Principlists have absolute ownership of the Assembly of Experts
Principlists, who have absolute ownership of the Assembly of Experts, have completed the qualification review process for the candidates of the sixth Assembly of Experts. According to the spokesman of the Guardian Council, 144 candidates have been authorized to participate in these elections, which can be considered semi-elections due to the implementation method and supervision. The majority of the candidates have a clear principled inclination. There are also 16 unique independent figures among the candidates, and there is no candidate with a reformist or moderate orientation on the list.
In this round, according to the Ministry of Interior statistics, 510 candidates had registered, which is fewer than the previous round. In the fifth round, due to the heat of the elections within the framework of the social demand for changing the composition of the Assembly of Experts and the campaign against the triangle of Jannati, Yazdi, and Yazdi, the inclination for candidacy was higher.
From the beginning, the Assembly of Experts has been a forum of white-bearded elders of the Islamic Republic and believers in the theory of guardianship of the jurist, who did not have a dark relationship with the guardianship. The elections of this assembly have never had a serious competitive nature, and participation has been limited to the two main factions of the system. However, the right-wing faction, which is currently the dominant conservative faction centered around the society of scholars of Qom seminary, has always had the upper hand.
Despite the extensive powers that this assembly potentially has to restrain the autocratic and monarchical behavior of the Supreme Leader, in practice, except for the selection of Ali Khamenei as the successor to Ayatollah Khomeini, it has had a neutral policy. This ceremonial performance during Khamenei’s leadership period has led to a decrease in the presence of the left-wing faction and subsequently an increase in the presence of reformists and moderates. Now it has reached a stage where the majority of approved candidates for the sixth Assembly of Experts are fully aligned politically and ideologically with Khamenei and other key power elements, and they are completely obedient.
It should also be noted that in the second term, the Guardian Council was responsible for reviewing the eligibility of candidates, which plays a crucial role in neutralizing the performance of the Assembly of Experts due to creating a flawed cycle. The Assembly of Experts, according to the Constitution, is the body that determines the Leader and oversees his performance, having the authority to dismiss him. However, the Guardian Council determines the eligibility of parliamentary candidates and decides whether its members are directly appointed by the Leader or confirmed by him.
The lowest level of eligibility approval occurred in the second term after Ali Khamenei became the Leader, where prominent figures from the left-wing, reformist, and conservative factions were disqualified or had to take a written exam. The low level of competition in the Assembly of Experts elections is such that in no term has the number of eligible candidates exceeded twice the required seats on average. This ratio was at its lowest in the second term, where in some constituencies, elections were not held due to lack of competition. In that term, in Tehran province, where 15 representatives were to be elected, only 16 candidates were present, and ultimately the official participation rate was announced as 37 percent.
More than 40% of the first-class experts did not participate in the second term of this council for various reasons, and the composition of the Assembly of Experts changed significantly. The lowest disqualification rate was observed in the first term, where the Guardian Council, responsible for evaluating the qualifications of candidates, was not involved. However, it should be noted that on average, 40% of the Assembly of Experts’ composition has changed in each term. Subsequently, some of the characteristics of the sixth round of the Assembly of Experts elections are described.
Difference from the previous term
22 initial representatives of the Fifth Assembly of Experts have passed away. Notable figures among them include Nourallah Tabarsi, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Seyyed Mahmoud Shahroudi, Mohammad Yazdi, Mohammad Mo’men, Abdolnabi Namazi, Mohsen Mojtahed Shabestari, Mohammad Mohammadi Nik Rayshahri, Ibrahim Haj Amini Najafabadi, Nasrollah Shahabadi, Mohammad Hassan Fazil Golpayegani, Seyyed Hashem Bat’haei, Abbas Ali Solimani, Asadollah Imani, Seyyed Abolfazl Mirmohammadi, Mohammad Feiz Sarabi, Habibollah Mihamannava, Ali Asghar Masoumi Shahroudi, Mohammad Faghih Mirfakhradin Nenekaran, Mohammad Ali Tashkiri, and Abbas Ali Akhtari. Additionally, 9 individuals from this group have not been nominated for this term: Ahmad Mohseni Gorgani, Hashem Hashemzadeh Harisi, Ahmad Jannati, Seyyed Ali Asghar Dastgheib, Seyyed Abdolhadi Hosseini Shahroudi, Mohammad Hadi Abd Khodaei Zinalabedin, Seyyed Kazem Noormofidi, and Mohammad Emami Kashani.
Four individuals have been disqualified, including Hassan Rouhani and Ahmad Alavi from the Moderates, and Abdolkarim Farahani and Ahmad Parvaii from the Principlists. In total, 62 initial representatives of the Fifth Assembly of Experts and those who have reached this assembly in the midterm elections are participating in the Sixth Assembly of Experts elections, competing for 88 seats.
The greatest decrease in candidates occurred in Tehran province compared to the previous round. Only four out of the first-round elected experts are among the confirmed candidates for the sixth round.
Also, the non-nomination of Seyyed Rouhollah Sadr al-Sadati is noteworthy. After the incident involving the disappearance of his brother, who was rumored to be detained, he did not engage in any specific activities and ultimately was not nominated for the sixth round of the Experts Assembly elections. Among the confirmed candidates, only Mohtadi Kermani, Mousavi Jazayeri, and Qorashi are individuals who have been members of the Assembly of Experts in all five previous terms.
The complete lack of competition
Competition in this election round has reached its lowest point, and there is almost no significant political difference between the candidates. The Guardian Council, by further narrowing the qualification criteria, has practically given the space to the community of seminary scholars in Qom to elevate its majority position in the Assembly of Experts.
The lowest competition level is among the candidates who have passed the Guardian Council’s vetting process in East Azerbaijan province, where representatives have practically been appointed already. The highest relative competition is in Qom, Ilam, Hormozgan, Yazd, and Chaharmahal va Bakhtiari provinces, where out of three candidates, one will win the seat. The average competition rate in provinces is 67%. This rate is 2% nationwide for the twelfth parliamentary elections.
Continuation of the hegemony of the Society of Seminary Teachers in Qom
The Society of Seminary Teachers in Qom, with the rent provided to them by the Guardian Council, has found an opportunity to expand its influence in the Assembly of Experts without any competitors. This event increases their weight in selecting the Supreme Leader’s successor relatively. The Guardian Council has disqualified reformists and moderates, as well as individuals affiliated with extremist and neo-principled factions, similar to previous rounds where figures like Heydar Moslehi and Mehdi Taeb couldn’t pass through the Guardian Council’s filter.
Mostafa Pourmohammadi was able to obtain his qualification approval after the initial rejection. His qualification was not approved eight years ago, but eventually, he was not included in the comprehensive list of teachers’ society for Tehran province. Therefore, there is a low possibility for him to become a representative. Since Pourmohammadi is the Secretary-General of the Combatant Clergy Association in Tehran, the influence of this clerical government organization in the capital has almost diminished, and the teachers’ society of Qom has become the sole determinant of the seats in the Assembly of Experts.
It seems that the Guardianship of the Jurist has established a balance so that old and traditional faces of principlists have the upper hand in the Assembly of Experts, but in the parliamentary elections, they may lose ground to new faces and structures. The teachers’ society is the main support of the Unity Council of Principlists, which competes with the Coalition Council of Islamic Revolution Forces. However, the teachers’ society has also undergone a generational shift, and responsibilities seem to be transferring to their second generation. Members of the teachers’ society who participate in the Experts Assembly elections mostly belong to the second generation. From this perspective, the average age of the sixth Experts Council is lower compared to the fifth Experts Council.
Presidency of the Assembly of Experts
Ahmad Jannati’s withdrawal from running for the sixth term of the Assembly of Experts has created a special and uncertain situation for the presidency of the sixth term. The first and second deputies of the fifth Assembly of Experts are relatively Ibrahim Raeisi and Hashem Hosseini Bushehri, who have a better chance for the presidency. However, their potential presidency for the sixth term is not certain. Mohammad Ali Movahedi Kermani, Alireza Arafi, and Ahmad Alamolhoda may also become the successor of Ahmad Jannati.
Strengthening the deputy position of Ibrahim Raeisi
Ibrahim Raeisi came out of direct affiliation in the South Khorasan province seat through the intervention of the Guardian Council and transferring candidates from other provinces. The possible composition of the sixth Assembly of Experts has more harmony and compatibility with him, which relatively strengthens the deputy position for him. Ibrahim Raeisi won the competition for the first deputy position in the fifth Assembly of Experts against Sadegh Larijani and with the new composition, it seems his votes have increased compared to before.
