CIA analysis of China’s military action against Taiwan

Parisa Pasandepour
5 Min Read
CIA analysis of China's military action against Taiwan

CIA analysis of China’s military action against Taiwan

CIA predicts China’s possible attack on Taiwan by 2027

According to Iran Gate, CIA’s analysis of China’s military action against Taiwan reveals that Xi Jinping has put the army on high alert. However, after witnessing Russia’s difficulties in Ukraine, they are unsure if they can complete the operation. This was announced by CIA director William Burns in an interview with CBS. Xi Jinping, the top leader of China, has ordered his army to be ready for an attack on Taiwan by 2027, but the situation in Ukraine has created doubts about China’s ability to carry out this military operation and has made Xi Jinping hesitant.

Burns said that Vladimir Putin’s retreat in the Ukraine war may have influenced China’s stance. He added, ‘I think they look at Putin’s experience in Ukraine and that has probably reinforced some of their doubts.’ Some Western officials have warned that if Russia wins the war in Ukraine, it could be encouraging for China to attack Taiwan.

Michael McCaul, a Republican representative in the United States Congress, said on Monday that he is scheduled to meet with Putin in Moscow next week. The exact timing of this meeting has not been confirmed by Moscow or Beijing. McCaul, who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee, referred to reports that suggest China’s intention to send stealth aircraft to Russia.

McCaul stated that it is concerning to him that Xi and Putin are scheduled to meet next week to discuss their unholy alliance and the sending of weapons for the war in Ukraine, as today it may be Ukraine and tomorrow it could be Taiwan.

Furthermore, in the past month, Elly Ratner, the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, claimed that the Pentagon believes China is planning to attack Taiwan by the end of the decade, but the United States can prevent it.

This Pentagon official claimed, ‘I think they intend to attack Taiwan, but I firmly believe that China will not launch a major attack on Taiwan until the end of this decade.’

Taiwan and China separated from each other in 1949 after a civil war that resulted in the Communist Party gaining control of mainland China. Beijing believes that the island of Taiwan, with a population of 24 million, is part of China but has been separate from the mainland since 1949.

China has always considered Taiwan as part of its territory and demands that all countries in the world respect the unity and territorial integrity of China. Although the United States does not officially recognize Taiwan’s independence, it has stated that it would support Taiwan if China were to take military action against it.

This self-governing island remains unrecognized by the United Nations or most countries. In 1979, President Jimmy Carter officially recognized the Beijing government and severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

However, William Burns, the head of one of the most powerful intelligence agencies, emphasized that it has not been definitively stated that China will attack Taiwan in 2027 or any other year. Our assessment to date is that Beijing’s leaders and military chiefs are not confident in their ability to successfully complete this mission.

In this interview, which aired on Monday, February 26th, Bronze stated that the support of the United States and European allies for Ukraine, following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of the country, can now potentially serve as a deterrent to Chinese authorities. Despite this, the CIA chief emphasized that the West must take Xi Jinping’s threat to annex Taiwan very seriously. He further added that the occurrence of this military action is highly probable and stressed that the risk of a possible attack on Taiwan in the future could increase.

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Master's Degree in International Relations from the Faculty of Diplomatic Sciences and International Relations, Genoa, Italy.