The alarm bell rang
Despite more than 40 days passing since the start of the year 1402, there is still no news about the release of inflation statistics for the month of Esfand 1401 and the previous month of Farvardin. Experts believe that this government action will not only have no effect on curbing inflation but will also worsen the situation.
The Statistical Center of Iran is responsible for publishing monthly and annual inflation statistics for the past 30 days. However, until 97, the Central Bank also had such a measure on its agenda. But the government limited the publication of inflation statistics to the authority of the Statistical Center. Ibrahim Raeisi also accused the Rouhani government of censoring statistics. But now, after 21 months of the 13th government, not only has the previous government’s action not been corrected, but the Statistical Center has also been cautious about publishing statistics.
The problem is not just inflation
The policy of not publishing statistics by the government and the central bank is not limited to inflation rates alone. Neither the Statistical Center nor the Central Bank have published any statistics related to the housing sector and average prices for the past four years. Moreover, many of the previously published statistics and figures have faced serious ambiguities according to economists.
Reports received by Iran Gate indicate that domestic media outlets are under intense pressure from security institutions regarding the publication of the free market exchange rate. It is even said that an exchange rate approximately 10% lower than the free market rate is being imposed on official media outlets. In fact, security institutions are pressuring the media to publish a rate that is about 10% lower than the actual currency price. Interestingly, this phenomenon is not limited to the dollar rate alone, but also applies to the prices of euro, pound, dirham, various gold coins, and more.
Inflation control through concealment
Based on the news coming from government advisors and the indications from the government’s behavior, it appears that officials believe they can solve the problems caused by inflation by not publishing statistics. Especially the naming of the year 1402 with the focus on the keyword ‘inflation control’ has further encouraged government officials to prevent the release of inflation statistics.
But the point here is that such actions can be effective and lead to control or containment of inflation, economists believe that this policy will not only not exacerbate the problem but will also intensify the crisis. It should be noted that in an inflationary environment, the dissemination of any news that raises doubts can lead to a further increase in inflation. In other words, anything that increases people’s and market participants’ doubts about economic activity will further intensify inflation.
More ambiguity means intensified inflation expectations.
Economic experts believe that generally, any market affected by ambiguity will experience more inflammation. Inflammation, in turn, leads to increased speculative activities in various markets. These speculative activities are known as inflation expectations. Therefore, the lack of inflation statistics intensifies the element of ambiguity and leads to increased inflation expectations, which is completely contradictory to the slogan of inflation containment.
On the one hand, the unprecedented increase in distrust towards the government in Iran has led people and the public to interpret any hidden actions as conspiracy theories. In simpler terms, people believe that whatever the government tries to hide implies destructive actions and conspiracies against the ordinary people’s interests. The government’s track record in dealing with various crises also intensifies the public’s skepticism towards similar issues.
Now, it seems that the non-disclosure of inflation rate statistics by relevant authorities has also caused people to believe that inflation has experienced a significant surge, and the government intends to move in the direction of concealment. These assumptions, which do not seem likely to be accurate, are another factor in exacerbating real inflation, which completely contradicts the policy of inflation control. Therefore, it can be said that Ibrahim Raisi’s government has decided to refrain from falsifying statistics and completely halt the publication of any statistics to avoid being questioned or forced to be accountable.
Uncovering the root causes of Iran’s economic cancer: Why inflation is uncontrollable in Iran – Part 4
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