Duel at the White House
Duel at the White House
Zelensky and Trump: Agreement or Threat
In Washington, it’s the day of signing a mining agreement, but the ambiguity behind this agreement between Trump and Zelensky reflects the uncertainty in Ukraine’s fate. With the usual speed of change in direction that Donald Trump has brought to international relations, today Volodymyr Zelensky was welcomed at the White House, a place that just a few days ago was labeled as dictatorial.
The U.S. President said before the face-to-face meeting that it would be very good and that they would get along very well. ‘I have great respect for him,’ he said, denying that he called the Ukrainian head of state a dictator. He responded to a journalist, ‘No, I don’t think I said that.’ This kind of denial is a challenge that Zelensky must also face after accusing Trump of living in a bubble of Russian misinformation.
The Ukrainian leader, who was received with full respect in Washington, announced that an agreement would be signed for the exploitation of his country’s mineral resources by the United States.
However, the text of the agreement is very different from what Zelensky refrained from signing less than five days ago, and informed sources likened it to a colonial-style plunder imposed on a desperate country.
In the current draft of the document, there is mention of a joint reconstruction fund, but there is no reference to Trump’s initial demand for $500 billion in compensation for the military and financial aid allocated by the U.S., which independent analysts actually estimate at around $120 billion.
This, along with the fact that many other details still need to be clarified, will not prevent Trump from presenting the agreement as a stunning victory for himself and Americans.
What does the agreement foresee?
The final version of this agreement, dated February 25 and published by Kyiv Independent, includes the creation of a fund that will also be open to third parties, with Kyiv being funded with 50% of the income generated from the future monetization of state mineral resources, including oil, gas, and related logistics costs.
This fund will play a significant role in the development of some of Ukraine’s mineral resources through financing extraction projects.
In recent days, Trump has repeatedly talked about rare lands, but he probably meant critical minerals, a group of raw materials that includes rare earths and are essential for some strategic sectors of the economy such as electronic defense or energy transition.
Ukraine, which does not have significant reserves of rare earths, has underground reserves of critical minerals including lithium, graphite, cobalt, and titanium. Moreover, there is a risk that the country’s subsoil may not be as rich in raw materials as Washington believes.
On paper, the extraction potential is enormous, but in practice, as Politico writes, the extent of Ukraine’s mineral resources remains largely a mystery. The Kyiv government reports the existence of more than 20,000 reserves and mining sites, only 8,000 of which are realistically exploitable.
No guarantees for Kyiv
While Trump considers himself responsible for a victory that benefits the United States, what this agreement brings for Ukraine is less clear.
In addition to crucial issues such as the extent of U.S. participation in the fund and the terms of joint ownership agreements that need to be discussed in subsequent agreements, the document makes no mention of a U.S. commitment to defend the attacked country.
Even if he succeeds in removing the punitive aspects of the proposed agreement, the truth is that Zelensky is trying to use his country’s resources as leverage to secure the security guarantees Ukraine needs for its survival after any peace agreement.
Yesterday in Istanbul, Russian and American diplomats met again in negotiations that practically sideline Kyiv.
For this reason, the Ukrainian leader will instead be at the forefront of participants on Sunday in London at a session organized by Keir Starmer for joint European defense and Ukraine’s security. According to Downing Street, this meeting will include leaders from some EU countries and non-EU countries, in addition to senior EU and NATO officials, but the meeting has expanded compared to a similar one held in Paris by Emmanuel Macron in recent days and will include heads of state from Norway, Sweden, Finland, the Czech Republic, Romania, and notably Turkey, which is the latest change in recent hours.
Trump: Ambiguous Ally or Enemy?
Smiles and handshakes aside, Zelensky’s trip to Washington takes place in an atmosphere of tension across the Atlantic and at the end of a week when neither Starmer nor Macron managed to secure a commitment from Trump on Ukraine and Europe’s security. The businessman said he supports NATO’s Article 5, but when asked what the United States would do if British peacekeepers in Ukraine were attacked in the future, he replied that the British know how to take care of themselves, but if they need help, we will always be with them. Recent events have left Ukrainians feeling abandoned and betrayed, even angering some Republican senators, reigniting debates about Trump’s motivations and how they might affect the possibility of achieving a fair and lasting peace agreement.
Is the president motivated by personal animosity towards Zelensky, or is he trying to deceive Vladimir Putin to distance him from Chinese President Xi Jinping, and how much do his actions reflect a long-term shift in U.S. foreign policy? These are questions that were enough in Europe to revive the debate about the need for rearmament and self-defense guarantees, but in Ukraine, these issues make the difference between an unfavorable agreement and an existential defeat.
The moment of truth may soon arrive, revealing that the transatlantic alliance has fractured, and Brussels, like Kyiv, must become independent from America or even stand against it.
Zelensky is aware of the importance of an active U.S. role in security guarantees. What is revealed from the draft agreement offers no guarantees in this regard, but it keeps a communication channel open at a time when relations with Washington are tense due to Trump’s harsh words and threats.
And it seems that this is enough for Zelensky at the moment, who probably believes he can negotiate with Trump at another time.
When this agreement is clearly defined, we can talk about the potential economic benefits for Kyiv, but for now, we must only identify its political weight for Ukraine in a critical situation.