How the Stock Market Shrunk Under Raisi’s Government
The fluctuations of the Tehran Stock Exchange’s overall index in the first half of 2022 were much more severe than experts had predicted. Additionally, the market situation led to a large outflow of real money from the capital market, with no replacement for the exiting funds.
Ebrahim Raisi took over the executive branch when the Tehran Stock Exchange’s overall index was on a steep upward trend on August 3, 2021. The index was at 1,375,000 units, and many shareholders believed Raisi’s slogans would change the market atmosphere and set both large and small transactions on a roll.
However, just one month later, with the composition of the thirteenth government’s cabinet becoming clear, the trend of index fluctuations completely changed. The market entered a declining phase, and this situation continued until the end of 2021.
The Artificial Green of the Stock Market in Spring 2022
The Tehran Stock Exchange entered 2022 with the overall index at 1,390,000 units. The fluctuations in the first quarter of the year led to an unexpectedly high return for the spring season. However, most experts believe this growth was not due to the natural trend of the capital market but was the result of government interventions in the internal affairs of this sector.
As a result, many predicted that the surprising upward trend of the stock market would not last long and would stop soon. This is exactly what happened, and the Tehran Stock Exchange’s overall index began a downward trend entering the summer.
How the Index Melted in Summer
The fluctuations were so extensive and intense that analysts did not expect such a pattern from the index. Moreover, Ebrahim Raisi’s government, with its occasional and unprofessional interventions, exacerbated the recession dominating the market. The continuation of command economy policies by the thirteenth government led the overall index to fall to 1,355,000 units in September, the lowest level in 2022.
This occurred while stock market shareholders were extremely angry and worried about the future of investments in this domain. The concerns intensified to the point of leading to gatherings by dissatisfied and loss-stricken stock market participants. Protests that were previously held in front of the Parliament building and the Plan and Budget Organization were now directed at the Stock Exchange Organization, with slogans harsher than ever, none of which the Raisi government had answers for.
The Stock Market Today
As mentioned, the stock market ended the summer under unfavorable conditions. This situation continued unabated and even more intensely into October, darkening the investment outlook in the capital market. The overall index was on the verge of falling to the 1,200,000-unit channel, considered by experts as the floor for 2022. However, some analysts view the situation more pessimistically and believe there is a significant chance that this support floor could be broken in the winter.
The havoc wreaked by command economy policies on both micro and macroeconomic management has led to a massive outflow of real money that once revitalized the stock market. This has caused many stock market participants, despite suffering heavy losses, to consolidate their remaining capital and consider returning to other parallel markets.
Now, the number of risks threatening the market is increasing. Many believe that the Stock Exchange Organization, under the leadership of Majid Eshqi, will not be able to manage this volume of risk. From the potential rationing of gas for industries in the coming weeks to the failed and drawn-out JCPOA negotiations under the thirteenth government, all are among the risks surrounding Iran’s economy and consequently the capital market. The next part of this report will analyze each of these risks and the unprincipled management by the government.
Numerous analyses and reports on the stock market and Iran’s economic situation have been prepared and compiled in Iran Gate. For convenience, we have listed a few of them related to this topic below.
- Raisi’s Super Slogans Were Hot Air
- Raisi’s Stock Market Promises: Slogans That Were Expensive for Nothing
- Disaster at Istanbul Crossroads