The realization of the budget is very far off
The realization of the budget is very far off
The annual budget laws are undoubtedly one of the most important strategies of the country and the government. Based on this strategy, the government actually determines its one-year policy, and this very policy can also lay the foundation for the country’s future economy.
Now that the parliament is reviewing the budget bill for the year 1404, it is better, during this review which also includes mid-term goals, to address some of the fundamental obstacles facing the government. Essentially, to strengthen the country’s economic base, the fundamental obstacles to those goals set in the budget should be removed.
It would be better to take a look at one of the parliament’s resolutions and next year’s budget bill. In my opinion, Clause P of Note 3 of the budget bill, which incidentally has been approved in the public session of the parliament, and as stated in the bill, is also from previous parliamentary resolutions, can carry this discussion.
According to Clause P of Note 3 of the budget bill, in order to encourage the subsidiaries of the Ministry of Oil to achieve the general policies of the seventh program, increase crude oil and gas production, and turn Iran into the regional energy hub, the resources of the oil and gas investment account, subject to Clause B of Article 14 of the seventh development program law, are to be provided solely from the increase in sustainable crude oil production to more than three million seven hundred and fifty thousand barrels per day, leading to oil exports, and also the increase in net natural gas exports to more than sixteen billion cubic meters per year, equivalent to 5 percentage units of the mentioned cash surplus exports. The share of the National Iranian Oil Company and the subsidiaries of the Ministry of Oil from the mentioned oil export surplus is set at sixteen (16) percentage units. This clause actually has two important parts: the first part is turning Iran into a regional energy hub according to the general policies of the seventh program, and the second part is laying the groundwork for exporting more than 3 million 750 thousand barrels daily.
The realization of each of these parts requires a lot of groundwork, and at the same time, some questions need to be answered. To become a regional hub, especially in the energy sector, very special and specific measures must be implemented.
Undoubtedly, with the presence of energy giant countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar—especially in terms of gas exports—Iran cannot easily enter the energy competition.
The field of competition in the energy sector is not so vast and extensive that one could obligate the government to achieve that goal by approving a clause from a note. Currently, each of these countries not only has its own markets but has also taken over Iran’s markets, and for Iran to reclaim its oil markets, it must both strategize and wait a long time.
However, the first step to enter the competition is massive investments in the oil and gas sector. For example, in 1400, the Ministry of Oil announced that the required investment in the oil sector is 230 billion dollars, in the gas sector 130 billion dollars, in the refining and distribution of oil products 20 billion dollars, and in the petrochemical industry about 65 billion dollars.
In total, 445 billion dollars must be invested to perhaps maintain the current situation. This amount was based on the estimates of 1400, and undoubtedly, each year this investment amount will increase.
Has Iran provided the necessary groundwork and removed the limitations to attract such an amount of investment? And if the limitations are removed—which, given recent policies, is currently unlikely—will regional countries easily give Iran the space? Answering each of these questions requires another time.
But for the second part of this clause to be implemented, it means that Iran must have the ability to produce more than 5 million barrels per day to be able to export more than 3 million barrels of it. Achieving this requires an investment of more than 445 billion dollars, which experts must calculate.
Once, Iran was supposed to become the number one country in the region based on the 1400 vision plan, which was drafted in 1380. Iran was supposed to become the number one country in the region in all respects by that year. Now, 3 years have passed since the vision, and Iran not only did not become the number one country in the region but also fell further behind the regional countries year by year. The reasons for this lag are clear and do not need to be retold and republished. Legislators should just be told that laws must be built according to the capabilities of the government and the country, not based on unattainable ideals and dreams.