What is Bibi and partners’ plan for the Middle East?
What is Bibi and partners’ plan for the Middle East?
The ceasefire in the Middle East remains, but everything is changing.
The United States government is pressing for the ceasefire to remain in both Lebanon and Gaza, while at the same time, Israel is acting to reshape the regional structure in its favor and taking advantage of Iran’s weakness. The Palestinian movement Hamas has confirmed that on Thursday, February 20, it will hand over the bodies of four Israeli citizens who were kidnapped on October 7, 2023, while next Saturday, six other hostages who are still alive will be released.
In return, Israel will release some Palestinian prisoners. It seems that the recent deadlock, which peaked with US President Donald Trump’s threat to create hell in Gaza, has now ended, paving the way for a transition to the second phase of an agreement reached in January.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar has confirmed that Tel Aviv has agreed to begin negotiations in this regard, while the US special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Whitkav, previously stated that the second phase of the agreement will definitely begin and Trump wants this to happen.
Meanwhile, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have completed their redeployment in southern Lebanon, which according to an agreement with Hezbollah, was supposed to be fully withdrawn by Tuesday, February 18.
However, Tel Aviv’s forces are stationed at five positions beyond the border, along with seven Israeli bases built on the Syrian side of the Golan, which seems to be a redefinition of borders between Israel and its two Arab neighbors. It’s no coincidence that all this is happening in an area that until a few months ago was directly or indirectly under the control of Iran-backed forces in the region.
US Pressures
The release of the six Israelis who are still alive was supposed to happen in the first phase of the agreement over 42 days, but instead, they will be released today, Saturday, in two separate deliveries.
This is an important step by Hamas, which, according to the Haaretz newspaper, may have received a significant offer from the mediators in return: on one hand, the entry of containers, tents, and machinery into Gaza to clear debris, and on the other hand, possibly promises about continuing negotiations, which the Americans are also hopeful for.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have taken a more cautious approach, as he is caught between growing public support for the continuation of the ceasefire and the pressure from extremists in his coalition to resume hostilities in Gaza as soon as possible.
In Lebanon, Israel has not clarified how long its forces will remain stationed at the five fortified bases north of the border, each intended to protect an Israeli community south of the border.
The Lebanese government and Hezbollah, who according to the agreement were supposed to retreat north of the Litani River, have condemned Israel’s refusal to fully withdraw, calling it a violation of the ceasefire agreement. The Israeli army also confirmed that it carried out a drone attack in Aita al-Shaab, killing a Hezbollah operative.
Currently, however, it seems that the United States supports Israel, as during his recent visit to Jerusalem, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on the Lebanese army to intervene against Hezbollah’s ceasefire violations south of the Litani before asking Israel to withdraw.
Is Israel expanding its control?
According to an agreement signed on November 27, the Lebanese army was supposed to be deployed in the south of the country along with UN peacekeeping forces, while the Israeli army and Hezbollah were to withdraw from their positions and dismantle any military infrastructure within 60 days, later extended to February 18.
This week, particularly after Lebanese authorities prevented some Iranian planes from landing in Beirut, there were strong protests from the Lebanese people, including many Hezbollah supporters. The Israeli army has announced that Hezbollah and the Quds Forces, a special unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are using civilian flights to secretly transfer funds intended to resupply weapons and rebuild Hezbollah’s military capabilities in Lebanon, which have been severely damaged in months of military conflict with the Israeli government.
In other words, the Beirut government has accepted Israel’s demands, while Israel has announced that it has strengthened its military positions in Syria, effectively creating a new advanced defensive line against the new Islamist rulers of this country.
Iran has never been this weak.
Satellite images analyzed by The Washington Post, Al Jazeera, and others show that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have established at least seven new bases on the Syrian side of the border, from Mount Hermon to Tel Kedna near the border triangle between Israel, Syria, and Jordan.
The Israeli government, which does not trust the post-Assad Syrian government led by the well-known jihadist leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, has occupied the buffer zone separating it from the Syrian border in the Golan Heights and then advanced into the southwestern provinces of Syria.
According to sources who spoke to the Jerusalem Post, the Trump administration welcomes the possibility of maintaining a new and larger buffer zone in Syria in the long term by Israel, as the US president understands Israel’s concerns that the new Syrian regime might be a wolf in sheep’s clothing.
Whether in Syria or Lebanon, Israel is acting and knows it has support, not only due to US backing but also because of the unprecedented situation Iran and its network of militia forces face in the region in general and especially in the two neighboring countries.
It is enough to note that this week, for the first time in over 20 years, the Lebanese government has removed the phrase ‘armed resistance,’ which pertains to Hezbollah, from its statement on executive priorities. This signifies a significant change not only in terms of rhetoric but also regarding deep disagreements over the role of Hezbollah and Iran in Lebanon’s future.
The news of Israel’s refusal to withdraw from southern Lebanon could breathe new life into Hezbollah and Tehran’s rhetoric of resistance, allowing Hezbollah to solidify its refusal to disarm. However, Hezbollah is militarily weakened, and its leadership is fragile. After Assad’s fall, Iran has struggled to find ways to supply its Lebanese ally, and Israel’s strengthened presence in the Middle East only worsens the situation for Iran’s leadership. However, for Tehran, Israel’s occupation of new territories in Syria and Lebanon is a minor issue.
Since Trump’s deployment, the issue of Iran’s nuclear program has resurfaced in the headlines, and amid rumors of new sanctions, the possibility of negotiations and preemptive strikes, it seems even the Iranian administration is looking at the West with increasing distrust. Therefore, Iran is searching for a new regional strategy to rebuild its deterrence and is fully aware that while Israel operates unimpeded in the Levant and is supported by Washington, all eyes are on Tehran, and its space for shadow operations is shrinking.