Aliyev is plotting a war
Ilham Aliyev, the President of Azerbaijan, in his latest speech at the first session of the seventh National Assembly of the country, made several harsh statements against Armenia, revealing his true intentions.
He is not an advocate for peace but rather aims to prepare for the next round of military actions in southern Armenia. His remarks about Armenia and international policy only confirm that Aliyev and his regime, instead of seeking peaceful solutions, are increasing military power, engaging in aggressive rhetoric, and destabilizing the region.
Threat and accusation of malevolence in Armenia or provocation from Azerbaijan
Aliyev openly accuses Armenia of revanchism or attempting to take revenge, arguing that not only the opposition forces but also the Armenian government itself desires to avenge the results of the Second Karabakh War.
These claims are made while the Armenian government has repeatedly called for peace with Baku, voluntarily returning villages in the Tavush region to Baku, which resulted in prolonged street protests and unrest in Armenia. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, during his presence at the United Nations in New York, also called for taking advantage of regional cooperation opportunities instead of conflict and even proposed the idea of buying gas from Baku last week.
However, this peaceful approach of the Armenian government seems to have led to Aliyev’s misinterpretation and miscalculation, perceiving the Armenian government as weak due to these stances, prompting him to resort to threats and bravado once more to threaten the stability of the South Caucasus at the behest of the UK, Israel, and Turkey. Especially since, like in 2020, the vacuum created by the U.S. presidential elections, the Ukraine war, and repeated Zionist attacks on Palestine and Lebanon have created the illusion for him that perhaps another historical opportunity has arisen to encroach on southern Armenia and create a fake Zangezur corridor with the aim of establishing an imagined interconnected Turkic world and then a Turkish NATO, following the orders of the head of the British intelligence agency MI6 during a visit to Baku. The MI6 chief, in his visit to Baku, supported intensifying intelligence and security cooperation among Caucasus and Central Asian countries in a style similar to the Five Eyes alliance among five Anglo-Saxon countries.
Aliyev claims that Armenia’s policy presents a completely opposite picture of what has been declared. However, behind these words lies Aliyev’s desire to justify implementing his new militaristic plans and preparing for a new aggression. By accusing Armenia of readiness for provocations, he preemptively creates an excuse for potential military actions.
Strengthening the Baku army prepares itself for a new round of aggression
Aliyev himself speaks of a significant increase in Baku’s military power after the Second Karabakh War, creating new formations in the armed forces, increasing the number of special forces and commandos, and strengthening the Baku army with modern equipment. These measures are not just for protecting Baku’s borders but clearly preparing for a new war. Instead of talking about peaceful negotiations and diplomatic solutions to conflicts, Aliyev boasts of his hollow military power and argues that dialogue with us in the language of extortion and ultimatum will be impossible.
It is a historical irony that Baku, which is constantly threatening Armenia, claims to want dialogue and avoidance of conflict, accusing this country of extortion, revenge, and warmongering. Aliyev, who has destabilized the region by purchasing massive amounts of weapons from dozens of countries over the past two decades and has been the initiator of all regional conflicts, cannot tolerate even a small purchase of weapons by Armenia from India and France to supposedly have fewer problems for his next military adventures. In reality, this means that Baku refuses dialogue and chooses the path of force.
Provocation and creating fear of Western influence
Aliyev also accused the West in his speech of using Armenia as a tool against Baku. It seems these accusations are part of a propaganda campaign to discredit any international community efforts to intervene in the Caucasus conflict and support achieving a peaceful solution. Aliyev claims that Western countries are trying to increase tensions in the region by providing Armenia with weapons, but the real aim of these statements is to divert public attention from Aliyev’s aggressive plans and Baku’s continued militarization under the pretext of an external threat.
With this kind of propaganda, Baku tries to ensure that Armenia is alone in negotiations with this country so that it can exert maximum pressure on it and extort from Yerevan as much as possible. In fact, Baku, with this rhetoric, seeks to eliminate all negotiation frameworks involving regional and extra-regional mediators, an issue that Iran should pay attention to so that Baku’s and its supporters’ illusions about creating a Turani NATO corridor in southern Armenia are stopped.
The irony of the matter is that Baku, despite claiming independence from the West, is fully compliant with the U.S. and the UK, carefully receiving and implementing these countries’ policies to reduce Russia’s and Iran’s influence in the Caucasus. Extensive cooperation with NATO, repeated military exercises with other countries, British and American dominance over this country’s economy, and extensive dealings of the Aliyev family and his wife with the UK, part of which was revealed in the Panama Papers, and the recent suspicious visit of the MI6 chief to Baku, indicate bitter realities in this regard.
The real intention is not peace but war
Analyzing Aliyev’s statements reveals that his goal is not the peaceful resolution of the Caucasus conflict, but rather preparing Baku for a new round of aggression. He strengthens his aggressive army under the slogan of defending Baku, portrays Armenia as an aggressive enemy both inside and outside the country, and creates an excuse for future provocations. The war in Karabakh is not over in his mind, and for Aliyev, peace is not a priority.
The simple conclusion is that Ilham Aliyev is preparing not for peace but for war to fulfill the orders of his British, Zionist, and Turkish masters to strangle Iran geopolitically, diminish the North-South Corridor of Iran, and establish NATO, Zionists, Wahhabis, and Takfiris in broader areas along the border with Iran. However, his era of reckless actions has passed, and he will not have the opportunity for such actions. The conditions in Iran and the world are completely different from 2020, and Iran will not hesitate even for a moment to defend its interests in the Caucasus against any delusional aggressor.