The Honeymoon of Pyongyang and Moscow
Putin-Kim
The honeymoon of Pyongyang and Moscow is confirmed by Putin’s visit to Pyongyang, highlighting the excellent state of relations between North Korea and Russia. Not only is the war in Ukraine at stake, but unresolved regional issues with Beijing are also in jeopardy.
New Global Strategic Partnership Agreement
This is the main outcome of the latest visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to North Korea, where he was warmly welcomed by leader Kim Jong Un amidst a display of flags, flowers, and honors from both countries’ leaders.
A key point of this agreement, which Putin emphasized at the end of the two-hour face-to-face meeting with Kim, is that Moscow and Pyongyang commit to assist each other in the event of foreign aggression.
Prior to this closed-door meeting, which lasted longer than initially planned, Putin and Kim held extensive discussions in the presence of delegations from both countries for over an hour and a half.
North Korea’s official news agency KCNA emphasizes that this meeting, held 270 days after Kim’s last visit to Russia, occurs at a time when relations between Moscow and Pyongyang represent a driving force for accelerating the creation of a new multipolar world.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has undoubtedly given unprecedented momentum to the relations between the two countries, especially concerning arms issues. However, Putin’s visit also speaks to the axis that connects them to the heavy weight of the multipolar world desired by both, alongside China and Xi Jinping.
A Limitless Alliance
Putin was received in a festive atmosphere with a dance display by North Korea’s communist regime in Pyongyang. Two national flags flew over Pyongyang International Airport, and the northern capital was adorned with images of the two leaders.
Kim shook hands with Putin and warmly embraced him, thanking him for his presence. Despite the symbolism and grand style of the meeting, it clearly signifies a step forward in bilateral relations.
This is a noticeable reality, especially if we consider the cooling of relations between Moscow and Pyongyang following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The rapprochement between the two countries began in 2000 with Putin’s first visit to North Korea, when Kim Jong Il, the father of the current North Korean leader, was still there. However, the war in Ukraine has facilitated closer cooperation, particularly in the military domain. It is no coincidence that the Russian president linked the new commitment to mutual defense with the current situation. Putin, with a subtle but not overly hidden reference to the ongoing war in Eastern Europe, said this is not just a statement but is happening.
Armed Relationship
Back in September 2022, seven months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United States accused North Korea for the first time of selling artillery to Russia. However, in August 2023, the White House announced that Putin and Kim were engaged in arms negotiations, which were finalized in September with the North Korean leader’s visit to eastern Russia. A few weeks later, U.S. government officials reported that North Korea had sent over 1,000 containers of weapons to Russia for use in the Ukraine war. According to New York Times sources, by March 2024, North Korea had sent nearly 7,000 containers of weapons to Russia, replenishing an arsenal that had been depleted due to war efforts that began two years ago. Both Moscow and Pyongyang officially deny these transactions, which are banned due to United Nations sanctions against North Korea. These exchanges and military cooperation are particularly significant at a time when Western support for Kyiv seems increasingly weak.
Does Beijing Approve?
However, Ukraine is not the only item on the joint agenda of Kim and Putin. Their countries, in fact, emphasize the Asian space and, most importantly, have a cumbersome neighbor like China.
At this stage, the three countries form an axis united by disdain for the Euro-Atlantic system but divided over regional issues. According to some international observers, the Chinese have significant doubts about the intensification of North Korea’s military cooperation with Russia.
Beijing fears that Pyongyang could acquire military technology from Moscow that would accelerate its missile and nuclear development programs, threatening an already fragile regional stability.
According to press reports, China’s fear could be alleviated with a major strategic concession.
In fact, the three countries are ready to discuss the possibility of allowing Chinese ships to navigate a river that marks the border between Russia and North Korea and connects to the Sea of Japan, with significant security implications for Tokyo. The Tumen River waterway initially flows along the China-North Korea border and eventually with Russia before entering the Sea of Japan to the east. Currently, Chinese ships can only freely navigate the landlocked section under Chinese sovereignty, but the situation may change.
Certainly, the meeting between Putin and Kim shouldn’t have sparked the same enthusiasm among Beijing leaders as the reception given to the Russian president in Pyongyang.
China has repeatedly demonstrated its coolness towards the emergence of an openly anti-Western agreement in East Asia, a possibility that heavily facilitates the strengthening of military integration among U.S. allies in the region.
A logical reaction to the closeness between Russia and North Korea would indeed be to institutionalize strategic cooperation between the United States, Japan, and South Korea. This is a scenario Beijing intends to avoid. Access to the Sea of Japan is unlikely to convince Beijing to overlook this significant issue, as China’s game in East Asia is not limited to the military level alone.