Europe is the only optimist about the revival of the JCPOA
Europe is the only optimist about the revival of the JCPOA. A day after the Resalat newspaper warned the government not to sign the agreement until the safeguard issues are resolved, Ebrahim Raisi also announced in a press conference that the agreement must be accompanied by the resolution of safeguard issues and that they will not relent on neutralizing and lifting sanctions.
On the other hand, the Kayhan newspaper is warning these days that Iran should abandon the negotiations. Negative signals from Iran come at a time when the comings and goings between Israel and the United States, along with threats from this country about not adhering to a potential agreement between Iran and America, are increasing.
An Israeli official has announced that the head of Israel’s intelligence agency, Mossad, will travel to the United States in the coming days to hold talks with American officials about the revival of the JCPOA. David Barnea is set to participate in closed-door congressional sessions regarding the nuclear agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid has also said, ‘We will fight the nuclear agreement with all our might. Signing a nuclear agreement with Iran is not binding for Israel.’
We will do everything in our power to support our security. According to the Jerusalem Post, Israel intends to continue its secret intelligence agency actions to neutralize Iran’s nuclear program and strengthen its military for an attack on Iran, regardless of the outcome of the negotiations. The newspaper mentioned Tel Aviv’s decision to focus its efforts on delaying or weakening the lifting of sanctions and wrote that the goal is to convince parties to reduce Iran’s economic benefits.
According to this publication, Israel intends to continue working on what it calls regional security architecture. Meanwhile, it seems that the only optimists about the revival of the agreement are the Europeans, to the extent that the EU’s foreign policy chief has said, ‘We have reached a decisive moment in the nuclear negotiations, and I am optimistic in this regard.’
The United States has rejected Iran’s safeguard request.
Iran’s insistence on closing safeguard issues along with the agreement comes as Reuters reported, citing informed sources, about the resolution of safeguard issues. According to an unnamed American official, Iran initially wanted a commitment that the agency would conclude its safeguard investigations by a certain date, which, according to this American official, the U.S. and its partners rejected.
The Reuters report adds that this American official says Iran later stated that if the safeguard issues are not resolved by the time the agreement is resumed, it reserves the right not to take the necessary actions to limit its nuclear program as scheduled.
Four options facing Iran
This American official claims that if Tehran does not cooperate with the agency by the time the agreement is resumed, Iranian officials will face a choice: either delay or even forgo the lifting of sanctions or implement the agreement while investigations into the raised issues are ongoing. Reuters further writes that it seems we are facing four possible outcomes. In the first, Iran will address the agency’s concerns in time, and the 2015 nuclear agreement will be revived.
In the second, Tehran will not satisfy the agency’s concerns and will refrain from taking nuclear actions to finalize the agreement, and Washington will also refrain from lifting sanctions specified in the final stage of the proposed agreement, although the nuclear restrictions and lifting of sanctions specified in the preliminary stages of the proposed agreement will occur.
According to this report, in the third scenario, Tehran might implement the agreement despite ongoing agency investigations, a policy change that might be difficult for Iranian officials to digest or gain acceptance for domestically. The fourth possibility could be that political pressures cause the agency to conclude its investigations in Iran despite being unsatisfied with Iran’s responses, although American officials say they will not pressure this institution.
Details of the agreement draft from Israel’s perspective
In the media and news silence of the nuclear team regarding the details of the draft and agreed-upon items so far, Israeli media have become the source of news. Jonathan Lis in Haaretz, an Israeli publication, has written that the draft agreement for the revival of the JCPOA specifies a 165-day timeframe from the date of signing until the full implementation of the agreement. According to the understandings presented in the EU’s proposed draft, this agreement will be completed after four designed stages.
The first stage, called day zero, is the day of signing the agreement. Before the day of signing the agreement, the parties are supposed to finalize the release of prisoners from Iran in exchange for blocked funds and an initial reduction of sanctions.
Meanwhile, Iran will be required to stop all violations of the agreement but can retain the uranium reserves it has accumulated so far. Critics of the agreement insist that the government should bring the agreement to Congress for approval in the second stage.
In fact, a maximum of five days after the signing date, the agreement will be placed on Congress’s table, and from that moment, members of Congress will have 30 days to study and review the agreement, and during this period, there will be no possibility for reducing sanctions that require a resolution.
According to this newspaper, one of the issues that could make the approval of the agreement difficult for Biden is the concern that Russia might exploit its relationship with Iran and turn it into a haven to circumvent sanctions. In the third stage, 60 days after the agreement’s approval in Congress, the U.S. State Department representative will inform the United Nations Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency of the decision to return to the JCPOA.
In the fourth stage, which is another 60 days later, the time for full implementation of the agreement arrives. Americans and Iranians will issue a joint statement affirming their commitment to this process, and the United States will lift other imposed sanctions. After 165 days from the signing of the agreement, the final stage is also implemented. The United States officially returns to the agreement, lifts the remaining sanctions, and allows trade with Iran. On this occasion, Iran will dismantle its excess enrichment infrastructure.