Peace diplomacy sacrificed by internal and external despair
Two strange events in America on the brink of finalizing the JCPOA negotiations: the arrest of a suspect for planning to assassinate John Bolton, Trump’s former national security advisor, and the attack on Salman Rushdie, the author of ‘The Satanic Verses’. These events can only be one of two things: either the work of internal sanction profiteers or external forces, or the work of internal despair, or it involves the Israeli lobby and its security services, and their supporters and affiliated groups.
The accusation against an Iranian in the case of planning to assassinate Bolton has been met with denial from Iranian officials and even media activists and supporters of the current power in Iran and on social media. However, in contrast, the assassination attempt on Salman Rushdie has caused a wave of joy, at least among a part of the media body of this movement.
Some have republished the image of Mustafa Mazeh, a member of Hezbollah Lebanon, who attempted to kill Salman Rushdie following Ayatollah Khomeini’s fatwa declaring Rushdie an apostate but was killed during a bombing attempt in a London hotel. They have recalled his failed attempt and now send blessings to his soul. The recent suspect in the assassination is again a Lebanese, and once more, as the JCPOA negotiations are about to conclude, fingers of accusation are pointing towards Iran.
If it is the work of external despair
The issue could also have another aspect, that these operations were organized by opponents and anti-JCPOA factions outside Iran, such as the Israeli lobby. Israel has repeatedly expressed its opposition to the JCPOA and stated that it will not be bound by the revival of the agreement. The Israeli Prime Minister has explicitly said that his country will not be committed to what is written in any potential agreement and will continue to act with full freedom, anywhere and anytime, without any conditions.
Reza Nasri, an international affairs analyst and university professor, writes: Now watch how the Israeli lobby and JCPOA opponents will attribute the attack on Salman Rushdie to Iran and then to the nuclear agreement. It is entirely possible that the recent plots against Alinejad, Bolton, and now Rushdie were organized by the Israeli intelligence system to undermine diplomacy. Marandi, a consultant to Iran’s nuclear team, also wrote on his Twitter: I will not shed a tear for someone who spread hatred against Islam and Muslims for years.
But isn’t it strange that just when we are on the brink of reviving the nuclear agreement, the US claims a plot to assassinate Bolton, and then such an incident, the attack on Rushdie, occurs? Abbas Abdi, a journalist and political analyst, also wrote: I am not one for conspiracy theories, but the coincidental timing of the news about the plot to assassinate Bolton and the assassination of Salman Rushdie with the finalization of the JCPOA talks is unbelievable to me.
Last March, when Iran and the negotiating parties were close to reaching an agreement, the Israeli regime’s defense minister claimed that whether this happens or not, Israel will continue to do anything to prevent Iran from becoming an existential threat and acquiring nuclear capability. Iranian officials have repeatedly stated explicitly that Israel does not want the JCPOA.
Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, the Foreign Minister of Raisi’s government, stated that the Israelis do not want the JCPOA to be revived and claimed that they are lying to the world about Iran seeking to acquire nuclear weapons. The Foreign Ministry spokesman also previously tweeted that the Israeli regime, whose survival depends on tension, has once again taken action to poison the Vienna negotiations and is blowing the trumpet of lies.
If it is the work of internal despair
It is clear that there is a faction inside, perhaps with supporters outside, that does not want the JCPOA to be concluded. This likely has less to do with this or that government and more to do with economic interests than political ones.
The story of diplomacy being led to the slaughter by the field was previously extensively described by former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in a leaked audio file. Zarif said that almost every time he went for negotiations, it was Soleimani who would say, ‘I want you to take this feature, take this point.’ I would go to negotiate for the success of field operations, but when I told him, for example, not to use the Iran Air flight on the Tehran-Syria route, Qasem Soleimani would not comply.
Thus, diplomacy became a cost for the field, but the field never became a cost for diplomacy. Is diplomacy still being sacrificed for the field? In response to the failed assassination plot against John Bolton, which allegedly involved an Iranian member of the Quds Force, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that any assault or threat against American officials by military forces or their affiliates on US soil would have severe consequences. Will the result be anything other than diplomacy being sacrificed for the field once again?
Factions that have become accustomed over many years of sanctions to earning substantial incomes through the establishment of trust companies and an underground economic life without any accountability, and harming the country’s economy, are certainly opposed to the revival of the JCPOA. The revival of the JCPOA, because it leads to the transparency of transactions in the international space and entering the glass room, is in sharp conflict with their interests.
If these two assassinations are directly or indirectly related to either internal or external despair, it is certainly a gift to the hardliners in Congress and the Senate to try to pressure American negotiators through their media. Given that the issue of removing the IRGC from the terrorist list is one of the most important points of contention between Iran and the American side, these two events are exactly in line with their desires and prove the validity of their claims.