When will the dollar reach 40,000 tomans?
When will the dollar reach 40,000 tomans? According to Iran Gate, the fluctuations in the exchange rate in December 2022 have been so intense and widespread that many activists and experts believe the dollar price will soon enter the 40,000 toman range, and this event is inevitable. But when will this happen, and can the Raisi government find a measure to prevent the continuous devaluation of the rial?
At the beginning of December 2022, the dollar price experienced a significant increase, reaching the astonishing and unbelievable record of 37,000 tomans. This event occurred in the currency market, and the Ebrahim Raisi government tried to manage the situation by implementing market security policies and cash injections. However, conditions evolved in such a way that, despite a roughly 1,500 toman decrease in the dollar rate in recent days, there is no clear prospect for stabilizing the dollar price in channels below 40,000 tomans.
40,000 Toman Dollar
Iran Gate’s forecast of the currency market in late November indicated that the dollar rate would rise to around 37,000 tomans in the coming weeks. However, the government and the central bank would try to temporarily control this price by intervening in the currency market. In the same report published at the end of last month, it was also emphasized that the dollar price would stagnate in the 35,000 toman channel under the pressure of market makers.
But as stated, these prices are artificial and traditionally cannot be stabilized. In other words, the government is constantly pressing the price in the currency market, and such actions are akin to accumulating a large volume of floodwater behind the wall of a massive dam, which eventually cracks and the dam breaks. Ultimately, the flood that was supposed to be contained behind the dam is released with several times the initial destructive power.
The dollar price operates in the same manner. When governments compress the price spring, they should expect price jumps after a few weeks or at most a few months. Currently, experts believe that the cash reserves available to the government and the central bank are limited, and the currency injection policy will not last long. Therefore, it is expected that in the coming weeks of January 2023, we will face a severe price jump, one that could settle in the range of 41,000 to 42,000 tomans, meaning a more than 20% increase in the dollar rate in just two to three weeks.
Coin and Gold
According to field reports from the gold and coin market in Sabzeh Meydan, Tehran, each gram of 18-carat gold has been traded at around 1,590,000 tomans. Each Bahar Azadi coin also experienced an unprecedented jump, selling for over 17,500,000 tomans. Given the state of global markets and currency rate fluctuations, it is expected that if the dollar price grows by 20% in the coming weeks, gold prices will also enter the 1,750,000 toman range, and each coin, according to provided analyses, will be traded for over 19,000,000 tomans.
In such conditions, it can be said that the bubble of each full Bahar Azadi coin will experience a significant increase, rising by about 30%. This issue means the intensification of speculative activities and the flourishing of unproductive and completely destructive actions in the Iranian economy.
In this regard, other reports and analyses have been published in Iran Gate.
- Disaster at Istanbul Crossroads
- No Hope for the Future of Iran’s Economy: Part One
- Daily Record Breaking of Dollar Rate