on a global scale, sees its hand open to play with regional actors like Iran according to its interests and change regional equations as it wishes. Unfortunately, the numerous problems and imbalances that the Islamic Republic of Iran has had in its foreign policy in recent years have made this type of exploitation possible for Russia.
Based on this, it seems that Iran-Russia relations are not of the strategic cooperation type but rather more of a forced or cautious cooperation to deal with temporary crises, and only contain elements of strategic relations. This issue is a bitter reality that can also have dangerous consequences in foreign policy, as one of the important conditions for successful action in the international arena and securing national interests and security is having multiple strategic allies. Therefore, measures should be taken to ensure that Russia moves beyond the level of these opportunistic relations and commits itself to creating a kind of stable and strategic relationship with Iran. To achieve this goal and elevate relations with Russia to a strategic level, Iran must reach a level of power in the region that forces Russia to negotiate and reach an understanding with the Islamic Republic for entering regional files and playing a role in West Asia, and consequently, gaining international credibility and status. Undoubtedly, establishing balance in foreign policy and Iran benefiting from various options to advance its goals and interests will be a positive and effective step in this regard.