The Fabrication of Statistics by Raisi’s Government Doesn’t Solve Any Problems
The fabrication of statistics by Raisi’s government doesn’t solve any problems. In the past year, energy economy experts have consistently raised serious doubts about the reports from Raisi’s government regarding the volume of oil exports. Now, one of the oversight bodies of the Islamic Republic has published a report that, based on its findings, shows the government’s claims were unfounded and that Iran’s oil exports are significantly less than the official reports suggest.
Ebrahim Raisi has consistently, over the past year, claimed a significant increase in oil revenues in the new government, based on reports whose authenticity is questioned by experts. The President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, relying on these controversial reports, claimed to have circumvented oil sanctions and increased Iran’s energy export revenues. However, a recently published report in Iran indicates that the statistics and figures claimed by Ebrahim Raisi are incorrect.
Report of the Court of Audit
The Court of Audit in Iran is an oversight body whose one of its duties is to publish reports on the implementation of the annual budget by the government. This body, which publishes six reports under the title of budget implementation reports each year, has recently provided interesting information to the media. At first glance, the Court of Audit of Iran seems to have tried to validate the statistics presented by Raisi.
In the budget implementation report for the first four months of 2022, it was reported that the oil revenues collected in Raisi’s government have increased fivefold compared to the previous year. However, by examining the details of this report, one can clearly see the incorrectness of the claims made by the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Doubts Surrounding a Distorted Report
1. The Government is Behind Schedule
Last Saturday, the Court of Audit claimed, without referring to the extent of budget realization, that oil revenues in the first four months of this year have increased approximately fivefold compared to the same period in 2020. According to the 2022 budget law, oil revenue was projected to be 481 trillion tomans in this year’s budget.
According to the Court of Audit, it has now been revealed that the total revenue in the first four months of the year was 66 trillion tomans. Meanwhile, according to the budget law, oil revenues in the first four months of this year should be at least 160 trillion tomans. In other words, the government, according to the budget law presented to the parliament last fall, has only succeeded in achieving 42% of the projected oil revenues.
2. Revenue Growth Due to Global Oil Price Surge
As previously mentioned, this report emphasizes the fivefold growth of collected oil revenues in the first four months of the year compared to the same period under Rouhani’s government. However, the report fails to consider the more than 70% increase in global oil prices.
In fact, the increase in oil revenues is not directly related to the government’s ability to collect money from exports, but rather the surge in global oil prices has been overlooked in this report. Although it is still unclear which institution was the source of this report and whether the figures mentioned are based on estimates by the Court of Audit or if there are documents supporting this report.
It should be noted that the selling price of each barrel of oil in this year’s budget was considered to be $70, but experts believe the average selling price of Iranian oil was over $80. Considering this point, it can be said that despite selling oil at a higher price than predicted, the government still failed to achieve about 60% of the projected revenues.
3. A Currency Sleight of Hand
Another ambiguity mentioned in the Court of Audit’s report is the base currency used to calculate the rial equivalent of this year’s oil revenues. Currently, the currency market sees six different prices for the dollar, each significantly different from the other. It is still unclear which of these six price groups was the basis for preparing this report.
On the other hand, the Court of Audit did not mention the dollar equivalent of government revenues in the first four months of this year compared to last year. Meanwhile, the 2020 Court of Audit report was calculated based on the government exchange rate, but at the beginning of 2022, the thirteenth government made changes in the currency pricing method, fundamentally changing the playing field. Therefore, it is unclear on which exchange rate the Court of Audit’s report was based.
Some experts believe that the oil revenues mentioned in the 2022 budget implementation report were calculated considering the free or NIMA exchange rate. In this case, the secret of the significant difference in oil revenues in the first four months of this year compared to last year can be uncovered. In fact, Raisi’s government, with the help of the Court of Audit, has tried to use currency sleight of hand to exaggerate its exports and oil revenue achievements.
Lost Trust
Considering the points mentioned in this report, the impact of pressures on the Islamic Republic is entirely clear and undeniable, to the extent that Raisi tries to conceal the pressure on Iran’s economy by fabricating statistics. However, the figures announced by the government and parliament in Iran indicate the worsening economic situation due to increased oil restrictions.
For this reason, many economic experts believe that contrary to the claims of the Iranian government, if pressures increase, the economy of the Islamic Republic will certainly face collapse. Some even believe that the continuation and intensification of Trump’s maximum pressure could lead Iran’s economy to the fate of Venezuela. This group of economists believes that the inefficiency of Raisi’s economic team and the lack of success in nuclear negotiations will lead to much more challenging months ahead for the Iranian people.
In fact, the government cannot even sell as much oil as in recent years following the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA and tries to manage public perception by manipulating statistics. However, it seems that people have lost trust in the reports from the thirteenth government. In such circumstances, it seems unlikely that the government will be able to satisfy public opinion with worsening living conditions.
These days, the Iranian people do not believe in Raisi’s honesty and do not recognize him as an informed and intelligent individual to trust his statements. Ultimately, it might be said that by presenting incorrect and deceptive statistics, Raisi has lost the limited social capital he had. Worse yet, oil revenue has not actually increased for the government to rely on to control the situation.
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- Fact-checking the Claims of Government Supporters