Fabricated Statistics by Raisi’s Government Do Not Solve Any Problems
Fabricated statistics by Raisi’s government do not solve any problems. Over the past year, energy economy experts have consistently raised serious doubts about the reports from Raisi’s government regarding the volume of oil exports. Now, one of the oversight bodies of the Islamic Republic has published a report that, based on its findings, reveals that the government’s claims were baseless and that Iran’s oil exports are significantly lower than the official reports suggest.
Ebrahim Raisi has consistently claimed a significant increase in oil revenues in the new government over the past year by relying on reports whose authenticity is questioned by experts. The President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, relying on these controversial reports, claimed that he managed to circumvent oil sanctions and increase the revenue from Iran’s energy exports. However, a recently published report in Iran indicates that the statistics and figures claimed by Ebrahim Raisi are incorrect.
Audit Court Report
The Audit Court in Iran is an oversight body whose tasks include publishing reports on the implementation of the annual budget by the government. This body, which publishes six reports annually under the title of budget review reports, has recently provided interesting information to the media. At first glance, the Audit Court of Iran seems to have tried to validate the statistics presented by Raisi.
In the budget review report for the first four months of 2022, a fivefold increase in oil revenues in Raisi’s government compared to the previous year has been reported. However, by examining the details of this report, one can clearly see the incorrectness of the claims made by the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Doubts Surrounding a Misleading Report
1. The Government is Behind Schedule
Last Saturday, without mentioning the budget realization rate, the Audit Court claimed that oil revenues in the first four months of the current year increased about five times compared to the same period in 2021. According to the 2022 budget law, oil revenues in this year’s budget were projected to be 481 trillion tomans.
According to the Audit Court, it has now been revealed that the total oil revenues in the first four months of the year were 66 trillion tomans. Meanwhile, according to the budget law, oil revenues in the first four months of the current year should be at least 160 trillion tomans. In other words, the government has only achieved 42% of the projected oil revenues according to the budget law it presented to the parliament last fall.
2. Revenue Growth Due to Global Oil Price Surge
As previously mentioned, this report places special emphasis on the fivefold increase in oil revenues collected in the first four months of the year compared to the same period under Rouhani’s government. However, the report fails to consider the more than 70% increase in oil prices in global markets.
In reality, the increase in oil revenues is not directly related to the government’s ability to collect money from exports, but the surge in global oil prices has been overlooked in this report. Although it is still unclear which body was the source and reference for this report and whether the figures mentioned are based on the Audit Court’s estimates or if there is documentation for this report.
It should be noted that the selling price of each barrel of oil in this year’s budget was considered to be $70, but experts believe the average selling price of Iran’s oil has been over $80. Considering this point, it can be said that despite selling oil at a higher price than projected, the government still failed to achieve about 60% of the projected revenues.
3. A Currency Manipulation Trick
Another ambiguity not addressed in the Audit Court’s report is the base currency used to calculate the rial equivalent of this year’s oil revenues. Currently, the currency market observes six different prices for the dollar, each significantly different from the others. It is still unclear which of these six price groups was the basis for preparing this report.
On the other hand, the Audit Court did not mention how much the government’s dollar revenues in the first four months of the current year compare to the previous year. This is while the Audit Court’s 2021 report was calculated based on the government exchange rate. However, at the beginning of 2022, the thirteenth government made changes to the currency pricing process, completely changing the playing field. Therefore, it is unclear on which exchange rate the Audit Court’s report was based.
Some experts believe that the oil revenues mentioned in the 2022 budget review report were calculated considering the free or NIMA exchange rate. In this case, one can uncover the secret of the significant difference in oil revenues in the first four months of this year compared to last year. In fact, Raisi’s government, with the help of the country’s Audit Court, has tried to use currency manipulation to exaggerate the area of exports and oil revenue collection.
Lost Trust
Considering the points mentioned in this report, the impact of pressures on the Islamic Republic is entirely clear and undeniable. Raisi tries to use fabricated statistics to conceal the pressure on the body of Iran’s economy. However, the statistics and figures announced by the government and parliament in Iran indicate the worsening economic situation due to increased oil restrictions.
Therefore, many economic experts believe that contrary to the claims of the Iranian government, if the pressures increase, the economy of the Islamic Republic will certainly face collapse. Some even believe that the continuation and intensification of Trump’s maximum pressure could lead Iran’s economy to the fate of Venezuela. This group of economists believes that the inefficiency of Raisi’s government’s economic team and the lack of results from nuclear negotiations will lead to much more challenging months ahead for the people of Iran.
In fact, the government cannot even sell as much oil as in recent years after the United States exited the JCPOA and is trying to manipulate statistics to manage public perception. However, it seems that the people have lost their trust in the reports from the thirteenth government. Under such circumstances, it seems unlikely that the government will be able to satisfy public opinion as living conditions worsen.
These days, Iranians do not have faith in Raisi’s honesty and do not recognize him as an informed and intelligent person to trust his statements. Ultimately, it might be said that Raisi, by providing incorrect and manipulative statistics, has lost even the limited social capital he had. Worse still, oil revenues have not genuinely increased for the government to rely on them to control the situation.
Some other related articles from Iran Gate
- Fact-checking the Claim of Reduced Liquidity in Raisi’s Government
- Fact-checking the Claims of Government Supporters