A great war is on the way
A great war is on the way as communication devices in Lebanon have exploded, which, considering the extent and geographical spread, indicates another major escalation by Israel.
As if that wasn’t enough, a day after the walkie-talkie explosion, Israel carried out its deadliest airstrike against Beirut since the current round of conflicts began last October.
The pager attacks have sparked a wave of immediate analyses focusing on how these attacks align with Israel’s strategy, what the Israelis have been seeking, and particularly why these attacks are happening now.
One of the main drivers has been Benjamin Netanyahu’s personal motivations, who sees the continuation and even escalation of the war as his only ticket to maintaining the far-right coalition, thus staying in power and also delaying the day his corruption charges are reviewed.
Another driver is the broad hatred of Arabs in Israel, which intensified after Hamas attacked Israel.
The nature of the operations involving communication devices filled with explosives is indeed another driver. An operation of this magnitude and complexity, involving infiltration into supply lines and possibly creating fake companies, must have been planned and initiated long ago.
Therefore, attempting to answer why this attack is happening now with speculation about what was in the minds of the operation’s creators years ago is meaningless.
This is a type of operation that, while requiring significant effort and cost, can quickly become futile if compromised.
If one of those thousands of pagers exploded prematurely or if Hezbollah leaders discovered the operation, all the devices would be quickly discarded. Perhaps the Israelis concluded that Hezbollah was close to uncovering the operation.
None of the recent actions Israel has taken against Hezbollah, including the pager and walkie-talkie operations, advance even Israel’s immediate security goals, let alone long-term objectives.
Currently, Israel’s main goal regarding the Lebanese borders and confrontation with Hezbollah is to enable Israeli residents evacuated from northern Israel to return to their homes.
Escalating violence and tensions along the border do not make this goal more attainable.
The pager and walkie-talkie attacks might be an attempt to deliver a significant blow to Hezbollah without resorting to full-scale war, including a ground invasion of Lebanon. On the other hand, it might be preparation for such an invasion by weakening Hezbollah’s ability to defend itself.
In any case, Hezbollah feels under significant pressure to respond. Hezbollah’s leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, has publicly promised to retaliate at times and places of Hezbollah’s choosing.
Hezbollah has good reasons to continue trying to avoid a full-scale war, but Israel’s recent actions are so offensive that they cannot go unanswered.
In Washington, a key question is how much patience the United States has with Israel’s transgressions.
Additionally, the broader political and diplomatic costs that the United States incurs from its close association with Israel have increased.
The appropriate U.S. response is not only to recognize terrorism and oppose it regardless of who commits it but also to protect its interests by distancing itself from a country that is increasingly becoming a rogue state.