Recent Polls on the US Elections
With the conclusion of the Democratic convention in Chicago and Robert Kennedy stepping aside, effectively suspending his campaign in key states in favor of Trump, an important phase of electoral activities for both parties in the US has ended, and all eyes are on the start of the final round of the electoral battle.
This final round traditionally begins with Labor Day in this country, which is in early September, and the first and perhaps only debate between the two rivals on September 10 will be decisive. Developments in the last two weeks of August made the polls conducted in the last days of this month very intriguing, and the results of these polls have arrived.
Overall, experts were not expecting a surprising change, and the current perception of electoral interactions is the same as what has been seen before.
The political polarization in the US has become so entrenched that a significant decrease in votes for one of the two rivals over a two to three-month period is very difficult.
What matters is the maximum mobilization of one’s own voter base, attracting undecided voters, and garnering the votes of those who usually do not participate in elections.
Working on the last voter base is one of the areas where Trump’s campaign managers in 2020 demonstrated their high capability. Despite his lack of widespread popularity, by visiting sparsely populated areas and finding citizens uninterested in politics and those who never considered participating in elections, they attracted a high number of votes for Trump. Recent polls conducted in the last days of August indicate Harris’s lead and, in fact, the improvement of her campaign’s position among her own voter base. The situation for Democrats among independents has also significantly improved.
Interestingly, in some polls, two specific voter bases, which are a serious concern for Democrats, have shown better-than-expected support for Harris: Latino voters and voters without higher education.
Trump still has a better standing among the second group, but Harris is much more accepted than Biden among them. One of the notable polls was the Wall Street Journal survey, which indicated Harris’s two percent lead, and for the first time in this election cycle’s polls by this institution, Trump has fallen behind. Harris’s position in the Suffolk University poll has also greatly improved, with a 48 to 43 percent lead.
The change in the election landscape with Harris entering the race and the trend of changing public opinion in recent weeks has been well reflected in the Ipsos poll.
This poll, conducted for Reuters, indicates a significant improvement in Harris’s position, and the impact of candidates other than the two main rivals has been minimized. However, this impact can ultimately be decisive in key states with a very narrow margin between Trump and Harris. Polls in key states also indicate a close race and improvement in Harris’s position.
In the Morning Consult poll conducted for Bloomberg, Harris is ahead of Trump in all key states except Arizona, and the competition remains sensitive and close in this poll. A specific point in this poll is the improved situation for Democrats.
The recent poll conducted by Fox News also indicates Harris’s lead in three out of four important southern states known as the Sun Belt.
Interestingly, in this poll as well, Harris is ahead of Trump in Nevada and Georgia. The Harris campaign must establish itself in Nevada at all costs and alleviate concerns about this state.
Achieving this goal requires overcoming a long-standing crisis, which is nothing other than weakening the Democratic Party’s position among Latinos.
This racial group encompasses a wide range of ethnic and national origins and age groups, and the third and fourth generations of immigrants have minimal commonalities with first and second-generation immigrants. Cuban Latinos differ from Puerto Rican Latinos, and Mexican Latinos have their own unique behavior in each region of the US.
This racial group is the Democratic Party’s big electoral puzzle.
In any case, hot days await the US elections.
The Fox News poll results have shown that other Republican candidates in Senate and gubernatorial races are in a much worse position compared to the level of support for Trump.
This is an important point that Democrats need to consider and unravel the mystery of why their Senate candidates are in a better position than Harris.
If a serious achievement is made in this area for the Democratic Party, states like Georgia and North Carolina will be entirely conquerable.