Why did the dollar exchange rate soar?
According to Iran Gate’s report, the dollar exchange rate has once again reached a record high in the Tehran foreign exchange market. Reports and observations from market participants indicate that each US dollar is being traded at a price equivalent to 45,000 to 46,000 Iranian rials in the free market, which is considered an unusual and disastrous record in Iran’s economic history.
During this week, the US dollar has entered an upward trend again after overcoming the tensions at the beginning of winter and the injection of currency into the market following the appointment of Mohammad Reza Farzin. Observations from the Tehran foreign exchange market indicate a record of over 45,000 Iranian rials for each US dollar. In other words, the Iranian rial has currently reached its lowest value in history, which signifies an acceleration of the process of the national currency’s depreciation.
What is the reason for the surge in the dollar exchange rate?
In an analysis published by Iran Gate after Mohammad Reza Farzin’s appointment as the head of the Central Bank, it was emphasized that the decrease in the exchange rate in the first week of Farzin’s tenure on Mirdamad Street is temporary and that the tightening of the exchange rate by the Central Bank was announced.
Reports obtained by Iran Gate indicated widespread injection of foreign currency into the free market, which was done with the aim of controlling prices. Therefore, it was expected that by stopping the process of injecting currency into the market, the actors in this field would once again witness price jumps and consecutive records.
Due to the government’s lack of access to foreign currency resources from oil exports and other non-oil export revenues due to sanctions and Iran’s inclusion in the blacklist of the Financial Action Task Force, it was expected that such an event would occur in the foreign exchange market. In other words, it can be said that the government and the central bank have been closed for currency distribution in the market, and the dollar price has also skyrocketed as usual.
The 50,000-toman dollar is on its way.
Most economic analysts believe that the growth of the dollar rate is not unnatural and is not unexpected given the country’s economic situation. On the other hand, many believe that the tools to suppress the dollar rate in the free market are currently not available to the government and the central bank. On the other hand, the budget bill also contains numerous items that will act as an inflationary engine in the coming year, according to economists’ claims.
Many activists predict that breaking the 50,000 toman barrier for the dollar price is highly probable and natural before the arrival of Nowruz 1402. However, experience has proven that suppressing prices in the free market will never be achieved through the actions of the brokers of the Islamic Republic. Therefore, it is said that this record-breaking trend will definitely occur after overcoming a period of tension and volatility in the currency market.
In fact, it is predicted that the US dollar rate in the Tehran foreign exchange market will reach a range of 41,000 toman to 47,000 toman by the end of Bahman month. However, in mid-Esfand or the second half of the last month of this year, the foreign exchange market will witness a price of 50,000 toman for the dollar.
Of course, it should be noted that this scenario will only occur if there are no changes in the policies of the Islamic Republic in dealing with the Western world. Because in the event of diplomatic openness, it is expected that some of Iran’s blocked resources will become available to the government, and naturally, the central bank will take measures to suppress the exchange rate in the free market.
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