Fact-Checking the Claim of Liquidity Reduction in Raisi’s Government
According to IranGate, Ebrahim Raisi’s government has cited the negative growth of liquidity after 9 years as one of its achievements in the year since it started its activities, but how accurate is this claim?
The weak performance of Ebrahim Raisi’s government in the year since it began has forced state media to build a resume. These media outlets, which continue to use statistics and deceive the general audience to elevate Raisi’s government and undermine Rouhani’s, have gone so far as to even question the official statistics of the government.
The Illusion of Liquidity Reduction in Raisi’s Government
Since the rise of the thirteenth government, the IRNA news agency has consistently tried to portray the economic performance of Raisi’s cabinet positively. Now, on the first anniversary of Raisi’s government taking office, they have published a report titled ‘Part of the Thirteenth Government’s Record One Year After Establishment’, highlighting some seemingly positive performances of the government. Despite many flaws in this report, especially in its economic statements, one point is particularly surprising. In this report, IRNA has named the negative growth of liquidity after 9 years as one of the positive actions of the government’s economic team. But what is the reality? A brief look at the Central Bank’s monthly reports shows that not only has liquidity growth not been negative in the thirteenth government, but it has also reached one of the highest figures in the history of Iran’s economy. Ebrahim Raisi began his role as the head of Iran’s government on August 3, 2021. According to the Central Bank, liquidity in Iran’s economy at the end of June that year was 3,705 trillion tomans. However, by the end of June 2022, this figure had reached 5,104 trillion tomans, meaning the liquidity volume in Iran’s economy grew by 377% over this year. The chart below shows the trend of liquidity changes from June 2020 to June 2021.
Liquidity Reduction in April Was a Government Achievement
On the other hand, liquidity growth was only negative in April 2022, which is neither a reliable achievement nor an unusual occurrence. According to available statistics, in the past 16 years, liquidity growth in April has been negative five times, from 2006 to 2009 and also in 2013, and in none of these instances was it sustainable or did it control the runaway inflation of Iran’s economy. Even in April 2021, liquidity growth was only about 0.4%. Overall, examining monthly liquidity statistics shows that liquidity growth in April each year registers its lowest level, and this is unrelated to the performance of different governments. The chart below shows the monthly liquidity growth from June 2020 to June 2021.
The Government’s Statistical Manipulation Continues
It is unclear by what logic the government refers to the negative growth of liquidity as one of its achievements. However, the issue does not end there. Raisi’s government has admitted that part of its budget deficit has been addressed through borrowing from state-owned companies. On the other hand, an examination of the Central Bank’s report shows that the amount of borrowing by the government and state-owned companies from the banking network has increased by 45% in the past year. This is while many monetary and banking experts have warned that this action by the government will lead to controlling liquidity growth in the current conditions and a liquidity explosion and inflation in the future. In other words, the government has postponed the growth of liquidity to the future for the sake of statistical manipulation and controlling current liquidity. Perhaps it would be better for the government, instead of building a resume and trying to deceive the public, to strengthen its economic performance so that improvements are reflected not in state media but within the society itself. Certainly, in this way, the popularity of the ‘Leader of the Deprived’ will also be preserved, and the government will not need lies for its stability.