The continuation of the current situation is not possible
The continuation of the current situation is not possible
1 The continuation of the current conditions for the country is not possible, meaning that the existing indicators and components show that our country is in a precarious situation, and continuing the current conditions imposes significant costs on the government and additional pressures on society.
No one says or wants our national dignity and pride to be tarnished.
Certainly, we must formulate and pursue our foreign policy strategies based on dignity, wisdom, and expediency. However, the point is that under the current conditions, the policy of neither war nor negotiation practically provides an opportunity for others to decide about the Islamic Republic and Iran.
In other words, if we continue this situation, instead of actively participating in the international system and striving to pursue the national interests of the country, we become a subject of negotiations that major powers discuss among themselves, and without any benefit to our country, we become their bargaining chip.
From this perspective, I emphasize that there must be a reconsideration in the country’s policies, especially in foreign policy. It is essential to note that our country’s foreign trade is not with many countries.
We have relations with a limited number of countries worldwide, and this has imposed enormous costs on Iran’s economy.
For example, due to the conditions of sanctions, we are forced to sell our oil at a high discount.
Or the countries we trade with constantly present new demands and expectations, imposing significant costs on society. Based on this, we have no choice but to reconsider our policies.
2 In the current situation, it is necessary for the government to assess the extent of society’s resilience.
The government must estimate which segments of society are most vulnerable to the collection of these policies, sanctions, currency fluctuations, the devaluation of the national currency, and the decline in people’s purchasing power. Without precise data and a clear policy approach, policymaking is impossible.
The next point is that judging the future based on a series of unsupported slogans and spending from the people’s pocket will make the situation very difficult.
It seems that our government is lacking in terms of political and social think tanks, and I don’t see any place in the government that has thought about the social consequences of the foreign policy conditions the country is caught in and then made policies based on that thinking.
This is a very serious weakness, and there are no signs that policies have been made based on this thinking.
Experts must warn about this weakness and say that society’s resilience is not limitless.
The collection of social and economic conditions and indicators, like a thermometer, shows that Iranian society is in very difficult and worrying conditions.
3 Among the quickest policies to yield results is foreign policy. Therefore, if there is an opening in the country’s foreign policy, the economic conditions will change significantly and will be evident.
Following this, people’s living conditions will improve, trade exchanges will occur, and the country will exit this situation.
However, if we do not succeed in reaching a consensus with major powers, negotiate, and do not achieve results based on national interests, the continuation of the current conditions will make the situation very difficult, and at that time, we will need different policies.
4 Different policymaking means that we must be able to make the most use of the country’s existing capacities, meaning we should be able to attract the set of investments in the country, create special conditions for entrepreneurs, establish high trust between society and the government, make changes in policies and approaches, make our social policies more supportive concerning vulnerable groups, reconsider our cultural and social policies regarding the middle class, and change some constraints caused by narrow-mindedness, meaning our effort should be that the only factor causing dissatisfaction in society is the economic conditions, which to some extent are beyond our control, and we are forced to make decisions based on national interests, but we must strive to bring other dissatisfaction-causing factors almost to zero.
5 The next noteworthy point is that predicting and forecasting the current conditions in Iran and the region is very difficult, and we can only analyze them at most week by week or month by month. However, what can be analyzed with the collection of conditions shows instability and a lack of sustainability.
For example, in foreign affairs, it is unlikely that Israel and Trump can continue in this manner.
It seems the region is undergoing a transformation towards a new order.
In this new order, if we act actively, we will certainly maintain our position as before, but the more passive we are, the more our country’s position and national interests will be affected.
6 One of the important points is that we must believe that national power is not only in military weapons.
Undoubtedly, missiles and the country’s defensive advancements have been power-building, and no one approves of the system losing this power, and even if someone wants to negotiate over this power, society will certainly not accept it.
However, the point is that if we are an economic power in the region, our trade balance will be different from the current conditions. If our budget figures are much larger and our foreign trade volume increases, naturally, other powers and countries will interact with us differently.
An Iran that is economically powerful and one of the largest economic hubs in the region will be less vulnerable compared to an Iran that only relies on military potential for policy-making. Overall, the efforts of our statesmen should be to transform Iran into an economic power, and in today’s world, this will not be possible without trade exchanges with the world and without open-door policies in the economic field.
