BRICS Trap for Oil Countries Part One

The Trap of BRICS for Oil Countries

The Trap of BRICS for Oil Countries: According to Iran Gate, BRICS has laid a significant trap for oil countries, which will naturally be effective with their membership in this group. Most analysts believe that BRICS intends to organize its efforts to prevent the collapse of this group by involving the three oil countries of Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates.

The proposal from the group known as BRICS to six countries—Saudi Arabia, Argentina, the United Arab Emirates, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Egypt, and Ethiopia—for membership has recently faced many reactions. Many believe that BRICS has organized this invitation to prevent its collapse by Russia, South Africa, and China. However, the question arises as to what justification BRICS has for this strange invitation to these six countries, apart from Saudi Arabia and Argentina, whose membership has been discussed for a long time. No apparent justification is seen for inviting the other four countries by BRICS.

Iran Gate, in a two-part series, has examined the reasons for this decision by the members of the emerging economies group known as BRICS. The current report is the first part of this series, providing a general overview of the overall status of BRICS members and the deep gap between them and the six countries known as the BRICS Plus group.

A Deepening Gap

Before the recent BRICS summit in Johannesburg, many analysts reported a deep gap between BRICS members. This gap has been created due to the significant distance between China and other members, and the Ukraine war has also posed serious risks to Russia’s presence in this group. These risks are so serious that Vladimir Putin, the President of the Russian Federation, did not even dare to travel to Johannesburg and participate in this decisive meeting.

Therefore, it was expected that if BRICS intended to accept the membership of other countries, this membership would be among countries with high economic growth and potential compatible with global competition. However, the decision BRICS made in recent days raised the question of what policy this controversial group will pursue to fill the mentioned gap, and how the six countries that received the BRICS invitation can play a role in eliminating this deadly gap.

BRICS and BRICS Plus at a Glance

Examining the three variables of population, GDP, and oil production of BRICS and BRICS Plus members can be a guide to better understanding the playing field. Most experts believe that choosing these six countries for BRICS membership not only cannot fill the existing gap but will also increase the differences among members. However, this choice will also create new potentials for the three main BRICS members: China, India, and Russia.

Before any further points, it is necessary to examine the mentioned variables concerning the 11 BRICS and BRICS Plus member countries to gain a better perspective on the status of this group.

With the invitation of new members, the BRICS group now encompasses 46% of the world’s total population. The BRICS coalition, now with eleven members, represents over 3.7 billion people, who will compete against the other 4.3 billion people and challenge the world’s economic giants.

India, with a population exceeding 1.444 billion, ranks at the top, while the United Arab Emirates, with a population of less than 10 million, is at the bottom of the BRICS population ranking. Of course, the Chinese are very close to India, ranking second, with these two countries together accounting for 35% of the world’s total population. The other nine members of this group collectively account for about 800 million people, which includes about 10% of the world’s total population.

However, when it comes to examining BRICS’s share of the global economy, we encounter a significant decrease in numbers. The Chinese, with a vast lead, are at the top of the table and have a strong presence in the second rank globally. China’s GDP in 2023 is estimated at over 19 trillion dollars, which is equivalent to a 184% share of the People’s Republic of China from the global economic pie.

Ethiopia, with a GDP of 156 billion dollars this year, indicates a significant and undeniable gap within the BRICS group. Ethiopia accounts for less than 0.015% of the total global economy, while this country, with a population of 126 million, holds 16% of the world’s total population.

But the last variable examined is the oil production of BRICS and BRICS Plus member countries. According to statistics published by the World Trade Organization, oil production is the only sector where the new BRICS entrants have been able to increase the factors in favor of BRICS. Previously, BRICS produced about 20% of the world’s oil, but now the three new BRICS Plus members—Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates—alone produce as much oil as all BRICS members combined.

Saudi Arabia, with sales of over 12 million barrels of oil, has a 13% share of the world’s oil production. Naturally, the Saudis, who are the largest oil producer in the world, are now leading in BRICS as well. Russia, which has lost its top oil production position in BRICS, is in second place with over 11 million barrels of oil, equivalent to 12% of total global oil production. Iran, with a 4.1% share of global oil production, ranks fifth among BRICS and BRICS Plus members.

However, South Africa and Ethiopia, due to the lack of natural oil resources, are at the bottom of the oil production table in BRICS. Egypt, with a 0.7% share, and India and Argentina, each with a 0.8% share, are ranked above Ethiopia and South Africa. Overall, BRICS produces 40 million barrels of oil per day, which means a 43% share of total global oil production. Saudi Arabia and Russia alone account for over 25% of the world’s total oil production and about 40% of BRICS’s oil production.

Iran Gate will analyze the existing data in the next part of the current series.