Key Moments for Europe in Italy
Key moments for Europe in Italy: Nationwide elections in Italy, one of the key countries of the European Union, will be held on September 25. These elections, following the collapse of Mario Draghi’s government, will see the rise of right-wing forces in the country and are the second major election of the turbulent 2022 election season globally, after the victory of right-wing forces in Sweden. Italy’s special role and influence in the European Union, which is beyond the impact of a country like Sweden, is of great importance to the key members of this union, namely Germany and France.
A New Electoral Structure
This time, Italy’s elections will be held based on the new structure of the country’s legislative chambers. The number of representatives in the lower and upper houses has been halved, and the threshold for forming a government has also been reduced. As a result, forming a government after the elections will be much easier for parties that manage to gain a high number of votes, and the usual Italian electoral gaps and tensions are unlikely to occur with the same intensity and persistence as in previous years.
However, in both details and generalities, Italy’s elections remain a unique example, with intricacies that will create many puzzles about the election process. For instance, a preferential system is in place for choosing candidates in many areas, while other constituencies will have a single-option vote. This new duality is just the beginning of electoral complexity, as candidates can run in multiple constituencies simultaneously. This new and complex situation has, as always, made Italian politics unique in Europe and the world.
With the reduction in the number of representatives in the two houses, many politicians in these chambers will lose their positions, and the battles within parties to determine candidates have been extremely serious due to the limited number of seats and naturally limited lists.
Seemingly Moderate Right-Wing
Italy has always lived in the shadow of fascism from the 1920s to the 1950s. Now, following recent political developments, the leftists and moderates in Italy have lost the ability to form a united structure to achieve government formation.
Recent Italian governments, during periods of severe economic pressure and especially during the Corona era, have engaged in widespread spending. Italy’s government debt relative to its GDP is very high. On the other hand, there has been a continuous trend of negative portrayals about immigrants and Italy’s cultural situation, with extremists succeeding in making a significant part of the society pessimistic. Now, a coalition that considers itself center-right has formed with the alliance of Silvio Berlusconi, Matteo Salvini, and Giorgia Meloni, with Meloni leading this coalition in the upcoming elections.
This coalition, which has collectively secured the necessary votes to form a government in all polls, poses a serious challenge to Italy’s political future and also to the policies of the European Union.
Meloni, who has strong ties with conservatives and extremists in various countries, especially the United States, is the leader of the Brothers of Italy party, which is the country’s old fascist party. However, Meloni’s recent approach and particularly this year’s campaign have been successful in moderating the image of the party and Meloni herself. In her new discourse, she has practically moderated anti-European Union statements and does not speak of leaving the European Union. This coalition now accuses the left of extremism and violence and highlights the left’s radicalism.
The significant achievement of this coalition is the coalition itself. By forming this convergence, they promise certainty and assurance after the elections, with no more conflicts between parties to form a coalition government if the Italian people vote for this center-right coalition. On the other hand, Italian politicians in recent weeks, in interviews and statements, have dismissed the serious warnings of the left about the re-emergence of fascism and assured the public that there is no concern about the return of fascists.
The various layers of the policies advocated by the right-wing coalition indicate their inclination towards conservative policies regarding important cultural and social issues, and there is no doubt that topics like the abortion debate, which is serious in the United States, will also be pursued in their policies. This is something that has only been made possible through the globalization of right-wing extremists’ connections.
Giorgia Meloni has shown seriousness in moderating her positions during her debate with opponents and has supported the general policies of the European Union that Mario Draghi, the popular and non-partisan Italian politician, pursued in his government. She has portrayed herself as a supporter of aid to Ukraine and has removed the original far-right stance, which is a strategic alliance with Putin, from her campaign discourse. However, there is no doubt that the strong relationship between the coalition of Italy’s three extremist forces and Russia is serious.
Russia’s Direct Role in Italy’s Elections
The far-right’s connections with Russia’s security and political structure are longstanding. Russia has established and maintained these connections with the majority of extremist parties and groups worldwide. However, the story of direct Russian influence in the ongoing Italian elections is different.
Russia played a key role in the collapse of Mario Draghi’s government. Draghi, a renowned European figure and respected economist globally, led a coalition government whose credibility was owed to Draghi’s reputation as a successful president of the European Central Bank in the previous decade and also to policies based on maximum support for the people during the Corona crisis. Multiple economic problems and livelihood crises, among other issues, provided the grounds for the weakening of Draghi’s government. Nonetheless, it was expected that the continuation of this government would be possible.
On two occasions, the Russian embassy in Italy held meetings with Matteo Salvini’s circle on one side and Silvio Berlusconi on the other, encouraging them to leave the coalition government and dismantle it.
News about these meetings and Russian influence gradually faded in the campaign process, with denials from the center-right coalition, until the news of an official United States document about Putin’s $300 million investment for interference in elections worldwide was released. This news sparked a new wave of accusations against both the far-left and far-right. Giuseppe Conte, the leftist leader who clearly holds a position different from the European Union regarding Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and knows that, like many far-left figures, he is suspected of siding with Putin, has denied receiving help from Putin.
Berlusconi’s story is even stranger. He and his party have an official cooperation agreement with Putin’s main Russian party, and their connections are still serious. In the context of the news about Putin’s investment for electoral interference worldwide, Berlusconi is under intense scrutiny.
In the final days of the 2022 Italian election campaign, it is unlikely that the center-right coalition, which sells moderation to voters by adjusting its positions, will fail in the electoral battle. The outlook for European politics, with the second major victory of far-right forces on this continent, is more complex than ever.