Battle with Putin on Washington Time
The Shadow of U.S. Elections Over Ukraine
A few hours after the Supreme Court’s ruling on Donald Trump’s eligibility, Republicans rejected a proposal in the Senate, leaving aid to Ukraine shrouded in uncertainty.
The bipartisan bill on aid to Ukraine is dead, and the management of the U.S. Congress does not seem very favorable or effective. On February 7th, at the end of a tumultuous day and after months of intense negotiations, the U.S. Senate rejected a $120 billion bipartisan package, which included $60 billion in aid to Ukraine and $12 billion to Israel and 20 other countries for border security, with 50 votes against and 49 in favor. Republicans opposed this plan in response to Donald Trump’s request, and thus the supermajority of 60 votes, about ten more than the Democrats, was not achieved to pass this resolution.
Chuck Schumer, the Democratic majority leader of the U.S. Senate, in an effort to maintain support for Kyiv at this critical moment, when it seems the conflict is shifting in favor of Moscow, presented a new aid bill that removed the section related to enhancing U.S. border security. It is a kind of temporary plan solely to aid Ukraine and Israel with a $96 billion aid package.
It cannot be said whether it will pass or not. The level of tension between the two parties is currently very high, and at this time, the Supreme Court has been called to decide on another hot issue of the day: confirming Donald Trump’s eligibility or, conversely, removing him from the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, based on a request from the Colorado judiciary. This ruling could permanently bar the businessman from competing for the White House due to his role in the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.
Chaos in Congress
Even if Chuck Schumer’s bill is approved in the Senate, it must be voted on in the House of Representatives, where Republicans hold the majority and must be scheduled by House Speaker Mike Johnson, a loyal ally of Trump. On the evening of February 6th, Johnson held a vote to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, but incredibly, the Republican Party did not obtain the necessary votes, and the vote did not pass, an unprecedented event for Republicans and their representatives. Moments later, a Republican representative from Louisiana presented a bill to aid Israel, which also failed.
CNN, reporting on the chaos reigning in the House of Representatives and the conservative party, says it’s unclear whether Johnson, who leads a small majority held hostage by extremists, has the capacity or political space to pass the simplest laws. However, one evident fact is that as we move further into the November election campaigns, Congress’s inefficiency becomes more apparent, and the outlook for Ukraine grows increasingly bleak.
Does Europe Trust?
Faced with the chaos reigning in Congress, divided by serious conflicts and deep disagreements, European diplomats, who were previously worried that Donald Trump might be re-elected and fulfill his promise to withdraw from NATO, have begun to question the credibility of the U.S. Supreme Court, regardless of who the president is.
A senior European diplomat in Berlin expressed surprise, stating, ‘If Republicans are willing to bow to Trump to vote against supporting Ukraine, why should Europe trust the U.S. guarantee to defend every inch of NATO member countries’ territory?’
The threat from Congress to cut this aid comes as Europe announces a $54 billion aid package for Ukraine and EU countries commit to new arms assistance. Additionally, behind the scenes in Washington and Europe, there is a debate about the possibility of funding the war with over $300 billion of Russian central bank assets seized in Western countries, a process that is much more complicated than expected.
However, U.S. officials acknowledged that no aid could match the new $60 billion allocation from Congress, which includes strengthening air defenses, more tanks, missiles, and a massive amount of ammunition.
Putin’s Bet on Western Betrayal
U.S. President Joe Biden, in a harsh speech, directly attacked Donald Trump and rejected his claim on the Truth social platform that this bill is a very complex trap to blame Republicans for what radical Democrats have done at the borders.
Some Republican lawmakers, echoing Trump’s concerns about the impact of passing this bill on the presidential race, have even suggested that border security should not be addressed until after the November elections. However, Democrats claim their main concern is for Kyiv.
White House officials insist that this aid will eventually be approved because everyone knows that if these aids do not happen, it will have profound consequences, stating, ‘We cannot leave the stage now. This is what Putin is betting on.’ President Biden, recalling that every week and month without new aid means fewer artillery shells and air defense systems, emphasized that if the U.S. betrays Ukraine at this critical moment, it will never be forgotten in history.
The deadlock in funding aid packages for Ukraine and the Middle East is a testament to the fragmentation and division in Congress, where, in addition to the fundamental divide between Republicans and Democrats, intraparty differences are also dramatically increasing.
Against the backdrop of an election campaign that promises to be bitter and rough, this situation is likely to increase tensions. Moreover, Donald Trump’s shadow looms heavily over both parties’ efforts to break the deadlock. The former president, grappling with his legal issues and awaiting a court ruling on his disqualification from the Colorado primaries, seems to be betting on the institutional paralysis, which indeed confirms the weakness of the current administration, whose popularity, according to polls, has also declined in recent weeks.