Russia, the greedy neighbor
Since the early 1990s, when five countries, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan declared independence from the Soviet Union, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been trying to establish close relations with these countries as a friend. Tehran had unique features to offer to these countries.
On one hand, Iran connected a common cultural area with the countries of Central Asia, and on the other hand, Iran’s geopolitical advantage as a route to access open waters could help these countries, which were trapped in dryness, escape geographical isolation. The countries of Central Asia, which had just emerged from nearly a century of communist rule under Moscow after the end of the Cold War, were seeking to open a new chapter in their foreign policy and international relations by diversifying their foreign relations.
Iran’s first step in developing relations with the Middle East was taken by the initiative of the late Iranian President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, with the signing of the South-North Transit Agreement and the connection of Middle East rail lines to Iran’s national railway. In 1996, with the opening of the last section of the Mashhad-Sarakhs railway line, Middle East rail lines were practically connected to Bandar Abbas and Bandar Imam Khomeini in Iran, completing the rail route connecting Middle Eastern countries to the Persian Gulf. That same year, an energy cooperation agreement was signed with Turkmenistan, and Iran began importing gas from Turkmenistan to supply gas to the northern part of the country and for gas swap in Turkey and the southern part of the country.
The transit connection and energy lines between Iran and the Middle East could have been the beginning of a broad and long-term cooperation between Iran and five Middle Eastern countries. However, in the past three decades, everything has not gone according to Tehran’s wishes. Some mistakes on Tehran’s part, the dominance of authoritarian regimes in Middle Eastern countries, and Russia’s unquestionable influence in these countries have prevented Iran from leveraging its advantages to develop relations with Middle Eastern countries.
Since the beginning of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moscow has made every effort to maintain its influence over the former Soviet republics by ensuring that no external power would dominate the regions previously under Soviet control. Despite the fluctuations in Russia’s power over the past three decades, its global influence has largely been unsuccessful in maintaining control over the Baltic Sea countries. However, it has consistently managed to maintain its dominance in the South Caucasus and Central Asia.
Moscow’s political influence in Central Asia has prevented the efforts of global powers such as China and the United States to penetrate the region, despite their considerable attempts. In the past decade, China has significantly expanded its influence in Central Asian countries through loans and large-scale infrastructure projects under its Belt and Road Initiative. Nevertheless, the political alignment of governments in this region continues to be under the influence of the Russian government.
Russia and China have been able to expand their cooperation in the region through the development of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s security mechanisms. Recently, Iran has also managed to become a full member of this organization. However, it is not clear whether Iran can have a significant impact on the region’s security structures with the presence of China and Russia. It seems more likely that Iran’s inclusion in this organization may lead to its influence by the security mechanisms devised by China and Russia.
Iran is also striving to join the Eurasian Economic Union, which includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Belarus, and Armenia, to benefit from the advantages of tariff-free trade with these five countries. Iran’s efforts in recent years to increase its influence in the Middle East region have been through joining the frameworks established by Russia, China, or Russia and China.
However, Iran’s conflict of interest with Russia has always prevented Iran from benefiting from these mechanisms. For example, while energy-producing countries in the Middle East are interested in using energy transmission lines from East to West to deliver energy to Europe, Russia is not willing to accept a competitor in selling energy to Europe and tries to sabotage in this regard. In the North-South corridor project, Russia also tries to bypass Iran’s existing connection with the Middle East and divert the corridor towards the South Caucasus.
Iran needs to pursue independent relations with Central Asian countries alongside cooperation with Russia and China to once again bring independent policymaking and bilateral and multilateral initiatives independent of Beijing and Moscow for cooperation with Central Asia, in order to overcome Russia’s sabotage and obstacles.
