Iran on the Brink of Stalemate Sanctions
Iran is on the brink of stalemate sanctions as it faces a wave of public protests that seem never-ending. This time, the protests are being seriously reflected in international media. The reactions of European and American officials to the events in Iran have intensified day by day, hour by hour. While Iranian people and politicians have been accustomed to various forms of condemnation, statements, and even sanctions, the way sanctions are expressed and implemented in recent specific cases is different from the past.
The basis of citizenship protests and their intertwining with various global events, particularly their widespread civil basis, has taken these protests beyond limited and specific issues like the protests against the frauds that occurred in 2009.
The consequences of the confrontations, sanctions, and penalties that different countries have adopted and will adopt against Iran are different from past sanctions. With a miscalculation in dealing with recent events, the Iranian regime is entering a path that ends in a deadlock, and these new sanctions will indeed create this deadlock.
Cutting the Political Breathing Space of the Iranian Regime through Citizen Interaction
One of the key changes in recent weeks is that Iran has become unsafe for citizens of European countries and America, as well as dual-national Iranians. This significant change can be clearly observed in the fresh warnings from Western officials about traveling to Iran and, beyond that, the French government’s request for its citizens to leave Iran. Few people do not understand the relatively obvious reasons for these decisions by European officials.
European governments and the United States are deeply concerned about their citizens being taken hostage and imprisoned in this political and social turmoil inside Iran and are never willing to take risks in this area.
It should be noted that it has been a while since the new program by the United States, Canada, and over fifty countries worldwide to counter the hostage-taking programs of citizens and blackmail for their release by hostile governments. This program, which was one of the first initiatives of the Biden administration, was actually spearheaded by governments like Canada, which had been involved in such ominous interactions with the Chinese government. Now, combating the hostage-taking of citizens and blackmail in exchange for them has moved beyond formalities and statements.
The United States, in particular, is continuously monitoring the activities of citizens from specific countries, especially countries like Iran, on its soil and has defined special structures to protect its ordinary citizens and security personnel worldwide. The comings and goings and interactions of Western citizens with Iran and Iranians hold great value for Iran. The economic dimensions of tourism and the growth of income from tourism are topics that are easily understood.
Beyond that, with the restriction of movements and contacts of citizens from other countries with Iranians, many academic contacts and interactions will be limited, many citizen-centered technical and technological services will disappear, and many cultural exchanges and dialogues will turn into dreams. This is a significant loss for Iran.
We may find such developments unbelievable under current conditions; however, in the maximum insecurity of the social and security space for Western citizens and the official warnings and requests to avoid traveling to and leaving Iran, these developments will have tangible and natural consequences.
While Canada has officially joined the countries that have asked their citizens not to travel to Iran, the depth of the potential damages from cutting citizen and cultural ties between Iranians and the West should be assessed after a short period. This period will certainly not even be a year.
The Stalemate of Sanctions and Stalemate Sanctions
In the literature and discourse of sanctions, one of the most important aspects is the context of subjugating the target of the sanctions. Sanctions, as a tool for implementing government policies, also create a specific condition for their own removal. This special feature actually provides the groundwork for creating a structure aimed at reaching the point of fulfilling the demands of governments.
That benefit from their special position as governments and countries with the privilege to exert pressure on the opposing side. The consolidation of forces and the alliance of various countries to exert pressure on a single target means an effort to close the paths that the targeted country and structure can use to escape pressure and neutralize sanctions.
The new sanctions that the West, especially Europe, is designing and implementing following the public protests in Iran have a different meaning from nuclear sanctions and other similar examples. The type of sanctions imposed is a continuous repetition of security and political structures among the targets, and on the other hand, the will of some European countries to target the financial cycle of individuals and Iranian organizations has a special meaning.
Iran currently needs a diplomatic breathing space and is struggling to continue nuclear negotiations. Apart from this international diplomatic space, Iran also needs economic interaction space. Access to some of the most special technologies and services, as well as banking and financial interactions with special countries, is essential for Iran’s current interests and programs. Step by step, the scope of access for individuals and organizations to banking services, trade relations, and interactions and exchanges is becoming more limited.
These sanctions will create specific deadlocks for Iran’s political and military structures in interacting with certain countries, which will not easily accept the troubles of suffering the consequences of these sanctions.
In this regard, it should be mentioned that Turkey and Qatar are two countries that are unlikely to easily provide the past commercial and economic breathing space to Iranian individuals and organizations. The key point is also Turkey’s renewed political rapprochement with Israel. Apart from that, the two countries, China, will soon have to decide on the consequences of their companies’ commercial interactions and, more importantly, their security organizations and companies with Iran. Past transparent experience shows that the Chinese do not easily bear costs in this area.
Apart from the specific type of sanctions, the context of the formation of sanctions is also of great importance. The scope of the sanctions imposed now has a special extension in parallel, which is the effort of Western countries to assist Iranians in various fields, and particularly the effort of the United States to help facilitate Iranians’ access to the internet. This context of creating sanctions due to the suppression of internal protests and the violation of women’s rights has created a special situation. The meaning of these sanctions under these conditions is the absence of a criterion for lifting sanctions and returning the situation to the interaction structure before the protests. This special feature is a very serious matter.
In this framework, the interaction of the West with Iran now places the fulfillment of Western demands on the satisfaction of Iranian citizens. This is a reality that the Iranian regime must consider. In a situation where protest movements and dissatisfaction due to the violation of civil rights and the suppression of protesters continue, and the protesting structure lacks a leader and a spokesperson, the boundary for reaching the point of satisfaction of Iranian citizens and fulfilling their demands is not yet clear.
Reaching the point of a positive interaction between the West and Iran to understand this clear point requires a diplomatic space that must be much more open than the current interactions between Iran and the West. The stubbornness of the regime, the government, and various structures and their insistence on cultural and social policies are day by day distancing Iran from reaching that point of positive interaction.
Other reports and analyses have been exclusively written in Iran Gate, which you can read.
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