Putin’s Alliance with the East against the West
Russian President Vladimir Putin unveiled a new agreement during his visit to Pyongyang on June 18 and 19, 2024, meeting with Kim Jong Un, for the formation of a comprehensive strategic partnership between North Korea and Russia. The two countries committed to providing immediate military assistance to each other in case of war. This agreement is the strongest bond between Moscow and Pyongyang since the end of the Cold War.
Putin’s visit to North Korea demonstrates his efforts to gather old allies of the Soviet Union and sends a strong signal in the face of the United States and its allies, indicating that the Russian leader is capable of challenging the interests of the United States and the West.
This meeting is a victory for Kim Jong Un, as it not only elevates North Korea’s position among countries opposing the international order led by the United States but also helps strengthen his domestic legitimacy.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken commented on this visit, stating that Putin’s actions show that Russia is seeking to expand and strengthen its relationships with countries that can support and continue the aggressive actions initiated against Ukraine in times of despair in its relations.
It seems that Russia wants to create a conflict in East Asia so that by diverting attention to the east, it can emerge victorious in the war it has initiated in western Ukraine.
North Korea has leveraged the conflict in Ukraine to secure geopolitical interests with Russia and in a bold alliance with Moscow, it defines security threats for Northeast Asia and the world. Russia has been standing alongside North Korea in the United Nations Security Council for a long time, protecting Pyongyang from strong international sanctions.
Earlier this year, Moscow vetoed the annual resolution extending the mandate of the panel of experts monitoring the enforcement of long-term UN sanctions against North Korea due to the country’s nuclear and missile programs.
Bilateral relations between Russia and North Korea had weakened since the collapse of the Soviet Union, but the start of the war in Ukraine has opened a new chapter for these relations.
North Korea’s support for Putin in the invasion of Ukraine, along with sending weapons to Russia and Kim’s visit to Russia in September 2023, has led to significant progress in the relations between the two countries.
Putin and Kim see the recent Swiss peace conference on June 15 and 16 as an opportunity to pressure Western Europe and Ukraine’s supporters in the United States.
The warming of relations between Moscow and Pyongyang has led to the failure of international efforts to curb North Korea’s nuclear and missile ambitions.
The transfer of container shipments of ammunition from North Korea to Russia, contrary to US interests, enables Russian military to destroy critical infrastructure in Ukraine.
They hope to coordinate their capabilities to create a force against US and Western allies’ efforts in supporting Ukraine’s resistance against Russia’s war.
What Russia provides to North Korea in exchange for these armaments may raise more concerns for US policymakers. During Kim’s visit to the Vostochny Cosmodrome in eastern Russia last year, Putin promised to help enhance North Korea’s satellite capabilities.
Pyongyang hopes that in the recent agreement with Moscow, it can ensure the use of ballistic missile technology in satellite launches. This is a concern for the United States, Japan, and South Korea as North Korea pursues a missile saturation strategy to overcome anti-ballistic missile systems in the region. Pyongyang leverages this strategy as a leverage in negotiations with regional countries.
Russia, with the world’s largest nuclear arsenal and one of the most sophisticated submarine programs, possesses a wide range of technologies that could be attractive to North Korea.
Despite years of efforts by Washington and the United Nations for denuclearization, Pyongyang has conducted six nuclear tests and developed intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States.
The growing relations between Russia and North Korea pose a strategic threat to the United States’ interests in Europe, the Indian Ocean, and the Pacific Ocean. The strategy of Pyongyang and Moscow is to coordinate their interests in the Korean Peninsula to prevent the deployment of US assets in Ukraine, the Taiwan Strait, and other areas.
Any increase in North Korea’s military capability by Russia poses a danger to the United States, Japan, South Korea, and US forces stationed in East Asia. The US will use the revival of the North Korea-Russia alliance as an excuse to enhance security cooperation to counter Putin and Kim Jong-un’s efforts to undermine the existing international order.
The official military alliance between Russia and North Korea could complicate Western military plans to respond to large-scale attacks or invasions by North Korea and potentially encourage Pyongyang to engage in more provocative behavior.
Given China’s decision to strengthen strategic ties with Russia, a new axis with nuclear-armed partners may hinder and complicate US military and security planning in the Asia-Pacific region, making it more valuable.
Although China engages with Russia without restrictions and remains a key supporter of North Korea, it still maintains a distance from both, who are isolated by US and Western sanctions.
Putin’s visit to North Korea and having another powerful friend for Kim reduces Pyongyang’s reliance on Beijing.
Increasing cooperation with Moscow shows that Pyongyang has other options, and China cannot tolerate this development of collaboration.
Xi Jinping is carefully trying to introduce China as a global player.
Therefore, it does not welcome advancements in North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs supported by Russian technology, and also does not want to see South Korea’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons in response to North Korea’s increasing threat.
Stability in the Korean Peninsula is a key foreign policy goal for China, and it is cautious about the possibility of unpredictable flare-ups due to Russia’s influence through Pyongyang.
Beijing is concerned that Washington responded to its recent strategic agreement by strengthening its security ties with regional allies South Korea and Japan and increasing the sense of threat from US military aggression in Asia-Pacific.
The North Korea-Russia-China triangle could further intensify another aspect of the start of a new Cold War in East Asia.
It should be noted that China, suffering from US pressure, may not completely see the strategic proximity of Moscow and Pyongyang as negative, as it could divert the US strategic focus away from China.
It should also be considered that a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with North Korea for Russia, increasingly dependent on China as its main energy export market and source of advanced technologies in the face of Western sanctions, could be challenging. When close relations with North Korea do not appeal to China’s taste, the darkening of relations with China potentially complicates China and Russia’s efforts to undermine Western unity.
What is certain is that Putin has supported Xi Jinping’s position on Taiwan and Xi has supported Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine against Moscow’s attempts to counter foreign interference in Russia’s internal affairs.
Both leaders have also prevented efforts to impose additional sanctions on North Korea by the United Nations Security Council.
This trilateral alliance signifies growing ties between governments that, in a geopolitical bloc, rewrite the international order against the United States and the West.
In general, contemporary events and converging interests have enabled Russia to align with North Korea in global policies.
As a result of this alignment, the Russian leader, who prioritized victory in Ukraine in Russia’s foreign policy, utilizes a strategy of leveraging strategic agreements with its ally in East Asia to ensure support in the battlefield against its European neighbor.
