Waves of a Potential Iranian Attack on Israel
Despite two weeks having passed since the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’ political bureau in Tehran, there is still no news of an Iranian reaction or an imminent attack on Israel.
However, since the afternoon of this past Monday, a serious political and media campaign against Tehran has been formed, which seems to aim at controlling Iran and deterring it from responding to Haniyeh’s assassination.
According to Iran Gate, the engine of these new campaigns traces back to claims by Fox News citing Western officials who say Iran is set to attack Israel within the next 24 hours, during Tisha B’Av, the ninth day of the Hebrew month of Av, when followers of Judaism fast.
The ninth of Av is known as the most ominous day in Jewish history, and it is alleged that Iran plans to attack Israel on this day, although, ultimately, no such event occurred.
Donald Trump, the US election candidate, also claimed that everyone is expecting an attack from Iran against Israel, but Iranians will not attack.
Contrary to what Trump said, Brigadier General Asghar Abbasgholizadeh, commander of the Ashura Corps, announced in a meeting with the media on Monday, August 13, that the attack is certain and stated that although it seems delayed for a response and revenge, the enemy is under a lot of pressure by waiting. We are waiting for the leader’s command, whether for patience and resilience or for a response. Previously, a joint statement by Qatar, Egypt, and the US for a ceasefire agreement in Gaza strengthened speculations about Tehran refraining from attacking Israel if a ceasefire ends the war in Gaza and Israel withdraws from the strip. Ultimately, Hamas said no to negotiations following Tel Aviv’s attacks on schools and the killing of civilians.
In this context, Hamas believes that the efforts of Washington, Doha, and Cairo for a ceasefire in the Gaza war and returning both sides to the negotiating table were previously coordinated with Israel to prevent an Iranian attack on Israel. Ultimately, Hamas announced on Sunday, August 11, that it would not join the upcoming negotiations on Thursday this week unless the negotiations are based on the frameworks of previous rounds, not revised frameworks.
However, according to Deutsche Welle, citing a Palestinian official close to the negotiations, the situation regarding Hamas’s decision not to attend the negotiations might change, but currently, this group believes that Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, is not serious about reaching an agreement.
Despite Hamas’s statements, John Kirby, the White House National Security Council spokesperson, stated in a meeting that the Thursday meeting for ceasefire negotiations in Gaza is still on and that negotiations must continue.
The timing of Iran’s response may affect the ceasefire talks in Gaza on Thursday because, according to him, Iran’s attack on Israel could be extensive, and for this reason, we have made changes to our force posture. Besides the aforementioned point, there is also the possibility that the political and diplomatic pressures of the past 48 hours and the speculation about an imminent Iranian attack and Tehran’s impending response are a psychological game to draw Tehran into Tel Aviv’s track. Meanwhile, according to Entekhab, US State Department officials have also expressed hope that Iran will limit its response to Israel.
According to ABC and citing US State Department officials, it is expected that Iran will attack Israel before Thursday.
Europe on a Wave of Pressure
Following what has been said and while the issue of Tehran’s right and manner of responding to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh is still being discussed, in recent days, there has been a coordinated pressure from Europeans to stop or reduce the intensity of potential Iranian attacks on Israel.
Under this wave of pressure, Mehr, citing Reuters, reported that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, in a phone call yesterday, Tuesday, with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, asked him to refrain from attacking Israel and also said that war benefits no one.
Reuters wrote that Starmer spoke with Pezeshkian as part of efforts to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East.
According to Sky News, which first published the news of this conversation, the phone call lasted 30 minutes and took place after Starmer’s talks with US President Joe Biden and other European allies.
Reuters wrote that Starmer, in his conversation with Pezeshkian, expressed deep concern about the situation in the Middle East and called on all parties to de-escalate to avoid escalating regional tensions.
In this conversation, Starmer, claiming his commitment to establishing an immediate ceasefire and increasing humanitarian aid to Gaza, claimed there is a serious risk of miscalculation, and now is the time for calm and careful reflection. The focus should be on diplomatic negotiations.
Also, according to Reuters, Starmer, like his allies in Europe and the US, asked Iran to stop what he called destabilizing actions in the region.
He also reiterated the baseless Western claim about Tehran’s assistance to Moscow in the Ukraine war.
Similar positions were presented by the German Chancellor in a phone call on Monday with Pezeshkian, where the Iranian President emphasized that Tehran has always considered itself obliged to comply with international laws and regulations, stating that Iran welcomes the development of interactions with all countries and emphasizes solving problems through negotiation. It will never surrender to the pressure of sanctions, bullying, and aggression but considers responding to aggressors as its right according to international norms.
On the same Monday, IRNA also reported, citing ANSA, that Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani had a half-hour phone call with Ali Bagheri, the head of the Iranian Foreign Ministry.
Tajani claimed about the content of his phone call with Bagheri Kani that Tehran emphasized its right to react to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’ political bureau, and Fouad Shukr, a senior commander of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Italian Foreign Minister also wrote on social media platform X about his phone call with Bagheri, stating that he called for moderation and a constructive approach.
Now is the time to prevent reactions that could fuel conflict in the region and jeopardize work on a ceasefire agreement in Gaza. Tajani concluded his written statement in the virtual space with the sentence: Sacrificing the lives of innocent civilians is enough.
Anti-Iranian Statements by the US and Four European Countries
In continuation of phone calls and diplomatic messages from Europe aimed at de-escalation, control, management of tensions, and mediation in the region, the leaders of the US and four countries—Britain, France, Germany, and Italy—in a joint statement, called on Iran to refrain from a potential attack on Israel while also announcing they are ready to defend Israel against Iranian threats.
According to Entekhab, the statement said Iran must abandon its decision for a military response to Israel. The US, UK, France, Germany, and Italy also asked Iran to stop its continued threat of military attack on Israel.
The statement adds that the US and the four countries—UK, France, Germany, and Italy—are ready to defend Israel against Iranian threats, and the leaders of these countries discussed the severe consequences of such an attack for regional security.
The five named countries claimed that we support efforts to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East.
The statement further stated that we support efforts to achieve a ceasefire and the release of hostages in Gaza, and it is necessary that aid be delivered and distributed in Gaza without any restrictions because there is no more time to waste, and all parties must take responsibility.
Besides the joint statement of the US and the four countries—UK, France, Germany, and Italy—IRNA also reported on Monday, citing Reuters, that the UK, in a joint statement with France and Germany, which was published by the British government the same day, asked Iran to refrain from attacking Israel, which according to these three countries would lead to increased tensions and the loss of the possibility of a ceasefire.
Also, London, Paris, and Berlin, in their joint statement, while asking Iran, announced that the war must end now and all prisoners still detained must be released. The statement also said that the people of Gaza need the immediate and unrestricted delivery and distribution of aid.
Tehran’s Response
Nasser Kanaani, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, also yesterday, August 14, in response to the statement issued by the three European countries—France, Germany, and the UK—regarding regional developments, stated that the statement by the leaders of the three European countries has been issued while due to the indifference of Western countries and supporters of Israel, the commission of various international violations, including war crimes against the defenseless Palestinian nation, continues and the impunity of Israeli officials has increased their audacity in committing international crimes.
Kanaani, referring to the worsening humanitarian situation in Gaza, also stated that while the United Nations and its Security Council have been unable to create deterrence against Israel for more than 10 months, Israel’s violent actions against the Palestinian people and its transnational assassinations in other regional countries take on new dimensions every day, and surprisingly, no practical and effective action is observed from Western countries, including Germany, France, and the UK, to stop or confront these crimes.
The Ninth Meaningful Trip of Blinken to the Region
Amid these news reports, Hebrew-language media reported that the US Secretary of State will arrive in the occupied territories on Tuesday night during a regional trip, although this trip had not taken place at the time of preparing this report. However, the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper claimed that Antony Blinken would enter Israel tonight during his trip to the region, which includes Qatar and Egypt.
As Fars mentioned, previously, Barak Ravid, an Israeli reporter for the Axios website, reported that Antony Blinken would travel to Qatar, Egypt, and the occupied territories, but this trip has not yet been finalized.
In a report, citing informed sources at Axios, he wrote that the US Secretary of State is set to travel to West Asia on Tuesday night. If Blinken’s trip to the West Asia region takes place, it will be his ninth trip to the occupied territories since October 7.
The latest trip by the US Secretary of State to the occupied territories took place in early June, two months ago. This is the first trip by the US Secretary of State to the occupied territories following Israel’s recent action in the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, a senior Hamas leader, in Tehran.