Geopolitical Challenges of the Middle East
The condemnation of Israel’s attack on Iran by Saudi Arabia is considered a notable development in the complex equations of the Middle East. This stance, which appears contradictory to the gradual rapprochement between Riyadh and Tel Aviv in recent years, requires a thorough and comprehensive examination. In this report, we explore the various dimensions of this strategic decision by Saudi Arabia.
Regional Geopolitical Dynamics
The Middle East has always been a scene of complex and sometimes contradictory interactions among regional powers. Saudi Arabia, as one of the key players in this region, has adopted a multifaceted strategy in recent years.
On one hand, the country seeks to strengthen its position as the leader of the Arab and Islamic world, and on the other, it aims to play a constructive role in regional equations. Among these, relations with Israel and Iran form two main axes of Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy.
Contradictions in the Positions of Arab Countries
The revelation of the content of secret meetings between Arab officials and the U.S. Secretary of State after the October 7, 2023 events unveils hidden complexities in the foreign policies of Arab countries.
While these countries outwardly defend Palestinian rights, behind closed doors, they have taken a completely different stance.
For instance, in secret meetings, Saudi officials have described Hamas as a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood and a terrorist group that poses a threat not only to Israel but also to Arab leaders.
This duality in positions indicates a deep gap between the declared and actual policies of Arab countries.
Revelations from Bob Woodward’s book show that in the initial meeting with Antony Blinken, the U.S. Secretary of State, after the October 7 events, Mohammed bin Salman merely wished for the problems to disappear.
In the same meeting, he emphasized that the process of normalizing relations with Israel is not dead, but under current conditions, progress is not possible.
This cautious stance was in line with the reactions of other Arab leaders. For example, the President of Egypt focused solely on maintaining the 1979 peace agreement and preventing the displacement of Palestinians to Egypt.
Transformation in Saudi-Israeli Relations
In past decades, Saudi-Israeli relations have been accompanied by ideological and political tensions.
However, the emergence of common threats, especially what both sides refer to as the danger of Iran’s influence expansion, has paved the way for a gradual convergence between Riyadh and Tel Aviv.
This convergence, although not yet reaching the level of official and public relations, is ongoing in the form of covert intelligence and security cooperation.
Domestic Considerations and Public Opinion
One of the most important factors influencing Saudi foreign policy is domestic considerations and public opinion. Saudi society, like many Arab societies, does not have a positive view of Israel, and the Palestinian issue remains one of the main concerns of the people in this country.
Therefore, the Saudi government is compelled to consider these sensitivities in its stances.
The condemnation of Israel’s attack on Iran and the support for the establishment of a Palestinian state can be analyzed within this framework.
Vision 2030 and Saudi Arabia’s International Image
Saudi Arabia’s social and economic reform program, known as Vision 2030, is the main strategy of Mohammed bin Salman for the future of this country.
In a January 2024 meeting in Al-Ula, the Saudi Crown Prince explicitly stated his desire to advance the normalization process with Israel immediately and in line with achieving the goals of Vision 2030.
This program, designed to diversify the economy and reduce dependency on oil, requires attracting foreign investment and extensive international cooperation.
However, regional tensions and especially the conflicts following October 7, 2023, have created serious challenges for advancing this program.
In initial meetings after these events, Mohammed bin Salman called for the disappearance of problems and emphasized that although the normalization process with Israel has not stopped, under current conditions, progress is not possible. This stance shows that Saudi leaders are well aware of the impact of regional developments on their developmental goals.
In line with achieving Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia seeks to present a moderate and responsible image of itself on the global stage. This approach has led the country to propose two essential preconditions for normalizing relations with Israel: establishing calm in Gaza and charting a clear path towards the establishment of a Palestinian state. These conditions indicate that Saudi Arabia, in its path to achieving its developmental goals, cannot and does not want to be indifferent to regional issues.
Regional Role and International Standing
Saudi Arabia is striving to enhance its role in regional and international equations. This country, once known merely as an oil power, now seeks to play a more active role in resolving regional conflicts. The stance on Israel’s attack on Iran can be assessed within this grand strategy.
Prospect of Normalizing Relations
The discussion of normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel has been one of the central topics in recent Middle Eastern developments. Saudi Arabia’s reaction to the extensive Israeli air force attacks on Iran’s military installations reflects the complexity of evolving relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv.
In a cautious statement, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the attack on Iranian soil and called for an end to regional tensions. The lack of direct reference to Israel in this statement indicates a change in Riyadh’s diplomatic approach compared to the past decade.
In the context of regional power balance policy, Saudi Arabia has adopted a dual approach.
While the country assisted Tel Aviv during Iran’s attack on Israel, we have recently witnessed the rapprochement of Riyadh and Tehran.
The meeting of Iran’s new foreign minister with Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh shows Iran’s efforts to get closer to Arab countries and isolate Israel.
Mohammed bin Salman’s role in this is significant. The young and forward-looking Saudi Crown Prince has a different approach to the Palestinian issue compared to his predecessors. According to informed sources, he told Antony Blinken in January that he personally gives less importance to the Palestinian issue.
Bin Salman’s plan to modernize Saudi Arabia and reduce dependency on oil has increased hopes for normalizing relations with Israel.
However, Saudi Arabia has officially made any normalization agreement with Israel conditional on resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Israeli experts warn that Saudi Arabia’s focus on rapprochement with Iran could weaken an alliance that has the potential to ensure long-term stability in the region. Ultimately, Saudi Arabia is at a historical turning point.
According to Saudi experts and bin Salman’s advisors, cooperation with Israel could bring significant economic, security, and technological opportunities for Riyadh.
Saudi Arabia’s final decision regarding relations with Israel will not only affect the future of bilateral relations but also the equations of the entire Middle East region.
Conclusion
Saudi Arabia’s condemnation of Israel’s attack on Iran should be analyzed within the framework of this country’s grand strategy in the region and internationally. This stance reflects the complexities of foreign policy in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia’s attempt to maintain a balance between conflicting interests.
In the current situation, Saudi Arabia is striving to maintain its position as a regional power and create the groundwork for playing a more constructive role in international equations.
Although this approach may face challenges in the short term, it can serve to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s position in the international system in the long term.