Are Israel and Hezbollah on the brink of an all-out war?
Are Israel and Hezbollah on the brink of an all-out war?
Since October, Western officials have been tirelessly trying to prevent a Gaza war outbreak and have focused on the possibility of a full-scale conflict between Israel and the Iran-aligned Hezbollah movement in Lebanon.
Despite extensive efforts and serious warnings, the risk of escalation in the region is increasing by the hour, prompting US President’s special envoy Amos Hochstein during his stops in Jerusalem and Beirut to emphasize the danger of a larger war breaking out.
A full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah would be devastating for all parties involved, with its tremors affecting the entire region and beyond.
This war would jeopardize the fragile normalization process of relations, carefully crafted under US leadership to improve Israel’s ties with its Arab neighbors.
Furthermore, an all-out war would likely draw Iran into a more extensive and overt involvement compared to the bloody and inconclusive wars between Israel and Hezbollah in 1996 and 2006.
This message was sent by Iran in April when it came out of its regional proxies and directly attacked Israel from its own territory, breaking a long-standing red line.
But with increasing internal pressures in Israel to confront Hezbollah, will Israeli leaders continue to heed Washington’s calls for restraint?
Since Israel’s retaliatory military campaign in Gaza eight months ago, Hezbollah and Israeli forces have been exchanging fire along the border.
However, they have kept these daily exchanges within a lower threshold than full-scale war, within the framework that Lebanese politicians call the rules of the game – informal guidelines created after 2006 to reduce the risk of escalation and tension by both sides.
But as Hochenstein pointed out, the past 19 days have seen a fundamental shift with a significant escalation by Hezbollah and the stretching of the rules of the game to new levels.
He emphasized the immediate need for tension reduction and highlighted that the exchange of fire along the Blue Line, the border line between Israel and Lebanon, has gone on excessively.
Last week, Hezbollah fired hundreds of missiles and drones at Israeli military sites after one of its senior commanders, Talib Abdullah, was targeted and killed by Israeli forces.
The group used drones carrying explosive materials alongside missile attacks and anti-tank missiles. Also, in May, for the first time, a drone equipped with a missile was sent towards Israel.
Overall, Hezbollah claims to have carried out over 2,000 attacks on Israel since October and has stated with Iran’s encouragement that hostilities will only end when an agreement is reached in Gaza, a possibility that seems further away with each passing day.
Adding to the concerns, Hezbollah this week escalated its threats and released nearly 10 minutes of footage of Haifa port and other sensitive military locations in northern Israel, including Iron Dome and David’s Sling air defense systems.
The group stated that this footage was recorded by an identified drone that was able to return to Lebanon without interference. On the other hand, Israel has been warning for months that it intends to push Hezbollah, backed by Iran, further from the Lebanese border and towards the Litani River, either through diplomacy or war.
In recent days, the tone of Israeli authorities has noticeably become sharper. Israeli Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz warned Hezbollah that in case of a full-scale war, it will be completely destroyed. Israel is very close to deciding to change the rules of the game against Hezbollah and Lebanon. On Tuesday, Israeli government spokesman David Menachem emphasized that Israel will ensure the safe and secure return of Israelis to their homes in northern Israel. Currently, most of them are staying in Tel Aviv hotels at the government’s expense.
Meanwhile, the Israeli army announced that IDF commanders have approved their operational plans to attack the northern border of Israel, including decisions to expedite the preparation of forces on the ground. The only thing needed now is a green light from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Israel’s escalation on Thursday was accompanied by threats from Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who warned that if a full-scale war breaks out, nowhere in Israel will be safe.
He emphasized that the battlefield will expand beyond Syria and will also encompass Cyprus if Israel is allowed to use the airport and facilities on the island for logistics.
Nasrallah issued a chilling warning that the situation in the Mediterranean will completely change, and Hezbollah will fight without considering rules and restrictions.
While these threats and counter-threats are somewhat aimed at deterring the other party from excessive aggression, they also carry the risk of making the retreat of either side more difficult.
The Israelis are currently not ready for reconciliation, and senior commanders, despite increasing criticism of Netanyahu for what seems to be a perpetual war in Gaza, accusing him of prolonging it for political reasons, are eager to confront Hezbollah.
In December, Netanyahu resisted pressure from army commanders and Defense Minister Ya’alon to order an attack on Hezbollah. But now he is under pressure from bereaved families and northern politicians who question why he treats them differently compared to southern communities in Israel.
They say if a part of the logic of war with Hamas guarantees the permanent security of the southern kibbutzim of Israel, eighty thousand displaced northerners near the Lebanon border should also have the same protection.
Moreover, most Israelis believe that ultimately large-scale attacks must be carried out.
According to a survey by the Jewish People Policy Institute, 36% of respondents have supported an immediate attack on Lebanon, and another 26% have said that this attack should take place after the end of operations in Gaza.
Right-wing and extremist religious factions in Netanyahu’s controversial coalition also advocate for a major military response. For example, both the National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich advise the Israeli Prime Minister not to yield to US pressure.
Their argument seems to be that an attack on Lebanon would be another war to defend Israel and protect it from its enemies.
However, many of these extremist right-wingers, including Ben Gvir’s wife Ayala, see the war with Hezbollah as an opportunity to occupy southern Lebanon, which they consider part of the divine promised land that should be transformed into Israeli territory.
