What is the reality of Afghan migrant statistics?
What is the reality of Afghan migrant statistics?
Narratives about the economic impacts of Afghan citizens migrating to Iran after the Taliban’s rise to power are often contradictory and sometimes exaggerated. Some officials of the Islamic Republic portray the presence of citizens from the eastern neighbor in Iran as a factor of economic instability in the country. The government recently announced the expulsion of a number of Afghan migrants, and the fate of those who entered Iran illegally after the Taliban’s takeover remains unclear.
In past decades, Iran has been one of the most significant destinations for Afghan citizens’ migration. However, after the Taliban returned to power in 2023, a new wave of Afghan refugees migrating to Iran emerged. In response to this migration trend, the government has repeatedly officially stated that it cannot accept Afghans in Iran. Meanwhile, there are also contradictory reactions from the public on social media; some support the continued presence of Afghan refugees, while others oppose it.
The government’s threatening statements against migrants have sometimes set the stage for the use of insulting language against them on social media. Among these, opponents of migrants’ presence in Iran refer to data and statistics whose accuracy is unclear, from the actual number of migrants to their use of cash and non-cash subsidies. Official representatives of the Islamic Republic portray the widespread presence of Afghan migrants in Iran as a factor increasing government costs. In recent years, the government has implemented various measures to counter the trend of illegal refugee migration, including building border walls and widespread expulsions.
Recently, Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni announced the expulsion of one million unauthorized individuals and stated that border closures are underway. Despite the government’s serious pursuit of the policy of expelling illegal refugees, it is said that this policy has not been very successful. Previously, the head of the Foreign Nationals and Migrants Affairs Center of the Ministry of Interior stated that nearly three million unauthorized individuals have been expelled from the country in the past three years, but due to the harsh conditions in Afghanistan, these individuals have returned to Iran.
Considering that a significant number of refugees have legally crossed the Iranian border and have never been identified, it is said that the actual number of migrants may differ from official figures. In a situation where contradictory statistics exist about the status of nationals in Iran, every organization or entity announces statistics in a way that justifies its own goals. For example, the Ministry of Interior, which seeks the expulsion of illegal nationals, always announces the highest statistics. This October, the Center for Strategic Studies and Education of the Ministry of Interior published a research report that, contrary to all existing data, declared the number of Afghans present in Iran to be between 10 to 10.5 million.
Validating the Ministry of Interior’s claims
In September this year, the Ministry of Interior’s Center for Strategic Studies published a report on the economic impacts of migrants’ presence in Iran, claiming that the 10.5 million Afghan nationals collectively receive about 80 trillion tomans in subsidies. This research states that bread and education subsidies for the 600,000 Afghan students are also paid from the government’s pocket. Another part of this research claims that at least 100 trillion tomans will be allocated to migrants in 2024.
However, this research, whose report is no longer available online after being published for a while, also emphasized the advantages of foreign labor presence for the private sector, stating that Iranian employers benefit from foreign labor because they offer lower wages and do not pay insurance premiums. In contrast, the government suffers due to subsidy payments, and the Social Security Organization suffers due to receiving lower insurance premiums.
The claim of heavy subsidy payments to migrants has not only been raised by the Ministry of Interior’s Center for Strategic Studies. In recent years, some official representatives have also claimed figures that not only do not align with economic realities but each of these claims contradicts the other. For example, Abolfazl Abutorabi, a member of parliament, stated in a television program this September that the total hidden subsidies and money that foreign nationals annually take out of Iran is 21 billion dollars. This claim was widely circulated on social media at the time, with many supporters of Afghan migrants’ expulsion citing it.
This member of parliament claimed that 21 billion dollars were taken out by nationals, while according to customs data, Iran’s total exports in 2023 were about 49.4 billion dollars, and such figures do not align with the small scale of Iran’s economy. Statements by another member of parliament, Yaqub Rezazadeh, reveal more contradictions. He claimed on October 5 this year that 17 million Afghans are receiving subsidies in Iran, while in none of the official statistics has the number of Afghan migrants been stated as 17 million.
Sara Fallahi, a member of the National Security Commission of Parliament, also said that five to eight million Afghan nationals collectively receive over 250 trillion tomans in hidden subsidies. By ‘hidden subsidies,’ she means part of the government’s assistance that keeps commodity prices low in Iran’s economy. The government usually provides subsidies in the form of preferential currency for essential goods or by accounting for lower rates for refinery feedstock to control prices within Iran.
In the 2024 budget, the preferential currency is set at 15 billion dollars, and it is said that the annual energy subsidy is about 100 to 120 billion dollars. Given that there is no specific criterion for accurately measuring the extent to which refugees benefit from hidden subsidies, it is unclear which of these claims is correct. However, it can be guessed that not all foreigners, especially illegal migrants, fully benefit from these subsidies.
Afghan labor as an advantage for the private sector
Contrary to all the restrictions that the government has imposed on employing unauthorized nationals in the labor market, many employers, especially in the construction sector, retail market, and service centers, use Afghan labor. Since foreign nationals request lower wages compared to Iranian labor, the total cost of goods decreases, and the profit margin of the private sector is strengthened.
In 2023, Mahmoud Karimi Beiranvand, Deputy Minister of Employment, announced that in Iran, at least one and a half million workers are employed without work permits, and three million workers are employed with work permits. This statistic indicates a greater tendency of employers to hire unauthorized nationals and reduce production costs. According to data from the Statistical Center, the employment of Afghans in Iran’s labor market has grown by over 45% in the past decade. Afghan workers made up about 33% of Iran’s labor force in 2022, and this share has likely increased after the second wave of Afghan migration in 2023.
More detailed data from the Statistical Center shows that although they have mostly worked in service and non-specialized sectors, their presence in two occupational groups of technicians and specialists has more than doubled since 2012. Findings from another part of the Statistical Center’s data show that the employment of Afghan nationals has mostly occurred in sectors with lower insurance rates. This reality indicates that one of the main reasons for employers’ preference for foreign nationals is reducing production costs and paying lower wages and insurance premiums. On the other hand, it is unclear whether, in the event of the expulsion of such workers from the labor market, employers will still be able to hire Iranian labor with higher insurance and wage costs.
Working in Iran is no longer profitable
The maximum pressure policies against the Islamic Republic by U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside the Islamic Republic leaders’ opposition to negotiating with the U.S. over the nuclear program, have increased the dollar rate in Iran’s free market above 90,000 tomans. With the further devaluation of Iran’s national currency, the value of labor wages in Iran will also weaken. Therefore, given the current wages, converting rials to foreign currencies and sending them to Afghanistan is no longer economically viable for Afghan migrants working in Iran as it was in the past.
In this context, claims about money being sent abroad by Afghans are also facing serious ambiguities. Abolfazl Abutorabi, a member of parliament, predicted that about seven billion dollars would be taken out by Afghan nationals. Assuming there are five million Afghans and a dollar rate of 90,000 tomans in Iran, to remove seven billion dollars, each of these nationals would need to have about 126 million tomans. However, saving this amount is very difficult even for Iranian citizens with employee salaries. Despite the Iranian government’s strict policies towards Afghan migrants, widespread migrant movement continues at the borders.
Despite political challenges, Afghan migrants play an undeniable role in various sectors of Iran’s labor market. Although their presence has reduced production costs for employers, the pressure of unauthorized nationals on public resources cannot be denied.
Meanwhile, a migrant support organization, the Mixed Migration Centre, recently announced that Afghan migrants in Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, and Tajikistan face increasing threats such as detention and expulsion, as well as violence from government officials in these countries. Despite this, the deep economic, social, and human ties between the people of Iran and Afghanistan continue.
