Earthquake in the Kremlin

Earthquake in the Kremlin

According to Iran Gate, Russian commanders have experienced tense and long nights in recent weeks, caught between promotions, suspensions, and dismissals. This turmoil is essentially a consequence and outcome of their roles in the Wagner Group rebellion incident.

In recent days, it seemed that several senior officers were aligned with Prigozhin. The Wall Street Journal reported the arrest of 13 officers and the suspension and dismissal of 15 others due to high treason, including well-known officers like General Ivan Popov and Surovikin.

There are many commanders who agree with Wagner and do not want to follow President Vladimir Putin. According to what Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, told Reuters last week, the exact number of these commanders is fourteen.

According to a report from the Wall Street Journal, thirteen officers were arrested, including Mikhail Mizintsev, known as the Butcher of Mariupol, who is considered close to the Wagner private militia. Fifteen others were suspended or dismissed for participating in high treason. This event is certainly seen as more than just an internal rift in the Russian army. While we do not know the names of all the disgraced officers, it is certain that this list does not include Sergei Shoigu, the Russian Defense Minister, Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff, and Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of the Chechen forces, who are at the top of the list of enemies of the Wagner mercenaries and their leader Prigozhin.

At least according to Moscow, one of the individuals on that list is Sergei Surovikin, who is said to be resting, an expression from the Kremlin that is not very reliable. There aren’t many options: with the Tsar or against the Tsar, and therefore with Prigozhin. The fate of this second group remains shrouded in mystery.

News related to high-ranking army officers is increasingly worrying. Stanislav Zhitsky, a naval captain, was shot seven times from behind while jogging daily. Russian sources claimed Ukraine was involved in his death, a claim reinforced by a video released the day before his killing by Ukrainian intelligence threatening that the countdown for retribution had begun.

However, due to the Kremlin’s previous record of settling scores with opponents, this claim has been somewhat questioned. It is also said that the threat from the Ukrainian intelligence chief was related to the killing of General Oleg Tsokov, who was hit by a long-range missile in a hotel in the city of Berdyansk, Ukraine.

But the man of the day is General Ivan Popov, who announced that after reporting the dire situation on the Ukrainian front to senior military officials in Moscow and condemning the poor management of operations in Ukraine, he was dismissed from his position. This dispute was revealed by him, who was the commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, through a 4-minute audio message broadcasted by Andrei Gurulyov, a parliament member with nationalist stances. In this audio message, Popov claims that the Ukrainians could not break through our lines, but instead, we were stabbed in the back by our own leaders.

The general referred to a shortage of artillery in response to enemy attacks and weaknesses in reconnaissance operations due to the low number of drones or their neutralization by enemy countermeasures. He then admitted to the heavy losses suffered by the Russian army and emphasized that these are not new points and have previously been reported by multiple witnesses from the southern front. In his reports, senior leaders remain in the crosshairs of his accusations.

Your choice is only between two options: staying silent out of fear and saying what they want to hear, or speaking the truth about what is really happening and the issues that truly exist. Out of respect for all the Russian soldiers killed in this war, I cannot lie. In addition to all these raised issues, a Telegram channel close to the Wagner Group also pointed out another issue: the lack of rotation for forces engaged in long-term frontline battles.

Ivan Popov did not limit himself to this audio message; during an interview with Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov, he clearly and transparently discussed all the existing problems and shortages on the war front. This meeting took place in Bryansk, a city that was attacked the day after the interview by a British warship with a long-range Storm Shadow cruise missile, an attack that could have resulted in the deaths of many personnel, including Commander Oleg Tsokov.

Russia, last week, by reissuing a reassuring message, insisted on presenting a picture of normalcy and announced that the Wagner private militia, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, handed over large amounts of weapons, about 2,000 pieces, including armored vehicles. This claim could be evidence that the agreement brokered by Belarus is being implemented. However, no one has a clear and precise idea of what is happening behind the Kremlin walls between secret contacts and possible deals.

Ivan Popov’s action cannot be equated with the unsuccessful rebellion of a potential coup plotter, as he was a commander leading part of a legal system and official army. If his statements are credible, they could have consequences among his colleagues, as they remind of common problems that apparently have never been addressed by superiors.

Another commander whose fate remains unknown is Surovikin, who disappeared after appearing in a video during the Wagner militia rebellion, in which he asked his friend Prigozhin’s soldiers to stop. A parliament member said about his absence that the senior officer is resting and currently unavailable, a statement that did not dispel doubts about his dismissal or even arrest, as many consider him very close to the Wagner rebels.

The Wall Street Journal considers the scenario that this commander is in detention but not in prison to be plausible. The same fate is predicted for other high-ranking officers, including General Mikhail Mizintsev, the Butcher of Mariupol, the former Deputy Minister of Defense, as well as General Andrei Yudin and the number two in military intelligence, Vladimir Alekseev, who were released after several days of interrogation.

Despite all the criticisms of the management of the war in Ukraine and after all that should have led to the end of Shoigu and Gerasimov, it seems that the position of these two has been strengthened more than ever. In other words, their position has been solidified alongside Vladimir Putin more firmly than before.

But they were not the only ones who benefited from the chaos created by Prigozhin. Another of these individuals is Viktor Zolotov, the head of the National Guard and former personal bodyguard of Putin, who challenged Alexei Navalny to a fight in the judo ring. During the tense hours of June 24, he asked his men to defend Moscow and resist to the death if necessary.

American expert Dana Massico reminds that Sergei Surovikin is a credible figure. He has always followed Putin, and this could make the Kremlin cautious and make decisions without emotional reactions, at least in the near future. The Wall Street Journal explains that Vladimir Putin has not yet decided on the actions to be taken.

Analysts believe that the hierarchy of promotions and demotions in critical moments is a common practice, especially if the political establishment has to pass tough tests on the battlefield and behind the political scenes in Moscow. Intrigues, ambitions, and the divide-and-rule method are common in absolute governments.

Meanwhile, real, hypothetical, and unreal purges bring many crises, especially where one of the claimants is an absolute leader. Similar stories have been heard before about Saddam Hussein, Gaddafi, Assad, Kim, and their potentially treacherous advisors and possible ailments, with real news mixed with psychological warfare operations.

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