How high is the housing inflation in Tehran?
According to Iran Gate’s report on the government’s concealment of statistics related to housing inflation and average prices in Tehran and the country, ambiguities have intensified in the housing market. These ambiguities have created tension in the market and prices have increased unimaginably. Now, media outlets have published statistics indicating a more than 100% increase in prices in the past year.
According to statistics published by domestic media outlets, it appears that housing inflation from month to month in Farvardin 1401 (March-April 2022) has been over 100%. The current situation of the housing market also indicates an unprecedented rise in rental rates, and it seems that this trend will continue. Meanwhile, the Central Bank, which is obligated to publish housing market statistics, has not fulfilled its duty for over 5 months. Experts believe that the government and the Central Bank have decided to combat inflation and high prices through a strategy of concealment.
Iran Gate has examined a two-part report on housing inflation and reflected the analysts’ analysis in this case. The first part of this case refers to the expanded report, which is further discussed.
What is the actual housing inflation?
According to statistics published by the Tomorrow’s Economy website, the point-to-point inflation rate of housing in Tehran province has been over 100%. In other words, housing prices in Tehran province have more than doubled in the period between Farvardin 1402 and Farvardin 1401, over the course of one year.
However, the published statistics remind us of very important points that will warn of the worsening economic situation for the people. This is while the government had promised to not only control housing inflation but also reduce prices by producing more than 4 million housing units during the 4 years of the presidency.
As mentioned, this report includes many alarming points that need to be addressed by the government and other governing bodies. The Parliamentary Research Center had also published similar reports in the past months, but they did not receive as much attention. However, the government and the central bank’s concealment in the field of statistics publication has caused the recent report to receive more attention than ever in non-governmental media.
According to these statistics, the Mahmodieh neighborhood in Tehran has become one of the most expensive areas in Tehran with over 167 million tomans per square meter. On the other hand, the cheapest area in the capital belongs to the Fath and Kooye Hefteh Shahrivar districts, where each square meter was traded for about 18 million tomans in Farvardin 1402.
The highest housing inflation was observed in poor neighborhoods of Tehran.
Analyzing the statistical data shows that not only the housing inflation rate in poor neighborhoods of the capital has been higher than other areas, but also the housing rate in satellite towns and areas without the minimum facilities for living is at the top of the housing inflation chart in Tehran province. According to this report, the month-on-month housing inflation rate in Farvardin 1401 for satellite towns in the outskirts of Tehran was over 150 percent, meaning that housing prices in areas such as Robat Karim, Shahr-e Rey, and Parand have increased by more than two and a half times compared to Farvardin 1401.
This means that the lower-income classes living in the suburbs of Tehran have purchased housing that is more than 50% more expensive than the average in Tehran. This point carries very important messages, the analysis of which can open many doors in the field of economic analysis for experts. One of the most important messages is a warning that indicates the onslaught of the middle class and middle-income individuals in the capital city to buy housing in satellite towns of Tehran.
A look at housing inflation in other areas of Tehran also shows that almost all areas with higher inflation rates than the average inflation rate in the capital city belong to the low-income neighborhoods of Tehran. On the other hand, the lowest housing inflation rate in the past year belongs to the affluent areas of Tehran, which could indicate a decrease in demand for buying housing in these areas.
The next section provides a more detailed analysis of the statistics and figures in this report. The data related to housing inflation rates in all 22 districts of Tehran is also presented separately in the second part of this file.
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